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Changes in the attitude of the Ukrainians toward Russia and of the Russians toward Ukraine

Press release by Tetyana Piaskovska

Mutual hostility of Ukraine and Russia remains to be the general tendency. As it was before, attitude of the Ukrainians toward Russia is better than one of the Russians toward Ukraine. Attitude of the Ukrainians toward Russia has not changed much since September 2015, attitude of the Russians toward Ukraine has gone worse.

Press release contains the results of conjoint project of Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and Russian non-governmental research organization “Levada-Center”.

In a period of February 5-16, 2016 Kyiv International Institute of Sociology has conducted own public opinion poll in Ukraine. Data were collected from 2020 respondents living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except the AR of Crimea) through personal interviews. Sample is stochastic and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk region survey was conducted only on the territories controlled by Ukraine. In Donetsk region survey was conducted both on territories that are and that are temporarily not controlled by Ukraine.

The statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design–effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% – for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% – for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% – for indicators close to 5%, 0.7% - for indicators close to 1 or 99%.

“Levada-Center” conducted the poll on January 22-25, 2016 with the representative all-Russian sample consisting of 1600 people aged 16 and above in 137 settlements of 48 regions of the country. Research was conducted at respondents’ homes using the method of personal interview. Statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.


During the research Ukrainians were asked “What is your general attitude toward Russia?”, Russians were asked “What is your general attitude toward Ukraine?”

  • Mutual hostility is still a general trend. As it was before, attitude of the Ukrainians toward Russia is better than one of the Russians toward Ukraine. Attitude of the Ukrainians toward Russia has not changed much since September 2015, attitude of the Russians toward Ukraine has gone worse. In Ukraine 36% of respondents have positive attitude toward Russia (34% in September 2015), in Russia toward Ukraine – 27% of respondents (33% in September 2015). That is, the amount of positively disposed Russians is by 9% smaller than the amount of positively disposed Ukrainians, while the attitude of the Ukrainians toward Russia has not changed since September 2015 (2 percentage points increase is statistically insignificant), and the attitude of the Russians toward Ukraine became more negative (5 percentage points down).

  • The amount of Ukrainians who are negatively disposed toward Russia decreased by 6 percentage points comparing to September 2015 (from 53% in September 2015 to 47% in January 2016). In Russia the amount of those negatively disposed is 59% what is by 3 percentage points bigger comparing to the data of previous poll (56% in September 2015)

  • The majority of those positively disposed toward Russia is concentrated in Eastern (55%) and South (44%) regions, the least amount of them is in Western region (21%). In Central region 29% of respondents have positive attitude toward Russia.

  • The majority of those negatively disposed toward Russia is concentrated in Western region (65%), the least amount of them is in Eastern region (22%). In Central region 55% of respondents reported to have negative attitude, in South – 42%.

Commentary of Tetyana Piaskovska: The poll has been conducted before the end of the trial of Nadiia Savchenko, and before her last word and decision on hunger strike. These events could have had a significant impact on public opinion, that is why current situation with the attitude toward Russia may be slightly different from the data calculated from the results of the poll.


Graph 1. Dynamics of the positive attitude of the population of Ukraine toward Russia and of the population of Russia toward Ukraine (% of those who have positive and very positive attitudes toward another country)

Dynamics of answers to the question “What do you want the relations between Ukraine and Russia to be like?”

  • Tendencies in Ukraine did not change comparing to September data: the amount of those who want customs and closed borders with Russia is 42% out of all respondents (was 46% in September). Also 43% want relations between Russia and Ukraine to be friendly and independent with open borders and no visa regime and customs (was 45% in September), 4% want to unite two countries in one state (was 2%)

  • In Russia situation has changed since September: the amount of those who want customs and closed borders increased from 25% to 32%, the amount of those who want relations between Russia and Ukraine to be friendly and independent with open borders and no visa regime and customs decreased from 59% to 52%, also the amount of those who want to unite two countries in one state increased from 8% to 11%

 

Graph 2. Which type of relations with Russia is preferred in Ukraine?*



*Line on the graph “Ukraine and Russia should be independent” is a sum of first two columns in table 6, that is, the percentage of those who want independency with borders and customs and those who want independency but without borders and customs (see the tables below).

 

Expert commentary. Oleksii Hrazhdankin, Deputy Head of Levada-Center (Moscow) in response to our question “Why did the attitude of the Russians toward Ukraine get worse comparing to the data of September 2015?”:


“Amongst the events that could have had impact on Ukraine`s image in the eyes of Russian people since September 2015 I can come up only with transport and energy blockade of Crimea and similar actions of “Pravyi sector”. But seems like it`s effect should have exhausted itself by the end of January. May be the return of the indicator of relation to Ukraine to it`s minimum value is connected to the disappointment with the possibility of quick and peaceful solution of Donbas conflict: in Russian mass consciousness Ukraine is responsible for slowing down (failure of Minsk agreements) the conflict resolution”.

