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Моніторинг електоральних настроїв українців

The results of the joint survey of KIIS, Razumkov Center and Sociological Group “Rating”,

Sample: 15,000 respondents in all regions of Ukraine (except for the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). The sample is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and above by indicators such as sex, age, type of settlement and region of residence.

Statistical sampling error: no more than 0.8%

Period of data collection: March 5-14, 2019

  • According to the results of a joint sociological survey conducted by three sociological companies (KIIS, Razumkov Center and the Sociological Group “Rating”), 35% believe that the situation in the country will improve as a result of the presidential election, which will take place on March 31, 2019 (the indicator improved from 31% to 35% over the last quarter). At the same time, 32% believe that it will not change, 10% have negative expectations about the elections. The sympathizers of V. Zelenskyi, Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko show a relatively higher level of optimism about the improvement of the situation in the country as a result of the elections. The worst expectations are observed among those who do not intend to vote.
  • 84% of respondents declare their readiness to take part in the elections of the President of Ukraine.
  • V. Zelenskyi is the leader of the presidential rating - 27.7% of those who are determined with their choice and intend to take part in the voting are ready to support him. Y.Tymoshenko is supported by 16.6%, P.Poroshenko – by 16.4%, A.Hrytsenko – by 9.7%, Y.Boiko - 8.4%, O.Liashko – by 5.3%, O.Vilkul – by 4.0%, I.Smeshko – by 3.7%. The rating of other candidates is below 2%.
  • Almost every fourth has not decided on the choice by this time. Most of such people are concentrated in Halychyna region, and also the North, the Center and in the Eastern regions of the country.
  • V. Zelenskyi has the strongest electoral positions in the South and the East, as well as in the Center, in the West, in the North, and in the capital. Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko are the most supported in the Central-Western macro-regions. A.Hrytsenko - in the West and Halychyna, and Y.Boiko and O.Vilkul - in the South, East and Donbas. O. Liashko has relatively higher support in the regions of the West, the Center, and the North.
  • V.Zelenskyi is a leader of support among young and middle-aged people, Y.Tymoshenko is popular among the older voters. While V.Zelenskyi, P.Poroshenko, and A.Hrytsenko are relatively more supported by male voters, then Yulia Tymoshenko has more support from female voters.
  • Anti-rating of candidates is headed by P.Poroshenko. Almost half of the voters would not vote for him under any circumstances. Also, 30% would never vote for Y.Tymoshenko, 20% - for Y.Boiko, 18% - for O.Liashko, 14% - for V. Zelenskyi, 11% - for O. Vilkul.
  • The second round modeling gave the following results: Y.Tymoshenko holds the leadership in a pair with P.Poroshenko (26% vs. 19%). At the same time, V. Zelenskyi wins both in a pair with P.Poroshenko (39% vs. 18%), and with Y.Tymoshenko (34% vs. 21%).
  • Six political forces have chances to enter the parliament. The leader of the rating is the party “Sluha narodu (Servant of the People)” - 24.8% of respondents who have already determined their choice and intend to vote are ready to support it. Support for the party “Batkivshchyna (Motherland)” is 17.6%, for the BPP “Solidarnist (Solidarity)” - 14.7%, for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia (Civic Position)” - 9.3%, for the party “Opozytsiina platforma (Opposition Platform)” - 9.2%, for the Radical Party - 5.3%. The rating of the “Opozytsiynyi block (Opposition block)” is 4.4%, of the AU “Svoboda (Freedom)” - 3.1%, of the party “Samopomich (Self-help)” - 2.5%. The share of those who have not decided on the choice of political force yet is almost 30%.
  • The highest level of support for the party "Sluha narodu (Servant of the People)" is in the South and the East of the country, for the party “Batkivshchyna (Motherland)” - in the Center, for the BPP “Solidarnist (Solidarity)” - in Halychyna, for the party “Opozytsiina platforma (Opposition Platform)” and the “Opozytsiynyi block (Opposition block)” - in the South-Eastern regions and in the Donbas.
  • 65% of respondents indicated that they personally did not face the facts of bribery during this presidential election campaign. On the other hand, 27% said they had this experience: 6% - personally, 21% - heard about it from relatives and acquaintances. The largest number of those who noted the facts of bribery was recorded among the residents of the South, Donbas, the North and in the capital.
  • 42% said they expected significant falsifications in the presidential elections on March 31, 2019. 41% believe that falsifications will be insignificant, and only 6% do not expect any falsification of the elections at all. The greatest number of those who expect significant falsifications are among the residents of the South, among voters O.Vilkul and Y.Boiko, as well as among those who do not participate at all.


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