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Electoral intentions of the population of Ukraine: Elections to Verkhovna Rada

In a period from June 20 to July 2, 2014 Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducted the nationwide public opinion survey by the customer order. Data was collected from 2040respondents,living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except Crimea), through the method of personal interview.The sample was random with quota selection at the last stage and is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:

3.3% — for indicators close to 50%;
2,8% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,4% — for indicators close to 5%.

 

If the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in the end of June, the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above would vote for the following parties:

  • 12,5%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 9,3% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 7,2% - for “UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko”;

  • 6,1% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” ;

  • 3,4% - for “Solidarnist”;

  • 3,1% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 3,1%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 2,7%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 1,6% - for Partiya regioniv;

  • 1,2% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 1,0% - for “Pravyi sector”;

  • 3,0%  - for all other parties in total;

  • 3,0% would spoil the ballot;

  • 17,8% decided not to participate;

  • 25,2% have not decided yet whom to vote for.

 

Therefore, if the parliamentary elections took place in in the end of June and those, who has not decided yet, did not come to the elections, about 54% of  voters would participate and their votes would be distributed in the following way:

  • 23,1%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 17,2% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 13,3% - for “UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko”;

  • 11,2% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” ;

  • 6,2% - for “Solidarnist”;

  • 5,7% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 5,7%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 4,9%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 2,9% - for Partiya regioniv ;

  • 2,3% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 1,9% - for “Pravyi sector”;

  • 5,5%  - for all other parties in total.

 

If the block of parties “UDAR” and “Solidarnist” was also allowed to participate, the votes of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above would be distributed in the following way:

  • 12,8%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 10,7% - for the block of parties “UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko” and “Solidarnist”;

  • 9,3% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 5,8% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” ;

  • 3,4% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 3,3%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 3,1%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 1,6% - for Partiya regioniv;

  • 1,3% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 1,0% - for “Pravyi sector”;

  • 3,0%  - for all other parties in total;

  • 2,9% would spoil the ballot;

  • 17,9% decided not to participate;

  • 24,3% have not decided yet whom to vote for.

Respectively, if the block of parties “UDAR” and “Solidarnist” took part in the elections, about 55% of  voters would participate and their votes would be distributed in the following way:

  • 23,2%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 19,3% - for the block of parties “UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko” and “Solidarnist”;

  • 16,8% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 10,6% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” ;

  • 6,1% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 6,0%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 5,6%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 2,9% - for Partiya regioniv;

  • 2,3% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 1,9% - for “Pravyi sector”;

  • 5,3%  - for all other parties in total.

There were three proposed variants of the answer to the question about what system should be used for the parliamentary elections:

  •  49% believe that all MPs should be elected exclusively by the majority system;

  •  22% believe that current mixed system should remain, whereby some MPs will be selected by the majority system, some – by the party lists;

  •  6,5% believe that all MPs should be chosen only by the party lists, when people vote just for a particular party;

  •  22,5% have not come up to the decision yet.

 

 

Addition

Question about the nominal parliamentary elections was stated as the following:

Would you participate in the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, if they took place the next Sunday? IF “YES”Who would you vote for, if there were the following parties in the ballot?

  % of the whole population aged 18 and above % of those, who wants to participate and has decided whom to vote for
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 9.3 17.2
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 3.1 5.7
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 6.1 11.2
Communist party of Ukraine (Petro Symonenko) 2.7 4.9
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 1.2 2.3
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.4 0.8
Partiya regioniv (Mykhailo Dobkin) 1.6 2.9
Political party «Solidarnist» (Yurii Lutsenko) 3.4 6.2
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 1.0 1.9
Radical party of O. Lyashko 12.5 23.1
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 3.1 5.7
Political party «UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko» 7.2 13.3
Another party 2.6 4.7
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 3.0 ---
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 17.8 ---
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 25.2 ---
TOTAL 100.0 100.0

 

Who would you vote for if the list was like this one?

  % of the whole population aged 18 and above % of those, who wants to participate and has decided whom to vote for
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 9.3 16.8
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 3.4 6.1
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 5.8 10.6
Communist party of Ukraine (Petro Symonenko) 3.1 5.6
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 1.3 2.3
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.3 0.6
Partiya regioniv (Mykhailo Dobkin) 1.6 2.9
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 1.0 1.9
Radical party of O. Lyashko 12.8 23.2
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 3.3 6.0
Block of political parties «UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko» and “Solidarnist” (Y. Lutsenko) 10.7 19.3
Another party 2.6 4.7
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 2.6 ---
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 17.9 ---
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 24.3 ---

 

The question about preferable election system was stated as the following one:

On this card there are the main points of view about which system should be used in the next parliamentary elections in Ukraine. Which system would you choose?

All MPs should be chosen only by the majority system (ie, people have only vote for the particular candidates in their constituency) 49.0
Current mixed system should remain, whereby some MPs will be selected by the majority system, some – by the party lists 22.0
All MPs should be chosen only by the party lists (ie, people have to vote just for a particular party) 6.5
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 22.5

4.7.2014
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