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National exit-poll 2014: who conducts, methodology, public release of the results

National exit-poll will be conducted on the 26th of October 2014, the day of the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, by the Consortium “National exit-poll 2014”, which includes Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and Alexander Razumkov Centre for Economic and Political Studies.

Project management, financial and media managements of exit poll will be provided by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation. The poll will be held by Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Razumkov Centre; scientific management, sample design and work coordination will be performed by KIIS.

Sample

The general population of exit poll are voters who has voted at the polling stations on the territory of Ukraine (except for special areas - hospitals, prisons, military units, foreign stations). The sample will be representative for  Ukraine in general as well as for its four regions (West, Central, East, South). It will be two-staged cluster sampling: on the first stage – selection of polling stations with equal probability from each region in a proportion to the number of stations in this region; on the second stage - systematic (stepwise) selection of voters at the polling station. Constant pitch of selection will be used during the day of the election. The results will be presented on a national scale and in terms of four macro-regions:

Western region: Volynska, Rivnenska, Lvivska, Ivano-Frankivska, Ternopilska, Zakarpatska, Khmelnytska, Chernivetska oblasts (regions); 

Central region: Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, Sumska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Kirovohradska, Cherkaska, Kyivska oblasts (regions) and Kyiv; 

Southern region: Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizhska, Mykolaivska, Khersonska, Odesska oblasts (regions);  

Eastern region: Donetska, Luhanska, Kharkivska oblasts (regions).

Amount of polling stations: 400 (200 for each research company).

Sample size: approximately 17000 respondents (depends on the turnout).

Average amount of respondents in each station: approximately 45.

Amount of interviewers: 2-3 people for each polling station, approximately 1000 in total; everyone of them will go through the special training.

Sample error: statistical sample error with the design effect will not exceed 1.3%, but there are systematic errors that depend on various factors. Based on experience from previous exit polls with the same methodology, we assume that sample error will not exceed 2.5% for the leaders of the race and will be in the range of 0.5-1% for other parties. In the parliamentary elections in 2012 the maximum sample error for all the parties did not exceed 1.9%.

Data collection and questionnaire: the method of "secret ballot" will be used, since it reduces the number of refusals and significantly improves the reliability of exit poll data. The technique: during the interview instead of a direct question - "Whom have you voted for?" - respondent fills in the questionnaire himself, starting with this question. In addition, the questionnaire may contain questions about gender, age group, education, and other characteristics which may have an impact on the decision whom to vote for. In this case, respondents are asked to fill in the demographic questionnaire, but it is always pointed out that it is not necessary.

The main aim of the project is to ensure effective public control over the transparency of the election procedure, and to obtain information about socio-demographic structure of the party's electorate.

Ukraine is already experienced in exit polls conduct, this tradition was started by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation: it organized an exit poll and the TV show "Night of the election" for the first time on the parliamentary elections in 1998. Since then, the project participants have acquired considerable experience in the organization and implementation of this kind of polls. Democratic Initiatives Foundation organized exit polls during the parliamentary elections in 1998, 2002, 2006, 2007 and 2012; the two rounds of presidential elections in 1999; three rounds of the presidential elections in 2004; two rounds of the presidential elections in 2010 and presidential elections in 2014. Since 1999 the Kiev International Institute of Sociology participated in all these exit-polls, and since 2004  Razumkov Centre has been participating in the consortium as well. This year it will be the 14th National exit poll, which is organized by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation; 13th national exit poll, which is conducted by KIIS and 9th exit poll, which is conducted by Razumkov Centre (several local exit polls were also held in Mukachevo and Kiev).

Public release of the National exit-poll 2014 results will take place in Ukrinform (st. Bohdana Khmelnytskogo 8/16, Kyiv, Ukraine) on October 26, 2014:

19:45 press-conference start

20:01 public release of the preliminary results right after the closing of the polling stations, based on data, that has been collected during the two hours before the end of voting and was dictated over the phone.

23:00 press conference three hours after the polling stations closed, with the public release of updated data, collected from the sites where the work was being continued until the polling stations closed (also dictated over the phone).

Detailed report on the results of exit poll will be released after the receipt of paper forms, approximately on November 4-5.

Moreover, Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation is planning to publish a book about the results of National exit-poll 2014 as it usually does.

Promo story and three promo videos will be released till the exit-poll starts.

National exit-poll 2014 is financially supported by the international donors:

  • International Fund “Vozrojdeniye”
  • Matra Program from the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine
  • National Endowment for Democracy (USA)
  • PACT, the UNITER project
  • European Union

The project will be overseen by the Supervisory Board, which includes the leaders of public organizations, leading Ukrainian journalists, local and foreign experts. Consultations and monitoring of the National exit poll implementation will be provided by international experts.

More information about the public release of the National exit poll 2014 results can be found on the following web-resources:

  1. Web-site “National exit poll 2014”- http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua
  2. Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation official website - http://dif.org.ua/
  3. Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation official Facebook page - https://www.facebook.com/deminitiatives
  4. Kyiv International Institute of Sociology official website – www.kiis.com.ua
  5. Razumkov Centre official website - http://www.razumkov.org.ua

Information will be disclosed to the public simultaneously in Ukrainian and in English. In addition to the above mentioned web resources, information will be distributed via e-mail server.

 


13.10.2014
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