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Protest movements

Julia Sakhno, the fellow of theKiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)

From December 6 to December 17, 2014 the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted All–Ukrainian poll of public opinion. There were interviewed 2011 respondents aged 18 and older, living in all regions of Ukraine (including Kiev), except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Survey was conducted only in areas controlled by Ukraine in Lugansk region. Survey was conducted in both areas of Donetsk region: territories controlled by Ukraine and territories that are not controlled by Ukraine. The selection is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older.

The statistical error of selection (with probability 0.95 and at design–effect 1.5) doesn't exceed the following: 3.5% for indicators which are close to 50%, 2,8% – for indicators which are close to 25%, 2,0% – for indicators which are close to 10%, 1.4%  – close to 5%.


According to surveys conducted by the Kyiv international Institute of sociology, in December of 2014 in comparison with the beginning of the year the level of readiness to participate in the protest movements hasn’t changed significantly: 42.2% of the adult population of Ukraine are ready to participate in the protest movements in February 2014, in December the share of such people was 43.3%.

 

Chart 1

 

The greatest number of people as before is ready to take part in the following forms of social protest [1]: election campaigns (29.0%), signatures collection for collective recall letters (16.5%), sanctioned meetings and demonstrations (15.8%).

Significantly fewer people are willing personally to take part in strikes (5.8%), picketing public institutions (4.0%), unauthorized meetings (3.0%), to boycott a decision administration or government (2.6%) or threat of strike (2.3%). About 1% of adult Ukrainian population in case of need ready for such steps as creating independent armed forces from the government, the hanger strike or occupation of buildings.

 

Chart 2

 

 

Men and women, people of all ages (except for persons older than 70 years), population of cities and villages are ready to participate in protest movements to a high degree.

The overall level of readiness to participate in protest movements increases with the level of education - is primarily due to the fact that among people with high education level are more of those who are willing to participate in election campaigns and to take part in gathering signatures for collective recall letters.

By regions, the highest level of readiness to participate in the protest movements is in the western part of Ukraine (59% will take part in protest movements there). A few less willing to participate in the actions of social protest among population of the southern regions (46%) and least of all - 35% in the central part of Ukraine and 35% in the eastern part of Ukraine.


 

Chart 3

 

 

Tables.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question "In which social protest actions would you be willing to participate? Please indicate all appropriate answers" (December 2014, alternatives - in decreasing order the frequency of mention).

participation in the election campaigns 29.0%
signatures collection for collective appeals (claims, appeals) 16.5%
sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 15.8%
 participation in strikes 5.8%
picketing government agencies 4.0%
unauthorized meetings and demonstrations 3.0%
boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration, authorities) 2.6%
threat of strike 2.3%
creating independent armed forces from the government 1.2%
hanger strike 0.9%
occupation of buildings 0.7%
other 0.4%
I'm not ready to participate in any mass protests 48.8%
It is difficult to say 7.9%

 

Table 2. Readiness to participate in actions of protest movements - distribution by gender (December 2014, alternatives - in order to reduce the average frequency of mentions).

  men women
participation in the election campaigns 28% 30%
signatures collection for collective appeals (claims, appeals) 16% 17%
sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 19% 13%
 participation in strikes 7% 4%
picketing government agencies 6% 2%
unauthorized meetings and demonstrations 4% 3%
boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration, authorities) 3% 2%
threat of strike 4% 1%
creating independent armed forces from the government 2% 0%
hanger strike 1% 1%
occupation of buildings 1% 0%
other 1% 0%
I'm not ready to participate in any mass protests 44% 53%
It is difficult to say 10% 6%

 

Table 3. Readiness to participate in actions of social protest - the age distribution (December 2014, alternatives - in order to reduce the average frequency of mentions).

  18-29 years 30-39 years 40-49 years 50-59 years 60-69 years 70 + years
participation in the election campaigns 27% 31% 28% 30% 33% 26%
signatures collection for collective appeals (claims, appeals) 15% 16% 23% 17% 18% 11%
sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 17% 19% 22% 15% 13% 7%
 participation in strikes 9% 9% 6% 4% 4% 0%
picketing government agencies 5% 6% 6% 2% 2% 1%
unauthorized meetings and demonstrations 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1%
boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration, authorities) 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 1%
threat of strike 1% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1%
creating independent armed forces from the government 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%
hanger strike 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0%
occupation of buildings 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0%
other 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
I'm not ready to participate in any mass protests 45% 46% 44% 48% 51% 65%
It is difficult to say 9% 7% 9% 9% 6% 5%

 

Table 4. Readiness to participate in actions of social protest - distribution by level of education (December 2014, alternatives - in order to reduce the average frequency of mentions).