Addition 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

What do you want the relations between Ukraine and Russia to be like?  ONE ANSWER

It should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs 1
Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly countries - with no visa, no customs and with open borders 2
Ukraine and Russia should unite in one country 3
Difficult to say/ no answer 9

 

What is your general attitude toward Russia now?

very positive 1  generally negative 3 DIFFICULT TO SAY  9
generally positive 2  very negative 4    

 TABLES

 

Table 1.  What is your general attitude toward Russia/Ukraine now?   

IN UKRAINE TOWARD RUSSIA % IN RUSSIA TOWARD UKRAINE, %
Date very positive/ generally positive generally negative/ very negative DIFFICULT TO SAY TOTAL Date very positive/ generally positive generally negative/ very negative DIFFICULT TO SAY TOTAL
Apr.08 88 7 5 100 Mar.08 55 33 12 100
Sep.08 88 9 3 100 Sep.08 38 53 10 100
Feb.09 91 5 4 100 Jan.09 29 62 10 100
May.09 93 4 3 100 May.09 33 56 11 100
Oct.09 92 6 3 100 Sep.09 46 44 10 100
Mar.10 90 6 4 100 Mar.10 59 29 12 100
Jun.10 92 6 3 100 Jul.10 70 22 9 100
Oct.10 93 4 3 100 Oct.10 67 21 12 100
Nov.11 80 13 7 100 Sep.11 68 23 9 100
Feb.12 85 9 6 100 Jan.12 64 25 12 100
Sep.12 83 11 6 100 Sep.12 74 17 10 100
Feb.13 85 8 7 100 Feb.13 69 21 9 100
May.13 81 10 9 100 May.13 72 18 9 100
Nov.13 82 10 8 100 Sep.13 69 22 8 100
Feb.14 78 13 9 100 Jan.14 66 26 9 100
May.14 52 38 10 100 May.14 35 49 17 100
Sep.14 48 41 11 100 Sep.14 32 55 13 100
Dec.14 37 48 16 100 Jan. 15 24 63 13 100
Feb.15 34 51 15 100 Mar.15 31 56 13 100
May.15 30 56 14 100 May.15 26 59 14 100
Sep.15 34 53 13 100 Sep.15 33 56 11 100
Feb.16 36 47 13 100 Feb.16 27 59 14 100

 

Table 3. What is your general attitude toward Russia now?  Distribution by macro regions of Ukraine

  Western Central South Eastern Ukraine in general
Very positive 2,9 4,1 8,7 24,1 9
Generally positive 18,3 25,0 35,4 31,0 25
Generally negative 34,8 34,4 25,8 14,5 22
Very negative 30,5 20,6 16,4 7,6 31
DIFFICULT TO SAY 13,6 16,0 13,8 22,8 13
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100

 
Table 4. What do you want the relations between Ukraine and Russia to be like? 

  IN UKRAINE
Date It should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly - with no visa, no customs and with open borders Ukraine and Russia should unite in one country Difficult to say Total
Apr.08 10 67 20 3 100
Sep.08 17 66 16 2 100
Feb.09 8 68 23 1 100
May.09 10 65 23 2 100
Oct.09 11 67 19 3 100
Mar.10 11 67 19 3 100
Jun.10 12 70 16 2 100
Oct.10 10 67 20 2 100
Nov.11 13 67 16 1 100
Feb.12 13 69 16 2 100
Sep.12 11 72 14 3 100
Feb.13 13 68 16 3 100
May.13 11 69 14 5 100
Nov.13 12 73 9 6 100
Feb.14 15 68 12 5 100
May.14 32 54 8 5 100
Sep.14 45 44 5 6 100
Dec.14 50 42 3 5 100
Feb.15 48 43 4 6 100
May.15 45 46 2 7 100
Sep.15 46 45 2 7 100
Feb.16 42 43 4 11 100
 
  IN RUSSIA
Date  It should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly - with no visa, no customs and with open borders Ukraine and Russia should unite in one country Difficult to say Total
Mar.08  19  56  19  100
Sep. 08  24  52  13  11  100
Jan. 09  29  51  12  100
Jun. 09  25  55  14  100
Sep. 09  25  55  13  100
Jan. 10  25  55  14  100
May. 10  17  64  13  100
Sep. 10  16  60  18  100
Sep.11 16 63 14 6 100
Jan.12 16 61 16 8 100
Sep.12 14 60 20 6 100
Feb.13 13 64 18 6 100
May.13 19 58 15 8 100
Sep.13 23 55 16 6 100
Jan.14 19 59 16 6 100
May.14 28 54 12 6 100
Sep.14 26 62 7 5 100
Jan. 15 32 53 7 8 100
May.15 30 54 10 6 100
Sep.15 25 59 8 7 100
Feb.16 32 52 11 5 100

 

Regarding the commentary please contact Tetyana Piaskovska: +38(067) 5001523


11.3.2016
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