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Socio-political situation in Ukraine: March 2015

Main findings:

  • In case of elections, tree parliamentary parties (Petro Poroshenko Bloc, Samopomich and Batkivschyna) could get the most increase, while “Narodnyi front” is at the biggest risk of losing support.

  • Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko and Andriy Sadovyi are the leaders of presidential rating.

  • If to compare with the previous parliamentary election, Batkivschyna nearly doubled their support, and Samopomich raised popularity by one third.

  • People in Ukraine generally have negative expectations for the next twelve month, but are cautiously optimistic for a long term period.

  • A relative majority of Ukrainian citizens support European integration course of Ukraine, as well as accession to NATO, but there are significant regional differences in opinions on these issues (especially regarding NATO accession).

Between February 26  and March 11, 2015 Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted the nation-wide public opinion poll on a client’s request. The poll was conducted in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) using a four-stage stratified sampling design with quota selection at the last stage, which is representative for adult population of Ukraine (aged 18 and over). Totally 2040 respondents were interviewed face-to-face during the field stage.

In Donetsk and Luhansk regions the poll was conducted only in territories controlled by Ukraine’s government forces.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed 3.3% for indicators close to 50%; 2.8% for indicators close to 25%; 2.0% for indicators close to 10%; 1.4%  for indicators close to 5%.

Electoral attitudes of Ukrainian people: parliamentary election

If the parliamentary election for the Verkhovna Rada in Ukraine were held in the middle of March 2015, voting-age citizens (18+) were likely to act as follows:

  • 16.1% were going to vote for “Petro Poroshenko Bloc”,
  • 10.3% – for Self-Reliance party (“Samopomich”),
  •  7.0% – for All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (“Batkivshchyna”),
  •  6.2% – for Opposition Bloc,
  •  5.0% – for Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko,
  •  4.0% – for People's Front (“Narodnyi front”),
  •  3.1% – for Right Sector party (“Pravyi sector”),
  •  2.9% – for Civic Position party (“Gromadyanska pozitsiya“),
  •  2.5% – for All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
  •  1.6% – for Communist party of Ukraine,
  •  0.7% – for UDAR,
  •  1.0% expressed a support to other parties,
  •  2.8% were going to cross out all parties / spoil the ballot,
  • 16.0% decided not to participate in voting,
  • 19.7% were unsure or have not decided yet for whom to vote,
  • 1.2% refused to answer the question.

Therefore, if the parliamentary election were held in the middle of March and those, who unsure or undecided did not participate in elections, voter turnout would be about 60%, and the share of the vote received by the parties would be:

  • 26.7% - “Petro Poroshenko Bloc”,
  • 17.1% - Self-Reliance party (“Samopomich”),
  • 11.5% - All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (“Batkivshchyna”),
  • 10.2% - Opposition Bloc,
  •  8.4% - Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko,
  •  6.6% - People's Front (“Narodnyi front”),
  •  5.2% - Right Sector party (“Pravyi sector”),
  •  4.8% - Civic Position party (“Gromadyanska pozitsiya”),
  •  4.1% - All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
  •  2.6% - Communist party of Ukraine,
  •  1.1% - UDAR,
  •  1.7% - other parties.

Those results were verified using secret ballot method, which showed consistent results.

Electoral attitudes of Ukrainian people: Presidential election

If the presidential election in Ukraine were held in the middle of March 2015, the results by all voting-age citizens (18+) would be:

  • 20.0% would vote for Petro Poroshenko,
  • 6.6% – for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  • 6.5% – for Andriy Sadovyi,
  • 4.4% – for Oleh Lyashko,
  • 4.1% – for Anatoliy Hrytsenko,
  • 3.0% – for Arseniy Yatsenyuk,
  • 2.8% – for Dmytro Yarosh,
  • 1.6% – for Yuriy Boyko,
  • 1.4% – for Oleh Tyahnybok,
  • 1.4% – for Serhiy Tihipko,
  • 1.0% – for Mykhailo Dobkin,
  • 0.9% – for Petro Symonenko,
  • 0.3% – for Viktor Medvedchuk,
  • 2.9% would opt for some other candidate,
  • 4.6% would cross out all parties / spoil the ballot,
  • 14.9% decided not to participate in voting,
  • 21.9% were undecided,
  • 1.7% refused to answer the question.

Therefore, if the presidential election were held in the middle of March and those, who unsure or undecided did not participate, we can assume that voter turnout would be about 57%, and the votes of likely voters would be distributed as follows:

  • 35.2% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  • 11.6% – for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  • 11.4% – for Andriy Sadovyi,
  • 7.7% – for Oleh Lyashko,
  • 7.1% – for Anatoliy Hrytsenko,
  • 5.2% – Arseniy Yatsenyuk,
  • 5.0% – for Dmytro Yarosh,
  • 2.8% – for Yuriy Boyko,
  • 2.5% – for Oleh Tyahnybok,
  • 2.4% – for Serhiy Tihipko,
  • 1.7% – for Mykhailo Dobkin,
  • 1.6% – for Petro Symonenko,
  • 0.6% – for Viktor Medvedchuk,
  • 5.1% – for other candidate.


