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How do the attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians to Ukraine has changed

The press release prepared by Maxim IEnin

 

The press release contains results of the joint project of the Kiev international Institute of sociology and the Russian non-governmental research organization «Levada-Center».

From December 6 to December 15, 2014 the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted All–Ukrainian poll of public opinion. There were interviewed 2011 respondents aged 18 and older, living in all regions of Ukraine (including Kiev), except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Survey was conducted only in areas controlled by Ukraine in Lugansk region. Survey was conductedin both areas of  Donetsk region: territories controlled by Ukraine and territories that are not controlled by Ukraine. The selection is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older.

The statistical error of selection (with probability 0.95 and at design–effect 1.5) doesn't exceed the following: 3.5% for indicators which are close to 50%, 2,8% – for indicators which are close to 25%, 2,0% – for indicators which are close to 10%, 1.4%  – close to 5%.

The Levada-center from 23 to 26 January 2015 conducted a survey on a representative selection for Russian; 1600 respondents aged 18 years and older in 130 settlements of 45 regions of the country. The statistical error of the data doesn’t exceed 3.4%.

Ukrainians were asked the question: "What is your general attitude to Russia?". Russians were asked the question: "What is your general attitude to Ukraine?".

The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians to Ukraine has become more negative for the last three months. However, the attitude of Ukrainians to Russia is still more positive than the attitude of Russians to Ukraine (tabulation 1, diagram 1). Compared to the September survey, the number of positively Pro-Russian Ukrainians decreased very significantly on 9% (from 48% in September to almost 37% in December). The share of negatively-minded of Ukrainians to Russia significantly increased (from 41% in September to almost 48% in December).

Deterioration of attitudes towards Russia is observed in all regions. Percentage of the positively-minded population to Russia in the southern region decreased from 59% to 50.4%, in Central region – from 32% to 28.9%, in the Western region – from 25% to 19.3%. The share of positively-minded population towards Russia especially decreased (on 32%) in the eastern region – from 83% to 50.9% (tabulation 2, 3).

In Russia the share of positively-minded Russians to Ukraine decreased significantly – from 12% to 24%. Number of the negative-minded during the same period increased significantly – from 55% to 63% (Tabulation 1, diagram 1).

Press-release on this theme can be found in section «press releases and reports» or on this link.

Diagram 1. Dynamic of positive attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians to Ukraine


 




Dynamics of Russian and Ukrainian answers on the question "What would you like to see relations between Ukraine and Russia?". These data are presented in tabulations 4, 5, 6 and diagrams 2, 3.

 

  • Compared to September in Ukraine significantly increased the number of those who want closed borders with Russia (45% – in September, 50% – in December 2014). Similar trend is observed in Russia where the number of those who want closed border with Ukraine increased by 6% (from 26% in September 2014 to 32% in January 2015).

  • The number of people who want a friendly and independent relations of the two states with open borders without visas and customs in Russia decreased by almost 10% from 62% to 52 %, in Ukraine – by 2% from 44% to 42%.

  • Supporters of independence (percentage of those who want independence with borders and customs, and those who want independence, but without borders and customs) increased in Ukraine by 3% in December 2014, compared to September 2014. This indicator reached a maximum level – 92% (diagram 2).

  • Supporters of independence (percentage of those who want independence with borders and customs and those who want independence but without borders and customs) increased in Russia by 6% in January 2015 compared to September 2014. In Russia this indicator, as in Ukraine, reached a maximum level – 84% (diagram 3).

  • 7% of the Russian population and 3% of Ukrainian population want union Ukraine and Russia into one state (diagrams 2,3).

  • Most supporters of union Ukraine and Russia in the East, but here this number has decreased by almost half compared with September (from 13.3% to 7.1%). Least of union supporters are in the West (0.2%) and in the Centre (1.6%).

 

Diagram 2. What relationships with Russia are wanted in Ukraine?*

 

*Line on the diagram "Ukraine and Russia must be independent" is the sum of the first two columns in a tabulation 4, it is percent those, who want independence with borders and customs, and those, who want independent, but without borders and customs (see tabulation table below).




Diagram 3. What relationships with Ukraine are wanted in Russia?*


*Line on the diagram "Ukraine and Russia must be independent" is the sum of the first two columns in a tabulation 4, it is percent those, who want independence with borders and customs, and those, who want independent, but without borders and customs (see tabulation table below).


Tabulations

Tabulation 1. «What is your general attitude to Ukraine?»

