During the year 2015 percentage of those who want to vote for joining the European Union was ranging from 46% (September 2015) to 53% (December 2015), and on average, with annual data combined, was 49.6% what is not statistically significantly different from the data of the poll held in December 2014 (53.3%, difference is within statistical error). Thus, despite some ranging, the willingness of residents to vote for Ukraine's accession to the European Union has not changed over the past year.

* Surveys have not been conducted in AR of Crimea since March 2014, data are presented for Ukraine without AR of Crimea.

As it was before, the attitude to the idea of joining the European Union differs substantially in different macro regions of Ukraine. If referendum on Ukraine`s joining the European Union had been held in December, 2015, in Western region 78% would have voted for the integration, in Central - 58%, in South - 41%, in Eastern - 29%.

Western region: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; South region: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Eastern region: Kharkivs`ka, Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.

Attitudes of the population of Ukraine to the idea of Ukraine joining the Customs Union

The idea of Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan does not have great support amongst the citizens of Ukraine. If referendum on whether Ukraine should join the Customs Union had been held in December, 2015, 17% of population of Ukraine would have been voted for Ukraine joining the Customs Union, 57% would have been against, 26% have not decided yet or would not have participated in referendum.

If those who have not decided how to vote, as usual, had not come to referendum on Ukraine`s integration with the Customs Union, about 73% of those who have a right to vote would have been participated. Distribution of votes would have been as follows (actually, these indicators are the closest to possible results of referendum if it had been held in the beginning of December, 2015): 23% - for membership in the Customs Union, 77% - against.

Attitude to the integration with the Customs Union has not changed over the past 12 month: 18% were ready to vote for joining the Customs Union in December, 2014, now (December, 2015) it is 17% (difference is within statistical error).

* Surveys have not been conducted in AR of Crimea since March 2014, data are presented for Ukraine without AR of Crimea.

 By macro regions: s in December, 2015 5% would have voted for joining the Customs Union in Western and Central regions, 29% - in South region, 33% - in Eastern.

Western region: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; South region: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Eastern region: Kharkivs`ka, Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.

Desired direction of integration

In addition to questions about a hypothetical referendum on joining the EU and the Customs Union, respondents were asked which direction of integration they believe to be more desirable for Ukraine.

Overall, in December, 2015, giving their opinion on which direction of foreign policy Ukraine should choose, the majority (52%) of respondents named joining the EU as a preferable direction, and 15% believe that Ukraine should follow the direction of joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. In addition, 21% are against both the EU and the Customs Union, and believe that Ukraine should develop independently, without joining any of these associations.

Comparing to September, 2015, the percentage of those who choose the neutral direction (against both the EU and the Customs Union) decreased from 27% to 21%, while the percentage of those who prefer European direction increased from 44% to 52%. Share of those who support union with the Customs Union has not changed during that time (17% - in September, 2015, 15% - in December, 2015, the difference is within statistical error).

* In February 2015 the question was formulated as follows: “Which direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take? – Joining the European Union, joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, or joining neither the EU nor the Customs Union”. Surveys have not been conducted in AR of Crimea since March 2014, data are presented for Ukraine without AR of Crimea.

By macro regions. Pro-European sentiments still prevail in Western and Central macro regions: 78% and 58%, respectively, support the idea of joining the EU. The share of supporters of integration with the EU also dominates in South macro region (39%), and yet significantly many respondents prefer alliance with Russia (23%) or not joining any of the organizations (26%). In the East, the majority (34%) believe that desired direction of integration is joining the Customs Union, 27% - neither the EU nor the Customs Union, and 27% - for EU integration.

Western region: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; South region: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Eastern region: Kharkivs`ka, Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.

ADDITION

Table 1. “Imagine, please, that now there is a referendum on whether Ukraine should join the European Union. You may vote for joining, against joining or choose not to participate in voting. What is your choice?”, %, December 2014 – December 2015

Surveys have not been conducted in AR of Crimea since March 2014, data are presented for Ukraine without AR of Crimea.

Table 2. “Imagine, please, that now there is a referendum on whether Ukraine should join the European Union. You may vote for joining, against joining or choose not to participate in voting. What is your choice?”, by macro regions, December 2015

Western region: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; South region: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Eastern region: Kharkivs`ka, Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.

Table 3. “If now there was a referendum on whether Ukraine should join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, how would you vote - for joining the union, against joining or choose not to participate in voting?”, %, December 2014 – December 2015

Surveys have not been conducted in AR of Crimea since March 2014, data are presented for Ukraine without AR of Crimea.

Table 4. “If now there was a referendum on whether Ukraine should join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, how would you vote - for joining the union, against joining or choose not to participate in voting?”, by macro regions, December 2015

Western region: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; South region: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Eastern region: Kharkivs`ka, Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.

Table 5. “In your opinion, which direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take –“, %, February 2015 – December 2015*

*In February 2015 the question was formulated as follows: “Which direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take? – Joining the European Union, joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, or joining neither the EU nor the Customs Union”. Surveys have not been conducted in AR of Crimea since March 2014, data are presented for Ukraine without AR of Crimea.

Table 6. “In your opinion, which direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take?”, by macro regions, %, December 2015

Western region: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; South region: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Eastern region: Kharkivs`ka, Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.

Survey data and other materials of research are available on the website of National data bank (Омнібус КМІС 2015/12) or on request via e-mail j.sakhno@kiis.com.ua.

For details please contact Yulia Sakhno: j.sakhno@kiis.com.ua