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Electoral intentions of Ukrainian voters: in the case of early parliamentary elections

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociologyin conjunction with the Kyiv center for political studies and conflictology conducted a survey of the adult population of Ukraine in the period from July 10 to July 14, 2006. There were interviewed 2095 respondents aged 18 and older, living in 110 villages, towns and cities in all regions including Crimea and Kyiv, by four selection at each stage. The selection was stratified random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older.

Statistical error of selection with a probability of 0.95 does not exceed:

• 2.2% for the indicators close to 50%,

• 2,0% for the indicators close to 25% and 75%,

• 1,5% for the indicators close to 12% and 88%,

• 1% for the indicators close to 5% and 95%,

• 0.5% for the indicators close to 1% and 99%,

The theoretical value of the statistical error without taking into account the design effect; for most indicators the impact of design effect used in the survey stochastic selection increases the error not more than 1.6 times.


Key findings:

• If the election was held during the poll, 56% of the voters would participate in the voting, in Parliament such parties and blocs could pass:

• The party of regions is 50.3% ± 2.2% of the votes,

• The block of Yulia Tymoshenko - 22,4% ± 1.9% of the votes,

• The block of “Our Ukraine” - 10.1% ± 1.4% of the votes,

• The Socialist party - 3.2% ± 0,8% of the votes,

• The Communist party - 2.8% ± 0,7% of the votes.

 

Questions about early elections to the Verkhovna Rada in this survey were asked as follows. If the current composition of Parliament will be dissolved and will be scheduled early parliamentary elections to the Verkhovna Rada whether you take part in them?

After that all those who didn’t say that they are not going to participate in the voting, raised the following question: for which party would you probably to vote in the early election?

The distribution of the electoral intentions among all population aged 18 years and older according to the answers to these questions (in percentage) in Ukraine in general and in four regions - Western, Central, Southern and Eastern political parties and blocks which by the number of supporters took the first 10 places, as follows:

 

The ratings of the 10 parties and blocks
(percentage of adult population aged 18 years and older)

Variants of answers Ukraine in general Regions
Western Center Southern Eastern
The party of regions 28.3 6.0 10.0 44.2 56.5
The Block of Yulia Tymoshenko 12.6 21.4 19.0 6.5 2.2
The Block of "Our Ukraine" 5.7 11.8 7.1 3.3 0.7
The Socialist party of Ukraine 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.2 0.4
The Communist party of Ukraine 1.6 0.2 1.3 3.0 1.8
The Block of Natalia Vitrenko "National opposition" 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9
The Ukrainian national Block of Kostenko and Plyushch 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.4
Civil block «PORA-PRP» 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.0
All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom" 0.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
The party of green 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0
The other 35 parties and blocks together 1.2 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.7
Would not support any party 3.3 2.9 5.4 1.5 2.9
Would not take part in the voting 25.9 24.7 27.3 27.9 23.0
Still undecided 17.6 24.3 25.6 9.2 10.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 

If the parliamentary elections were held between 10 and 14 July, 56% of voters probably would take part in the voting and distribution of votes would be the following:

Variants of answers Óêðà¿íàâ ö³ëîìó Ðåã³îíè
Çàõ³ä Öåíòð ϳâäåíü Ñõ³ä
The party of regions 50.2 11.8 21.3 70.3 84.6
The Block of Yulia Tymoshenko 22.3 41.9 40.4 10.3 3.3
The Block of "Our Ukraine" 10.1 23.1 15.0 5.3 1.0
The Socialist party of Ukraine 3.2 3.9 4.9 3.5 0.7
The Communist party of Ukraine 2.9 0.4 2.8 4.7 2.7
The Block of Natalia Vitrenko "National opposition" 1.0 0.4 0.3 1.5 1.3
The Ukrainian national Block of Kostenko and Plyushch 0.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.7
Civil block «PORA-PRP» 0.7 2.6 0.3 0.3 0.0
All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom" 0.6 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
The party of green 0.5 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.0
The other 35 parties and blocks together 2.1 4.8 2.1 0.9 1.3
Would not support any party 5.8 5.7 11.5 2.4 4.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 


19.7.2006
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