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Electoral preferences of the Ukrainian population, May 2015

From May 19 to May 29, 2015 the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted All–Ukrainian poll. 2022 respondents at the age of 18 years and older living in 108 regions of Ukraine (except for Crimea) according to statistical selection were surveyed by the method of interview.

In Lugansk region surveys were conducted only on the territory controlled by Ukraine. In Donetsk region surveys were conducted in areas controlled by Ukraine and Donetsk (which are uncontrolled by Ukraine).

The statistical error of selection (with probability 0.95 and at design–effect 1.5) doesn't exceed the following: 3,3% for indicators which are close to 50%, 2,8% – for indicators which are close to 25%, 2,0% – for indicators which are close to 10%, 1,4 – for indicators which are close to 5%.

If presidential elections were held in late May this year, Ukrainian population at the age of 18 years and older

  • 13,6% would vote for Petr Poroshenko,

  • 7,2% - for Yulia Tymoshenko,

  • 4,2% - for Oleg Lyashko,

  • 3,8% - for Andrei Sadovoy,

  • 2,8% - for Anatoliy Gritsenko,

  • 1,7% - for Dmitry Yarosh

  • 1,6% - for Sergey Tigipko,

  • 1,5% - for Yuriy Boiko,

  • 1,2% - for Oleg Tyagnibok,

  • for other candidates – 4.9%,

  • 7,8%  - planned to cross out all candidates or to spoil a voting ballot,

  • 24,8% - decided not to vote,

  • and 25% – have not decided for whom to vote.

So, if presidential elections were held in late May and those who are undecided, as usual, would not come to the elections, 42 per cent of all voters would participate in the voting and among these candidates, the votes would be distributed as follows:

  • 32% - would vote for Poroshenko,

  • 17% - for Yulia Tymoshenko,

  • 10% - for Oleg Lyashko,

  • 9% - for Andrei Sadovoy,

  • 7% - for Anatoliy Gritsenko,

  • 4% - for Dmitry Yarosh,

  • 4% - for Sergey Tigipko,

  • 4% - for Yuriy Boiko,

  • 3% - for Oleg Tyagnibok,

  • 2% - for Mikhail Dobkin,

  • 1% - for Petr Simonenko,

  • 9.4% - for other candidates.


If parliamentary elections were held in late May 2015, Ukrainian population at the age of 18 years and older -

  • 8% would vote for the Party "Block Poroshenko",

  • 6% - for the party "Union Samopomich",

  • 6% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Batkivshina",

  • 5% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,

  • 4% - for the "Opposition block",

  • 2,1% - for the political party "Gromadanska pozicia (Anatoliy Gritsenko)",

  • 1,8 - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom",

  • 1,6% - for the political party "Narodnyi Front",

  • 1,6% - for the political party "Right Sector",

  • 1,0% - for the party of Sergey Tigipko "Strong Ukraine",

  • 2% - for other parties,  

  • 8,4% - planed to cross out all candidates or to spoil a voting ballot,

  • 26,5% - decided not to vote,

  • 25.9% - haven’t decided for whom to vote.


So, if parliamentary elections were held in late May and those, who are undecided, would not come to the elections, 39 per cent of all voters would participate in the voting and among these candidates, the votes would be distributed as follows:

  • 21,2% - would vote for the Party "Block Poroshenko",

  • 15,8% - for the party "Union" Samopomich",

  • 15,3% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Batkivshina",

  • 12% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,

  • 9,7% - for the "Opposition block",

  • 5,4% - for the political party "Gromadanska pozicia (Anatoliy Gritsenko)",

  • 4,6% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom",

  • 4,1% - for the political party "Narodniy Front",

  • 4,1% - for the political party "Right Sector",

  • 2,6% - for the political party of Sergey Tigipko "Strong Ukraine",

  • 1,5% - for the political party "Ydar of Vitaliy Klitschko",

  • 3.8% - for other parties.


 

Application  

If next Sunday will be held elections of the Ukrainian President, would you take part in the voting? If "Yes" what would be your choice, if the follows candidates participated in the election?