  

Relation of Ukrainians to Russia, % Relation of Russians to Ukraine, %
Date Very good /mainly good Very bad/mainly bad Difficulty to say Total Data Very good /mainly good Very bad/mainly bad Difficulty to say Total
April.08 88 7 5 100 March 08 55 33 12 100
September 08 88 9 3 100 September 08 38 53 10 100
February           09 91 5 4 100 January 09 29 62 10 100
May 09 93 4 3 100 May 09 33 56 11 100
October 09 92 6 3 100 September 09 46 44 10 100
March 10 90 6 4 100 March 10 59 29 12 100
June 10 92 6 3 100 July 10 70 22 9 100
October 10 93 4 3 100 October 10 67 21 12 100
November 11 80 13 7 100 September 11 68 23 9 100
February 12 85 9 6 100 January 12 64 25 12 100
September 12 83 11 6 100 September 12 74 17 10 100
February 13 85 8 7 100 February 13 69 21 9 100
May 13 81 10 9 100 May 13 72 18 9 100
November 13 82 10 8 100 September 13 69 22 8 100
February 14 78 13 9 100 January 14 66 26 9 100
May 14 52 38 10 100 May 14 35 49 17 100
September 14 48 41 11 100 September 14 32 55 13 100
December 14 36,5 47,5 16 100 January 15 24 63 13 100

 

 

Tabulation 2. «What is your general attitude to Russia?»

Distribution by Ukraine macro-regions (data for September 2014)

 Variants of answers West Central South East(with Donbas) Ukrainein general
Very good 2.9 1.9 19.0 38.6 14.4
Mainly good 22.3 30.0 39.8 44.4 33.7
Mainly bad 35.6 28.3 17.7 6.2 22.6
Very bad 32.1 25.6 9.1 4.7 18.7
Difficulty to say 7.1 14.2 14.4 6.0 10.7
Total 100 100 100 100 100



Tabulation 3. «What is your general attitude to Russia?»

Distribution by Ukraine macro-regions (data for December 2014)

 Variants of answers West Central South East(with Donbas) Ukrainein general
Very good 2.6 2.9 9.0 17.1 7.4
Mainly good 16.7 26.0 41.4 33.8 29.1
Mainly bad 38.2 27.4 22.1 13.3 25.5
Very bad 31.4 22.9 13.6 19.8 21.7
Difficulty to say 10.9 14.8 14.0 26.0 16.3
Total 100 100 100 100 100

 

Tabulation 4. What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?
(data for December 2014)

 

  In Ukraine
Date They should be the same as with other countries with closed borders, visas, customs                  Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state Difficulty to say Total
April.08 10 67 20 3 100
September 08 17 66 16 2 100
February           09 8 68 23 1 100
May 09 10 65 23 2 100
October 09 11 67 19 3 100
March 10 11 67 19 3 100
June 10 12 70 16 2 100
October 10 10 67 20 2 100
November 11 13 67 16 1 100
February 12 13 69 16 2 100
September 12 11 72 14 3 100
February 13 13 68 16 3 100
May 13 11 69 14 5 100
November 13 12 73 9 6 100
February 14 15 68 12 5 100
May 14 32 54 8 5 100
September 14 45 44 5 6 100
December 14 50 42 3 5 100

     

Data In Russia
  They should be the same as with other countries with closed borders, visas, customs                  Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state Difficulty to say Total
March 08 19  56  19  100
September 08 24  52  13  11  100
January 09 29  51  12  100
May 09 25  55  14  100
September 09 25  55  13  100
March 10 25  55  14  100
July 10 17  64  13  100
October 10 16  60  18  100
September 11 16 63 14 6 100
January 12 16 61 16 8 100
September 12 14 60 20 6 100
February 13 13 64 18 6 100
May 13 19 58 15 8 100
September 13 23 55 16 6 100
January 14 19 59 16 6 100
May 14 28 54 12 6 100
September 14 26 62 7 5 100
Data 32 53 7 8 100

 

Tabulation 5. What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?
(by regions of Ukraine, September 2014)

Date They should be the same as with other countries with closed borders, visas, customs                  Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state Difficulty to say Total
Western 71.3 23.1 0.2 4.4 100
Central 57.3 33.2 1.9 7.4 100
South 35.5 46.8 4.9 12.6 100
Eastern 8.4 77.7 13.3 0.6 100

 

 

Tabulation6. What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?
(by regions of Ukraine,
December 2014)

 

Date They should be the same as with other countries with closed borders, visas, customs                  Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state Difficulty to say Total
Western 71.9 23.8 0.2 3.8 100
Central 63.9 30.6 1.6 3.9 100
South 35.9 55.8 5.0 3.3 100
Eastern 19.3 62.7 7.1 9.8 100

 

 


6.2.2015
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