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Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine: results of a telephone survey conducted on February 5-7, 2021
The press release was prepared by KIIS Deputy Director Anton Hrushetskyi
During February 5-7, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers 2005 respondents were interviewed living in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea). The sample is representative for the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.
Table 1 shows the rating of parties if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in early February (but after the decision of the National Security and Defense Council) and these parties participated in them. In addition, there is a comparison of the rating of parties with the results of a survey conducted on January 22 (1005 respondents were interviewed) and the results of a survey conducted on December 4-8 (2000 respondents). All surveys were conducted by the method of telephone interviews using the same methodology, which ensures a correct comparison of results. By the asterisk* and bold are highlighted ratings on February 5-7 and January 22, which are statistically significant (ie above error). That is, these are cases when the results of the survey on February 5-7 indicate a significant change.
As of February 5-7, three parties have support at once, which differs within the statistical error, in fact, these three parties "share" the first - third places. In addition, the fourth party lags minimally behind the formal leaders (and its support is lower in terms of error compared to the party that formally ranks third in the ranking). Thus, the "YeS" party would get relatively the most votes, for which 12.2% of all respondents and 18.1% of those who decided on the choice would vote; "OPZZh" party - 11.4% and 16.8%, respectively; the "Sluha Narodu" party - 10.5% and 15.5%; "Batkivshchyna" party - 8.9% and 13.2%. Next are "Syla i Chest" (respectively 4.3% and 6.3%) and the Radical Party (3.5% and 5.2%). "Sharii’s Party" (2.6% and 3.9%), "Holos" (2.5% and 3.7%) and "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" are slightly below the barrier to entry. (2.1% and 3.2%).
Compared to January 22, the ratings of "OPZZh" (-4.3% among all respondents and -3.9% among those who decided) and "Sluha Narodu" (+ 2% among all and + 4.3% among those who decided) changed the most. Although in the case of the "YeS" the rating changed by + 0.6% among all respondents and + 2.8% among those who decided, but formally it is a change within the error (so in this case we can only talk about a certain tendency).
Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Comment of KIIS experts:
First, please note that this survey was conducted by the method of telephone interviews. In a telephone survey, as shown by our experiment, which we conducted in conjunction with the "Democratic Initiatives" Foundation (see the press release of December 28 on our website http://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=991&page=2), respondents are more educated and wealthy than in the face-to-face survey (for example, more people with higher education by 10%). Because of this, the ratings in researches conducted by different methods are slightly different. For example, in telephone polls, P. Poroshenko's support is slightly higher than in a face-to-face poll, and it is unknown which data are more accurate, because there was no census and distribution of the population by education is unknown. Therefore, in this press release, the current results are compared with our other telephone surveys.
Secondly, the obtained results do not provide information on the reasons for the dynamics of ratings, this requires separate researches. However, we note that since the beginning of the year the situation in Ukraine is very dynamic and the public, accordingly, is sensitive to various high-profile events. The January 22 poll coincided with a period of tariff protests (supported by more than 90% of Ukrainians) and the end of a lockdown (to which a number of people are critical), which had a negative effect on government support and was favorable to opposition forces. Prior to the current poll, the authorities took a number of steps to stabilize the situation in the socio-economic sphere, as well as resonant domestic policy measures, the main of which was the decision of the National Security and Defense Council to ban the broadcasting of three TV channels. This could increase both the support of the authorities and some opposition forces.
Thirdly, with regard to the rating of "OPZZh" it should be borne in mind that the rating could have decreased both due to changes in the views of some of its former supporters in view of the NSDC's statements and due to the fact that some of its supporters began to "hide" their real views during the polls. For example, in the first round of the 2019 presidential election, exit polls underestimated the support of Yu. Boiko, as some of his voters are less likely to participate in polls and answer sincerely. A similar trend towards "OPZZh" candidates / the party itself could be observed in the local elections. Therefore, perhaps, even now, given the ban, some respondents simply do not want / are afraid to name their orientations.
Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire
Please imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada are held now, in which such parties participate: [READ THE LIST. PARTIES TO BE READ OUT RANDOMLY. BE SURE TO READ LEADERS]. Would you take part in the election or not? IF "YES": Which party would you vote for? ONE ANSWER (% among all respondents)
(% among the respondents who are going to vote and have decided)