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Electoral intentions of voters in the elections to Verkhovna Rada

In a period from August 23 to September 2, 2014 Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducted the nationwide public opinion survey by the customer order. Data was collected from 2040respondents,living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except Luhansk and Crimea) through the method of personal interview.The sample was random with quota selection at the last stage and is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

It was impossible to conduct the survey in Luhansk region because of the military operations. Interviews, which should have been conducted in the Luhansk region, were held in the Donetsk region instead.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:

3.3% — for indicators close to 50%;
2,8% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,4% — for indicators close to 5%.

 

If the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in the end of August, the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above would vote for the following parties:

  • 21,5% - for the “Block of Petro Poroshenko” (Y. Lucenko, V. Klychko, O. Bogomolets);

  • 7,6%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 5,6% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” (A.Grytsenko);

  • 4,5%  - for “Sylna Ukraina” (S.Tigipko);

  • 3,7% - for “Patrioty Ukrainy” (A. Yatseniuk, O. Turchynov);

  • 3,5% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna"  (Y. Tymoshenko);

  • 2,7%  - for Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy (P. Symonenko);

  • 2,5% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda” (O. Tyagnybok);

  • 2,2% - for Partiya regioniv (O. Yefremov);

  • 1,7% - for “Samopomich” (A. Sadovyi);

  • 1,0% - for “Pravyi sector” (D. Yarosh);

  • 1,3%  - for all other parties in total;

  • 2,3% would spoil the ballot;

  • 14,9% decided not to participate;

  • 24,9% have not decided yet whom to vote for.

 

Therefore, if the parliamentary elections took place in in the end of August  and those, who has not decided yet, did not come to the elections, about 58% of  voters would participate and their votes would be distributed in the following way:

  • 37,1% - for the “Block of Petro Poroshenko” (Y. Lucenko, V. Klychko, O. Bogomolets);

  • 13,1%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 9,7% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” (A.Grytsenko);

  • 7,8%  - for “Sylna Ukraina” (S.Tigipko);

  • 6,4% - for “Patrioty Ukrainy” (A. Yatseniuk, O. Turchynov);

  • 6,1% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna"  (Y. Tymoshenko);

  • 4,6%  - for Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy (P. Symonenko);

  • 4,4% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda” (O. Tyagnybok);

  • 3,8% - for Partiya regioniv (O. Yefremov);

  • 2,9% - for “Samopomich” (A. Sadovyi);

  • 1,8% - for “Pravyi sector” (D. Yarosh);

  • 2,3%  - for all other parties in total.

Addition

The question about the nominal parliamentary elections was stated like the following one:

Whom would you vote for, if there were these parties in the ballot?

  % of the whole population aged 18 and above % of those, who wants to participate % of those, who wants to participate and has already decided whom to vote for
Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarnist” (Yuriy  Lucenko, Vitaliy Klychko, Olga Bogomolets) 21.5 25.2 37.1
Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy (Petro Symonenko) 2.7 3.2 4.6
Party “Patrioty Ukrainy” (Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Oleksandr Turchynov, Arsen Avakov) 3.7 4.4 6.4
Partiya regioniv (Oleksandr Yefremov) 2.2 2.6 3.8
Partiya rozvytku  Ukrainy (Sergiy Larin) 0.4 0.5 0.7
Party “Batkivshchyna”  (Yulia Tymoshenko) 3.5 4.2 6.1
Party “Svoboda” (Oleg Tyagnybok) 2.5 3.0 4.4
Party “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” (Anatoliy Grytsenko) 5.6 6.6 9.7
Party “Democratychnyi alians” (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.2 0.2 0.3
Party «Nove jittya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.3 0.3 0.4
Party “Obiednannya Samopomich” (Andriy Sadovyi) 1.7 2.0 2.9
Party “Pravyi Sektor” (Dmytro Yarosh) 1.0 1.2 1.8
Party “Sylna Ukraina” (Sergiy Tigipko) 4.5 5.3 7.8
Radical party of O. Lyashko  7.6 8.9 13.1
For another party 0.5 0.6 0.9
Would spoil the ballot 2.3 2.7 ---
Would not participate 14.9 --- ---
Difficult to answer 24.9 29.3 ---

3.9.2014
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