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Opinion of the Ukrainian population about the elections to the Ukrainian Parliament, June, 2008

From June 6 to June 16, 2008 the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted All–Ukrainian poll. 2039 respondents at the age of 18 years and older living in all regions of Ukraine, Crimea and Kiev according to statistical selection were surveyed by the method of interview.

The statistical error of selection (with probability 0.95 and at design–effect 1.5) doesn't exceed the following: 3.5% for indicators which are close to 50%, 3,0% – for indicators which are close to 25%, 2,0% – for indicators which are close to 10%.

• In the first half of June this year for the Party of Regions were ready to vote 22,8% of  Ukrainian voters, Block of Yulia Tymoshenko – 18%, Block NUNS – 5,1%,  Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn – 4,5%, Communist Party – 4.2%,  Block of  Leonid Chernovetsky – 1,4%, Block of N. Katerynchuk – 0,6%, Socialist Party – 0,5%, other parties and blocks – 1,4%, and against all parties and blocks – 10,4% of all voters.

• Appropriate calculations show that if elections to the Ukrainian Parliament were held in mid-June this year, five parties and blocks most likely would get to the Ukrainian Parliament. These parties would get likely:

  • Party of Regions – 188 seats,
  • Block of Yulia Tymoshenko – 148,
  • Block NUNS – 42,
  • Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn – 37,
  • Communist Party – 35.

• The Party of Regions has a major support in the East (43, 4%) and South (33, 9%) regions, Block of Yulia Tymoshenko – in the West (31%) and Central (25%),  Block NUNS – in the Western region (12, 3%), Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn – Central (6, 6%) and West (5, 2%), Communist Party – in the East (6, 8%) and the South (5, 7%).

 

Application.

The distribution of electoral intentions among the population at the age of 18 years and older, in accordance with the answers to the question: If next Sunday will be elections to the Ukrainian Parliament, take you part in the vote? And if so, for whom you vote for if the election list included the following parties / blocks? (in percent) Ukraine in general and its four regions shown in the table below:

    Macro-regions
Parties and blocks Ukraine in general, % Western Central Southern Eastern
Party of Regions 22.8 6.9 9.8 33.9 43.4
Block of Yulia Tymoshenko 18.0 31.0 25.0 11.6 3.0
Block NUNS 5.1 12.3 3.7 2.8 2.3
Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn 4.5 5.2 6.6 3.9 1.6
Communist Party 4.2 1.3 3.0 5.7 6.8
Block of  Leonid Chernovetsky 1.4 0.2 4.1 0.2 0.5
Block of N. Katerynchuk 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0
Socialist Party 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.5
Other parties and blocks 1.4 2.4 0.7 1.1 1.8
Would have voted against all 10.2 8.4 11.0 12.7 8.0
Would not take part in the voting 17.1 13.6 19.1 16.8 18.4
There is no telling 14.1 17.5 15.0 10.3 13.9
In all 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

18.6.2008
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