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Readiness of Ukrainians to participate in social protests, December 2020

The press release was prepared by Olga Cheryomukhina, intern of KIIS 

 

From December 4 to 8, 2020, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) survey based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The sample is representative for the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine). The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. 2001 interviews were conducted during the survey.

The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1 % - for indicators close to 5%.

 

Introductory comment.  KIIS uses a list of forms of protest borrowed from some international projects, including participation in election campaigns. The question of whether participation in an election campaign is a form of protest or, conversely, a civic duty and a behavior loyal to the authorities is debatable. Part of voters participate in the elections to express their protest, part - to maintain power. We left participation in the elections in the list of forms of protest for comparison with other Ukrainian and international researches. 

 

According to surveys conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the share of those who say they are NOT ready to take part in any mass protests during 2019-2020 has changed from 49% in 2019 by 57% in 2020.

In December 2020, 38% of adults in Ukraine were ready to take part in protests. Compared to previous years, the level of readiness to participate in social protests has decreased significantly (by 10 percentage points compared to 2019).

The willingness of the population to participate in authorized rallies and demonstrations ranges from 11% in 2018 to 10% in 2020, and in unauthorized rallies and demonstrations decreased from 4% in 2018 to 2% in 2019, while in 2020 is 3%.

The largest number of people are NOT ready to take part in any mass protests (57.1%), but are ready to resort to such forms of social protest as participation in the election campaign (15.8%), collecting signatures under collective appeals (12.7 %), authorized rallies and demonstrations (10%).

 

Graph 1. Readiness of Ukrainians for protests, December 2020 (sorted by decreasing)

 

By regions: 

  • The lowest level of readiness to participate in protests is observed in the Southern region (62.6% are not ready for protests), the highest - in the Central (52.2% are not ready for protests). In the Western and Eastern regions, the situation is almost the same (57.3% and 59.3% are not ready to protest, respectively)
  • Regarding regional differences by certain types of protests, the least willing to participate in the election campaign are in the Western and Southern regions (11.6% and 15.8%, respectively), the most in the Eastern region (19%), in the Central - 17.9%. Elsewhere, there are no significant differences by regional distribution

By gender

  • More than half of the surveyed women are not ready to take part in protests (61.4%), among men almost 10 percentage points less (51.9%).
  • Slightly more men than women are willing to participate in election campaigns (17% against 14.8%) and in authorized rallies and demonstrations (13.8% against 7%)
  • However, women are more willing than men to participate in collecting signatures under collective appeals (13.8% against 11.5%).

By type of settlement (city-village): 

  • The level of readiness for protests among the urban population is higher than among the rural population (39.3% against 36.3%)
  • Among the different types of protests, the biggest difference is observed in the readiness to participate in authorized rallies and demonstrations (urban population - 12.4%, rural population - 5.3%), in other significant differences were not found.


Graph 2 shows the dynamics of readiness of Ukrainians to protest for 11 years (2009-2020).  The level of readiness for protests was calculated as follows - 100% minus the number of those who said that "are not ready to take part in protests", minus those who answered "difficult to say and refusal to answer"

Graph 2. Dynamics of readiness of Ukrainians for protests for 11 years, 2009-2020

Annex 1. Formulation of the question in the questionnaire

8. What social protests would you personally be willing to take part in? Please indicate all relevant answers. TRANSFER CARD 8. MARK EVERYTHING NAMED BY THE RESPONDENT

Participation in the election campaign 1
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, claims) 2
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 3
Threat of strike 4
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 5
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 6
Participation in strikes 7
Protest hunger strike 8
Picketing of state institutions 9
Capture of buildings 10
Creation of armed formations independent of power structures 11
Other (WRITE DOWN) ______________ 12
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 13
DIFFICULT TO SAY 14
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 15

 

Annex 2. Tables

What social protests would you personally be willing to take part in? Please indicate all relevant answers (sorted by decreasing interest)