  Incompletesecondary education Completesecondary education Vocationalsecondaryeducation Undergraduate education /higher education
participation in the election campaigns 17% 26% 30% 32%
signatures collection for collective appeals (claims, appeals) 12% 14% 16% 20%
sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 11% 12% 17% 19%
 participation in strikes 3% 3% 5% 9%
picketing government agencies 2% 3% 4% 5%
unauthorized meetings and demonstrations 2% 3% 2% 4%
boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration, authorities) 0% 3% 2% 3%
threat of strike 3% 2% 2% 3%
creating independent armed forces from the government 0% 1% 2% 1%
hanger strike 1% 0% 1% 1%
occupation of buildings 0% 1% 1% 1%
other 1% 0% 1% 0%
I'm not ready to participate in any mass protests 64% 53% 47% 44%
It is difficult to say 5% 10% 8% 6%

 

Table 5. Readiness to participate in actions of social protest - distribution by type of locality (December 2014, alternatives - in order to reduce the average frequency of mentions).

  Ruralpopulation Urban population
participation in the election campaigns 30% 28%
signatures collection for collective appeals (claims, appeals) 20% 15%
sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 18% 15%
 participation in strikes 6% 5%
picketing government agencies 5% 4%
unauthorized meetings and demonstrations 2% 3%
boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration, authorities) 2% 3%
threat of strike 1% 3%
creating independent armed forces from the government 2% 1%
hanger strike 0% 1%
occupation of buildings 1% 0%
other 0% 1%
I'm not ready to participate in any mass protests 47% 50%
It is difficult to say 6% 8%

 

Table 6. Readiness to participate in actions of social protest - the distribution of the macro-regions (December 2014, alternatives - in order to reduce the average frequency of mentions)

  Western Central Southern Eastern (with Donbass)
participation in the election campaigns 39% 22% 31% 27%
signatures collection for collective appeals (claims, appeals) 20% 12% 24% 11%
sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 24% 13% 15% 12%
 participation in strikes 10% 6% 3% 4%
picketing government agencies 8% 2% 5% 1%
unauthorized meetings and demonstrations 3% 5% 3% 1%
boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration, authorities) 5% 2% 2% 1%
threat of strike 3% 3% 1% 2%
creating independent armed forces from the government 2% 1% 2% 0%
hanger strike 1% 0% 0% 2%
occupation of buildings 1% 0% 2% 0%
other 0% 0% 1% 1%
I'm not ready to participate in any mass protests 35% 56% 48% 54%
It is difficult to say 6% 9% 6% 10%

* Western region: Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lvov, Rivne, Ternopol, Khmelnitsky, Chernivtsi regions; Central region: m. Kyiv, Kievska oblast, Vinnitsa, Zhitomir, Kirovograd, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv region, Southern region: Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhe, Nikolayev, Odessa, Kherson region, Eastern region, Kharkov, Donetsk region (the survey wasn’t conducted in Lugansk  region, interviews from Lugansk moved to Donetsk region).

Table 7. The dynamics of readiness to participate in actions of social protest (2009-2014, alternatives - in questionnaire order).

  February 2009 April 2009 September 2012 November 2013 February2014 December  2014
participation in the election campaigns 21.6% 23.7% 18.5% 26.1% 30.8% 29.0%
signatures collection for collective appeals (claims, appeals) 17.4% 11.3% 11.7% 13.2% 18.5% 16.5%
sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 16.6% 15.8% 13.8% 11.9% 17.3% 15.8%
 participation in strikes 5.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.2% 3.3% 2.3%
picketing government agencies 3.8% 2.4% 2.9% 2.9% 3.6% 2.6%
unauthorized meetings and demonstrations 3.6% 3.6% 3.1% 3.2% 4.6% 3.0%
boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration, authorities) 7.7% 7.6% 4.4% 4.2% 5.0% 5.8%
threat of strike 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9%
creating independent armed forces from the government 4.8% 4.0% 2.8% 1.6% 4.5% 4.0%
hanger strike 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% 0.7%
occupation of buildings 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 1.0% 1.2%
other 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 1.1% 0.4%
I'm not ready to participate in any mass protests 51.0% 52.4% 59.1% 56.4% 50.3% 48.8%
It is difficult to say 8.0% 4.9% 6.9% 6.4% 7.5% 7.9%

 

If you have any comments, please do not hesitate to writeto Julia Sakhno, number of mobile phone: 0683224777


[1] Is the participation in elections is a form of social protest - question discussion: the part of those who chose this answer, undoubtedly considers elections as an opportunity to express their protest against the authorities, but the part of those who vote are loyal to the authorities.


29.12.2014
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