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Geopolitical orientations of Ukrainian citizens: European Union, Customs Union (May 2016)

By Yulia Sakhno

Between May 19 and May 31, 2016 Kiev international institute of sociology (KIIS) conducted the nation-wide public opinion poll. Totally 2014 respondents from 110 settlements of all regions of Ukraine (with the exception of the Republic of Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions) were interviewed face-to-face according to the four-stage random sample, which is representative for adult population of Ukraine (aged 18 and over).

In Donetsk and Luhansk region the poll was conducted only in territories controlled by Ukraine’s government forces. In the Autonomous Republic of Crimea survey was not conducted.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed 3.3% for indicators close to 50%; 2.8% for indicators close to 25%; 2.0% for indicators close to 10%; 1.4%  for indicators close to 5%, 0.7% for indicators close to 1%.

 

Ukrainian citizens' attitudes towards joining the European Union

Vast majority of Ukrainian citizens[1] support the idea of joining the European Union. According to the public-opinion poll conducted by Kiev International Institute of Sociology, if a referendum on whether Ukraine should join the European Union was held in May 2016, 49% of Ukrainians would vote for accession to the EU, 26% would vote against, and the remaining 24% are undecided or would not vote.

If those who are undecided how to vote, would not have come on a referendum on EU membership, about 76% of all who are eligible to vote and live in the unoccupied territory would participate, and their votes would be distributed as follows (actually, these figures are closest to the possible results of the referendum if it was held in late May, 2016): for the accession to the EU — 65% against — 35%.

 

The data is presented for Ukraine with the exception of the occupied territories (without the Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

 

Despite some fluctuations, readiness of Ukrainian citizens to vote for the accession to the EU since the annexation of the Crimea and beginning of the war in Eastern Ukraine stayed at roughly the same level: in 2015 (according to the aggregated annual data), the percentage of Ukrainian citizens (without occupied territories)who were ready to vote for the accession to the EU was 51.8%, in February this year – 51%, and in May – 49% (the difference is within statistical error).

The data is presented for Ukraine with the exception of the occupied territories (without the Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

Ukrainian citizens' attitudes towards joining the Customs Union

The idea of Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan does not enjoy much support among the population of Ukraine: if a referendum on this issue was held in May 2016, only 16% would vote for the accession to the Customs Union, 57% - against, and the rest 27% are undecided or would not participate in this referendum.

If those who are undecided how to vote, would not have come on a referendum on the Customs Union membership, about 73% of all who are eligible to vote and live in the unoccupied territory would participate, and their votes would be distributed as follows (actually, these figures are closest to the possible results of the referendum if it was held in late May, 2016): for the accession to the Customs Union — 22% against — 78%.

 

The data is presented for Ukraine with the exception of the occupied territories (without the Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

Attitude towards the integration with the Customs Union has not changed during the last one and a half years: in December, 2014 about 17% of Ukraine’s citizens (with the exception of the occupied territories) were ready to vote for joining the Customs Union, and now (May, 2016) -16% (the difference is within statistical error).

 

The data is presented for Ukraine with the exception of the occupied territories (without the Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

APPENDIX. Tables

Table 1. “Please, imagine, that now is a referendum on whether Ukraine should join the European Union. You can vote for, against or abstain from voting. What would you choose?”, %, December 2014-May 2016

  Dec. 2014 Feb. 2015 May. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Feb.2016 May.2016
For accession 54.3 52.4 51.3 48.3 55.1 50.9 49.4
Against 23.5 24.4 26.2 28.4 21.2 25.8 26.2
Would not participate 8.4 10.3 10.2 10.6 10.6 8.9 9.3
Don't know, difficult to say 13.7 12.8 12.3 12.8 13.1 14.4 15.1
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

The data is presented for Ukraine with the exception of the occupied territories (without the Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).


Table 2. “And if now is a referendum on whether Ukraine should join the Customs Union consisting of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, what would you choose - vote for accession, against or abstain - not participate in voting?” %, December 2014-May 2016

  Dec.14 May.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 Feb.16 May.16
For accession 16.8 16.3 15.8 14.2 14.9 16.2
Against 60.0 59.3 60.2 59.6 60.0 57.0
Would not participate 10.6 12.2 11.8 12.1 9.6 9.8
Don't know, difficult to say 12.6 12.2 12.1 14.1 15.5 17.1
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100

The data is presented for Ukraine with the exception of the occupied territories (without the Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

For details or comments please contact Yulia Sakhno:  j.sakhno@kiis.com.ua




[1]Since the poll was not conducted on the occupied territories, here and further under the term “Ukrainian citizens” are meant the residents of Ukraine without temporarily occupied territories  (without the Republic of Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).


16.6.2016
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