Press release prepared by Vladimir Paniotto and Tatyana Piaskovskaya

Press-release contains the results of the common project of Kiev International Institute of Sociology andRussian non-governmental research organization Levada Center.

Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducted its own public opinion survey during April 29 - May 11, 2014. It was conducted in 110 cities and towns (PSU) and covered all regions of Ukraine, excluding Crimea; the sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
3.3% — for indicators close to 50%;
2,8% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,4% — for indicators close to 5%.

Levada Center conducted the poll during May 23 – 26, 2014, the sample is representative for the population of Russia. 1600 respondents aged 18 and above were surveyed in 130 settlements in 45 regions of Russia. Statistical sample error does not exceed 3,4%.

Ukrainians were asked “What is your general attitude towards Russia now?”, while Russians were provided with the question “What is your general attitude towards Ukraine now?”.

• The mutual attitude became worse. Nevertheless the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia is better than the attitude of Russians towards Ukraine. Comparing to the poll conducted in February the number of Ukrainians with positive attitude towards Russia reduced rapidly (from 78%in February to 52%in May). The percentage of Ukrainians with negative attitude towards Russia got almost three times higher (from 13% in February to 38% in May).

• Such deterioration of relations is observed in all regions[1] but in different ways. The biggest percentage of Ukrainians with positive attitude towards Russia is still in the Eastern (77%, decreased from 92% by 15% since February) and Southern (65%, decreased from 86% by 21%) regions. The number of the Ukrainians with positive attitude towards Russia in the Central region is 43% (decreased from 76% by 33%). The smallest percentage of this group is in the Western region – 30% (decreased from 70% by 40%).

• The number of Russians who has a positive attitude towards Ukraine got almost two times lower comparing to the February data – from 66% to 35%. At the same time, the amount of Russians with negative attitude towards Ukraine increased from 26% to 49%. Moreover, according to the data of Levada Center, 69% of Russians agree with the Russian government about the military conflict with Ukraine, 90% support the annexation of Crimea and 86% believe it is a result of a free will expression of Crimean people.

Picture 1. The dynamics of the positive attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and the positive attitude of Russians to Ukraine

The dynamic of answers to the question “What should the relations between Russia and Ukraine look like, in your opinion?”

• The percentage of those who supports closed border with Russia has increased more than twice since February (from 15% to 32% in May); the same tendency is observed in Russia – from 19% in January to 28% in May (increase by 9%).
• The amount of people who want the relations to be independent and friendly is equal in both countries – 54%. This percentage decreased by 14% (was 68%) for Ukraine and by 5% (was 59%) for Russia comparing to the February data.
• Only 12% (16% in January) of Russians and 8% (12% in February) of Ukrainians support the unification of two countries: their percentage decreased in both countries. In Ukraine, the biggest share of unification supporters is in the Eastern region (26%). In the Southern region there are only 6% of such people, but this data cannot be compared with the previous wave of survey because Crimea was not included in it. Even lowest percentage of unification supporters is in the Western (0%) and in the Central (3%) regions.

Picture2. What should the relations between Russia and Ukraine look like, in your opinion?[2]

Tables

Table 1.  What is you general attitude towards Ukraine/ Russia now?

Table 2. What should the relations between Russia and Ukraine look like, in your opinion?

Table 3. Opinion of Ukrainians about what the relations between Russia and Ukraine should look like(by regions):

[1] Western macroregion: Volynska, Rivnenska, Lvivska, Ivano-Frankivska, Ternopilska, Zakarpatska, Khmelnytska, Chernivetska oblasts; Central macroregion: Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, Sumska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Kirovohradska, Cherkaska, Kyivska oblasts, Kyiv; Southern macroregion: Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizhska, Mykolaivska, Khersonska, Odesska oblasts; Eastern macroregion: Donetska, Luhanska, Kharkivska oblasts.

[2] The line “Ukraine and Russia should be independent” is a sum of two columns from the table 3 – those, who support independence with borders and customs and those, who support independence but without borders and customs (see in the tables below).