 

  Candidates The middle of May 2015probably 49%would vote  
% from all citizens aged 18 years % of those who are willing to participate in the voting and choose for whom to vote 
1 Poroshenko Petr 13.2 32.0
2 Tymoshenko Yulia 7.0 17.0
3 Oleg Lyashko 4.1 9.9
4 Andrei Sadovoy 3.7 9.0
5 Anatoliy Gritsenko 2.7 6.5
6 Dmitry Yarosh 1.6 3.9
7 Sergei Tigipko 1.6 3.9
8 Yuriy Boyko 1.4 3.5
9 Oleg Tyagnibok 1.2 2.8
10 Mikhail Dobkin 0.6 1.5
11 Petr Simonenko 0.4 1.0
12 Viktor Medvedchuk 0.2 0.5
13 Other candidates 3.4 8.4
14 Will not participate in the elections 24.1 -
15 Hard to say 24.3 -
16 To cross out all candidates/to spoil a voting ballot 7.6 -
17 Refusal to answer 2.9 -
  Total 100 100

 


The distribution of the candidates' supporters in regions

(% of all people in the regions aged 18 and older)

Candidates Macro-regions
Western Central Southern Eastern
Poroshenko Petr 17.0 19.4 8.5 4.6
Tymoshenko Yulia 8.6 9.1 5.4 3.4
Oleg Lyashko 6.6 4.7 3.5 0.9
Andrei Sadovoy 7.4 3.6 1.1 2.5
Anatoliy Gritsenko 4.9 2.8 1.5 1.1
Dmitry Yarosh 1.8 1.7 2.4 0.5
Sergei Tigipko 0.4 1.3 2.8 2.1
Yuriy Boyko 0.2 0.2 2.2 3.9
Oleg Tyagnibok 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0
Mikhail Dobkin 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3
Petr Simonenko 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.7
Viktor Medvedchuk 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
Other candidates 5.9 2.7 4.2 1.6
Will not participate in the elections 13.1 22.7 22.0 40.7
Hard to say 24.2 19.1 32.6 23.0
To cross out all candidates/to spoil a voting ballot 2.7 10.2 10.2 6.4
Refusal to answer 4.5 0.6 2.0 5.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 

If next Sunday will be held elections of the Ukrainian President, would you take part in the voting? If "Yes" what would be your choice, if the follows parties and blocks participated in the election?

  Parties and blocks The middle of May 2015probably 49% would vote
% from all citizens aged 18 years % of those who are willing to participate in the voting and choose for whom to vote
1 Party "Block Poroshenko" 8.3 21.2
2 Party "Union" Samopomich" 6.2 15.8
3 All-Ukrainian Union "Batkivshina" 6 15.3
4 Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko 4.7 12.0
5 "Opposition block" 3.8 9.7
6 Political party "Gromadanska pozicia (Anatoliy Gritsenko)" 2.1 5.4
7 All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom" 1.8 4.6
8 Political party "Narodniy Front" 1.6 4.1
9 Political party "Right Sector" 1.6 4.1
10 Political party of Sergey Tigipko "Strong Ukraine" 1 2.6
11 Political party "Ydar of Vitaliy Klitschko" 0.6 1.5
12 All-Ukrainian agrarian associations "Zastyp" 0.4 1.0
13 Communist Party of Ukraine 0.3 0.8
14 Other 0.8 2.0
15 To cross out all parties/to spoil a voting ballot 8.4 -
16 Will not participate in the elections 26.5 -
17 Hard to say/I don’t know 25.9 -
18 Total 100 100


The distribution of the supporters of parties and blocks in regions

(% of all people in the regions aged 18 and older)

  Western Central Southern Eastern
Party "Block Poroshenko" 12.4 8.8 7.9 3.4
Party "Union" Samopomich" 6.9 5.5 3.9 1.8
All-Ukrainian Union "Batkivshina" 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.2
Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko 12.0 7.2 2.6 2.1
"Opposition block" 7.8 6.8 5.5 3.4
Political party "Gromadanska pozicia (Anatoliy Gritsenko)" 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.6
All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom" 0.0 1.4 7.6 7.6
Political party "Narodniy Front" 4.1 1.7 1.3 1.4
Political party "Right Sector" 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2
Political party of Sergey Tigipko "Strong Ukraine" 3.5 2.2 0.7 0.7
Political party "Ydar of Vitaliy Klitschko" 4.5 0.8 0.2 0.9
All-Ukrainian agrarian associations "Zastyp" 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0
Communist Party of Ukraine 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.0
Other 0.6 0.5 1.5 0.7
To cross out all parties/to spoil a voting ballot 5.3 11.8 10.0 5.3
Will not participate in the elections 16.3 26.1 24.2 41.1
Hard to say/I don’t know 22.0 22.3 31.7 29.4
Total 100 100 100 100

 


11.6.2015
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