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NATIONAL EXIT-POLL2012 DATA REGARDING RESULTS OF ELECTIONS TO THE VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE

On October 28, 2012, the day of elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the National Exit Poll 2012 Consortium, which is made up of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and the Razumkov Economic and Political Studies Center, has conducted the National Exit Poll 2012.

The Democratic Initiatives Foundation is responsible for the financial and media management of the exit poll. The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology is responsible for scientific management of the project, developing the sample and coordinating the polling. The polling of voters at the exits of polling stations has been conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and Razumkov Center.

Constituents who voted at polling districts (except for special polling districts) make up total population of exit-poll. The sample is representative for Ukraine in general. 19837 of respondents were polled at 400 polling stations. The methodology of “secret ballot” was used.

Statistical sample error taking into account design-effect does not exceed 1.3%, nevertheless there are difficulties to estimate systematic errors, which depend upon many factors (including weather conditions). On the ground of the experience of former exit-polls, which were carried out with the application of the same methodology, we assume that sample error doesn’t exceed 2.5% for the parties (in terms of received votes) and is within the limits of 0.5-1% for the other parties and blocks.

 

National exit-poll’2012 data as of 20.00 regarding results of voting on October, 28 2012:

#

Party name:

 

2 Socialist Party of Ukraine 0,5
3 Communist Party of Ukraine 11,6
4 Political Union “Ridna Vitchyzna” 0,1
5 Party “Ruskyi Bloc” 0,4
6 Nataliia Korolevska’s Party “Ukraiina — Vpered!” 1,6
7 All-Ukrainian Union “Hromada” 0,1
8 Ukrainian National Assembly 0,0
9 Liberal Party of Ukraine 0,1
10 Party “Nova Polityka” 0,1
11 All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” 12,2
12 Ukrainian Party “Zelena Planeta” 0,3
13 Party of Pensioners of Ukraine 0,5
14 Political Party “Nasha Ukraiina” 1,2
15 Political Party “Zeleni” 0,3
16 Party of Greens of Ukraine 0,4
17 Political Party “Vitalii Klychko’s UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms)” 15,4
18 Political Party “Ukraiina Maibutnogo” 0,4
19 All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna” 24,6
20 Party of Regions 28,1
21 Political party “Narodno-Trudovyi Soiuz Ukraiiny” 0,1
22 Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party 0,9
23 I have crossed out everyone/spoiled the bulletin 1,1

During the interview, respondents have been shown bulletins with first five members of each party lists.

 

Coordinator of the “National exit-poll’2012” project — I.Bekeshkina.

Scientific supervisor — N.Kharchenko.

Project manager at the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology — A.Grushetsky..

Project managers at the Razumkov Center — A.Bychenko, M.Mishchenko.

ConsultantsV.Paniotto, P.Lynn.

 

International observers over exit poll and foreign consultants — Ielizavieta Diuk (expert-consultant, Levada Centre, Russia), Oleksii Levinson (expert-consultant, Levada Centre, Russia), Joanna Konieczna-Sałamatin (expert, Institute of Public Affairs, assistant professor, Institute of Sociology, University of Warsaw, Poland), Peter Lynn (professor, University of Essex, UK).

The National exit poll was conducted with financial support of international donors: International Renaissance Foundation, Matra program of the Kingdom of the Netherlands Embassy in Ukraine, the National Endowment for Democracy (USA), UNITER (Ukraine National Initiatives to Enhance Reforms) project “PACT”, and the European Union.


28.10.2012
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