Readiness to take part in protests man woman
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 51,9 61,4
Participation in the election campaign 17 14,8
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, appeals) 11,5 13,8
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 13,8 7
DIFFICULT TO SAY 2,8 3,5
Other (WRITE DOWN) 3,2 2,4
Picketing of state institutions 4,2 1,8
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 5,1 1,7
Participation in strikes 5,3 1,1
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 4,5 1,1
Protest hunger strike 2,4 1
Threat of strike 3,3 0,8
Other (WRITE DOWN) 3,2 2,4
DIFFICULT TO SAY 2,8 3,5
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 1,3 1,3

 

Readiness to take part in protests Western Central Southern Eastern
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 57,3 52,2 62,6 59,3
Participation in the election campaign 11,6 17,9 15,8 19
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, appeals) 11,2 13,5 12,8 13,4
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 8,4 11,4 9,7 10,9
Participation in strikes 4,5 2,2 2,8 2,8
Picketing of state institutions 3,7 3,1 2,2 1,8
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 3,2 2,5 2,6 2,1
Creation of armed formations independent of power structures 2,8 1,6 2 1,1
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 2,6 3,6 2,8 3,9
Capture of buildings 1,3 0,7 1,4 1,4
Threat of strike 1,3 1,5 2,8 2,5
Protest hunger strike 0,9 2 1 2,8
DIFFICULT TO SAY 5,6 2,3 2,4 2,1
Other (WRITE DOWN) 3,7 3,1 1,8 2,1
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 1,3 1,5 1,4 1,1

 

Level of readiness to participate in protests (by regions):
Western Central Southern Eastern
35.8 44 33.6 37.5

 

Readiness to take part in protests Urban population Rural population
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 55,6 60,2
Participation in the election campaign 16,2 15,2
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, appeals) 13,8 10,6
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 12,4 5,3
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 3,8 2,1
Picketing of state institutions 3,3 2,1
Participation in strikes 3,2 2,6
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 2,8 2,3
Threat of strike 2,4 1,2
Creation of armed formations independent of power structures 2 1,8
Protest hunger strike 1,8 1,4
Capture of buildings 1,6 0,3
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 2 0
DIFFICULT TO SAY 3,1 3,5
Other (WRITE DOWN) 2 4,2

 

Level of readiness for protests (by type of settlement):
Urban population Rural population
39,3 36,3

 

 Dynamics of readiness to participate in social protests (2009-2020):

  Feb.06 Apr.09 Sep.12 Nov.13 Feb.14 Dec.14 Dec.16 Dec.17 Dec.18 Dec.19 Dec.20
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 51 52,4 59,1 56,4 50,3 48,8 45,6 53,2 49,2 48,8 57,1
Participation in the election campaign 21,6 23,7 18,5 26,1 30,8 29 35,4 28,9 32 34,1 15,8
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, appeals) 17,4 11,3 11,7 13,2 18,5 16,5 15,5 16,5 16,2 15,6 12,7
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 16,6 15,8 13,8 11,9 17,3 15,8 11,9 9,6 11,1 10,7 10,1
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 3,8 2,4 2,9 2,9 3,6 2,6 2,9 2,8 4 2,9 3,2
Participation in strikes 7,7 7,6 4,4 4,2 5 5,8 3,4 2,9 3,3 3,6 3
Picketing of state institutions 4,8 4 2,8 1,6 4,5 4 2,3 2 2,5 1,8 2,9
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 3,6 3,6 3,1 3,2 4,6 3 2,4 2,3 3,8 2,1 2,6
Threat of strike 5 3,2 3 2,2 3,3 2,3 2,8 1,7 3,7 2,9 2
Creation of armed formations independent of power structures 1,8 1,5 0,6 0,4 1 1,2 0,7 0,6 0,8 1 1,9
Protest hunger strike 0,9 1,1 1,1 0,5 0,5 0,9 1,2 0,7 0,9 0,9 1,7
Capture of buildings 1,6 1,3 1,2 0,5 1,1 0,7 0,9 0,7 0,7 0,7 1,1
DIFFICULT TO SAY 8 4,9 6,9 6,4 7,5 7,9 4,4 5,3 5,9 3,5 3,2
Other (WRITE DOWN) 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,3 1,1 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,1 0,3 2,8
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,5 1,2 0,8 0 1,3

 


28.1.2021
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