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Public expectations of the economic situation and personal life satisfaction

  • People in Ukraine generally have negative expectations for the near future.  Majority of Ukrainians (64%) think that the economic situation in Ukraine will worsen over the next 12 month (34.4% expect the situation to get much worse, and 29.3% - a little worse). Only 0.9% feel that in a year the situation in our country will be significantly better, and 9.3% expressed an opinion that the situation will be a little better. About 17% of respondents believe that the economic situation in Ukraine will not change, and the rest 9.5% did not answer the question.

  • Such opinion is prevalent in all regions. The proportion of people who expecting the economic situation to be worse is: 51.6% in Western Ukraine (with a 13.2% of those who think that the next 12 month will be better), 62.7% in Central oblasts (in contrast to 12.4% with a positive forecasts), 74.5% in South (compared to 7.1%), 71.6% in East (compared to 5.5%), 74.8% in Donbas (compared to 0.8%).

  • At the same time Ukrainian citizens are rather optimistic about the situation in Ukraine in a long term period: 7.4% believe that for the next 5 years Ukraine’s economic situation will get a lot better, and 34.8% expect it to be a little better. On the contrary, about 13% of Ukrainians think that in 5 years the situation will get a lot worse, and 10.4% - little worse. About 11.3% of respondents believe that the economic situation in Ukraine in five years will not change, and 23.1% did not answer the question.

  • People in the West and Center are more positive about the next five years. In Western oblasts 52.5% are expecting the economic situation in 5 years to be a lot or a little better (while 17.6% expecting the economic situation to be worse), and in Central Ukraine 50.6% have positive views of the future (in contrast to 19.4% with a negative expectations).

  • People in South and East are less optimistic. In the South 29.3% are expecting significant or slight improvement in the economic situation in five years (in contrast to 38.9% of those who expect worsening), and 29.6% do so in East (whereas 27.5% expecting worsening).

  • In Donbas region 14.6% believe the Ukraine’s economic situation to be better in a long term period, and 29.2% are expecting worsening. At the same time 45.5% are feeling undefined about the future, and find it difficult to predict how the economic situation in Ukraine could change. 

  • Only 1.4% of Ukrainians are fully satisfied with their lives, and 9% are fairly satisfied. The vast majority of Ukrainians (63%) are dissatisfied with their personal situation now, 32.2% of which are very dissatisfied, and 31.2% are fairly dissatisfied. The rest 23.9% are partly satisfied, partly dissatisfied, and 2.3% were unsure or refused to answer the question.

  • Dissatisfaction outweighs satisfaction in all regions of Ukraine: in West  54.8% are dissatisfied (while 11.5% are satisfied), in Center 64.9% dissatisfied (8.7% satisfied), in South 68.6% dissatisfied (5.8% satisfied), in East 62.8% dissatisfied (16.6% satisfied), and in Donbas 84.5% dissatisfied (4% satisfied)

 

Ukraine’s foreign relations

  • Slightly more than a half of Ukraine’s citizens (51.4%) think that Ukraine should move towards EU accession, while10.5% prefer course towards joining Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. About 24.7% of Ukraine’s citizens hold an opinion that Ukraine should join neither EU, nor the Customs Union, and 13.3% are undefined with their preferences or refused to answer.

  • Pro-European course is supported by majority of people in West and Central oblasts. In the West 73.7% support joining EU (whereas 2.7% prefer Customs Union, and 15.1% are against both unions), and in the Center the proportion of EU supporters is 55.8% (4.8% are for the Customs Union, and 25.5% think that Ukraine should join neither EU nor the Customs Union).

  • In the South, East and Donbas public opinions on preferable path of integration divided into three almost equal groups. In South 32.2% are in favour of EU, 21.8% prefer Customs Union, 31.4% are against both EU and Customs Union. In East 32.2% support joining EU, 19% are for the membership of the Customs Union, and 32.7% are against both options. In Donbas 28.5% favour joining EU, 28.5% prefer Customs Union, and 23.6% think that Ukraine should join neither EU nor the Customs Union.

  • If the referendum on NATO membership were held on March 2015, 43.3% of Ukraine’s citizens would vote for the accession to NATO. The percentage of those who oppose joining NATO is 33.4%. The rest would not vote (9.6%) or undecided (13.7%).

  • There are significant regional differences in public opinions on NATO. Only in Western oblasts membership of NATO is supported by absolute majority of population – in this region 63% are likely to vote for the accession to NATO, and 14.9% - against. In Central oblasts proportion of supporters outweighs, but it is lesser than a half – 47.3% support accession to NATO, 29% - oppose.

  • In South, East and Donbas people oppose joining NATO. In South 24.7% are likely to vote for the accession to NATO, while 54.8% are going to vote against. In Eastern oblasts (outside Donbas) the corresponding proportions are: 26.2% for the accession to NATO, 49.5% against. In Donbas 26% are likely to vote for, 51.2% - against NATO. 

Appendix

Distribution of answers on survey questions

If the parliamentary election were held next Sunday, would you be likely to vote? IF “YES”: Whom would you vote for, if the list of parties was like this one?

  Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Political party “Petro Poroshenko Bloc” (Yuriy Lutsenko, Olha Bohomolets) 16.1 17.8 19.1 15.5 12.5 4.1
Political party People's Front (“Narodnyi front”) (Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Oleksandr Turchynov) 4.0 4.0 6.3 1.3 1.9 2.4
Political party Self Reliance Union (Samopomich) (Andriy Sadovyi, Hanna Hopko, Semen Semenchenko) 10.3 17.1 10.4 5.0 5.8 4.9
Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko 5.0 7.1 5.2 3.8 4.3 0.0
Political party All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (“Batkivshchyna”) (Yulia Tymoshenko) 7.0 7.1 7.7 7.9 5.8 4.1
Political party “Opposition Bloc” (Sergiy Liovochkin, Vadym Rabinovych, Borys Kolesnikov, Yuriy Boyko) 6.2 0.9 1.8 8.4 15.1 20.3
Political party All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” (Oleh Tyahnybok) 2.5 3.4 3.1 1.3 1.4 0.0
Communist party of Ukraine (Petro Symonenko) 1.6 0.0 0.7 4.2 3.1 3.3
Political party Civic Position (“Gromadyanska pozitsiya”) (Anatoliy Hrytsenko) 2.9 3.6 3.1 0.4 3.6 0.8
Political party Right Sector (“Pravyi sector”) (Dmytro  Yarosh) 3.1 4.9 3.1 3.3 1.4 0.8
Political party UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.8
Other party 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 1.0 4.9
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 2.8 1.1 2.3 1.7 6.3 4.1
DON’T KNOW 19.7 18.0 21.2 23.8 16.6 21.1
WOULD NOT VOTE 16.0 11.8 13.8 21.3 19.2 26.0
REFUSAL 1.2 1.8 0.4 1.3 1.4 2.4

 

If the presidential election were held next Sunday, would you be likely to vote? IF “YES”: Whom would you vote for, if the list of candidates was like this one?

  Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Yuriy Boyko 1.6 0.2 0.8 5.0 2.4 3.3
Anatoliy Hrytsenko 4.1 5.8 4.1 0.8 4.3 1.6
Mykhailo Dobkin 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.8 0.8
Oleh Lyashko 4.4 5.1 4.6 5.0 3.6 0.8
Viktor Medvedchuk 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0
Petro Poroshenko 20.0 23.0 24.6 15.1 15.4 5.7
Andriy Sadovyi 6.5 12.5 6.2 4.2 2.2 0.8
Petro Symonenko 0.9 0.0 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.4
Yulia Tymoshenko 6.6 7.8 6.3 7.5 5.5 4.9
Serhiy Tihipko 1.4 0.2 0.4 2.9 2.2 6.5
Oleh Tyahnybok 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.8 1.2 0.8
Dmytro Yarosh 2.8 4.0 3.0 2.9 1.9 0.0
Arseniy Yatsenyuk 3.0 3.4 4.6 0.4 1.9 0.0
Other 2.9 1.1 0.6 2.1 8.2 8.1
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL CANDIDATES / SPOIL THE BALLOT 4.6 1.6 3.9 5.0 6.3 14.6
WOULD NOT VOTE 14.9 10.0 12.7 19.7 18.5 27.6
DON’T KNOW 21.9 21.2 24.5 22.6 18.5 20.3
REFUSAL 1.7 2.0 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.6

 

Over the next 12 months, how do you think the general economic situation in Ukraine will be? Would you say it will... ?

  Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Get a lot worse 34.4 21.8 26.7 56.1 44.0 60.2
Get a little worse 29.3 29.8 36.0 18.4 27.6 14.6
Stay the same 17.0 24.3 16.6 10.5 13.2 11.4
Get a little better 9.3 12.7 11.8 5.4 5.5 0.0
Get a lot better 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.7 0.0 0.8
DON’T KNOW, REFUSED 9.5 10.9 8.3 7.9 9.6 13.0

 

And over the next 5 years, how do you think the general economic situation in Ukraine will change?

  Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Get a lot worse 13.0 8.3 6.0 27.2 18.8 27.6
Get a little worse 10.4 9.3 13.4 11.7 8.7 1.6
Stay the same 11.3 9.6 9.1 14.2 15.9 10.6
Get a little better 34.8 45.4 40.9 21.8 24.3 12.2
Get a lot better 7.4 7.1 9.7 7.5 5.3 2.4
DON’T KNOW, REFUSED 23.1 20.3 20.8 17.6 27.2 45.5

 

Could you please tell me, whether you satisfied or dissatisfied with your life these days?

  Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Very dissatisfied 32.2 18.9 31.6 37.2 38.0 65.0
Fairly dissatisfied 31.2 35.9 33.3 31.4 24.8 19.5
Partly satisfied, partly dissatisfied 23.9 31.2 23.6 23.0 19.7 8.9
Fairly satisfied 9.0 10.0 7.6 5.0 14.4 2.4
Very satisfied 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 2.2 1.6
DON’T KNOW 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.5 0.2 1.6
REFUSED 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.8

 


26.3.2015
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