KYIV
INTERNATIONAL
INSTITUTE of
SOCIOLOGY
sociological and
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office@kiis.com.ua

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16
october
2023
Dynamics of prevalence of narratives of "split" among the population: results of a telephone survey conducted on September 29 - October 9, 2023

From September 29 to October 9, 2023, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus". Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviews(CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 1,010 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine (within the boundaries controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022). The sample did not include residents of territories that were not temporarily controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022 (AR of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 3.4% for indicators close to 50%, 3.0% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. In particular, if in May 2022, among all the respondents we interviewed, 2.5-4% lived in the territories occupied after February 24 (and this corresponded to the percentage of those who live there, because the generation of telephone numbers was random), now due to the occupiers turning off the telephone connection, not a single respondent who currently lives in occupied settlements was included in the sample (along with this, out of a total of 1,010 respondents, 22 respondents lived in a settlement that is currently occupied until February 24, 2022). It is important to note that although the views of the respondents who lived in the occupation were somewhat different, the general trends were quite similar. That is, the impossibility of interviewing such respondents does not significantly affect the quality of the results. There are other factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions, which were cited by KIIS earlier.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public moods of the population.

13
october
2023
Dynamics of readiness for territorial concessions to end the war as soon as possible: results of a telephone survey conducted from September 29 to October 9, 2023

From September 29 to October9 2023, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus". Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviews(CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 1,010 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine (within the boundaries controlled by the Ukrainian authorities until February 24, 2022). The sample did not include residents of territories that were not temporarily controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022 (AR of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, certain dustricts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 3.4% for indicators close to 50%, 3.0% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. In particular, if in May 2022, among all the respondents we interviewed, 2.5-4% lived in the territories occupied after February 24 (and this corresponded to the percentage of those who live there, because the generation of telephone numbers was random), now due to the occupiers turning off the telephone connection, not a single respondent who currently lives in occupied settlements was included in the sample (along with this, out of a total of 1,010 respondents, 22 respondents lived in a settlement that is currently occupied until February 24, 2022). It is important to note that although the views of the respondents who lived in the occupation were somewhat different, the general trends were quite similar. That is, the impossibility of interviewing such respondents does not significantly affect the quality of the results. There are other factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions, which were cited by KIIS earlier.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public moods of the population.

21
september
2023
HOW TO GET LASTING PEACE? UKRAINE AND THE WORLD AFTER THE CEASEFIRE

September 21 - the report of the Thirteenth Sakharov International Conference on the topic "How to achieve lasting peace? Ukraine and the world after the ceasefire", which took place on May 18-19, 2023 in Vilnius, was published. This conference set the task of considering the difficult issues that Ukraine will face after the end of the war. The President of KIIS Volodymyr Paniotto took part in the conference.

In order to prepare for the conference, by order of the Center for Democratic Development named after Andrii Sakharov (Lithuania), the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian sociological survey in February 2023. The results are in the appendix to the Reports.

Report in English at the link.

Report in Ukrainian at the link.

12
september
2023
COMMENT OF KIIS REGARDING THE RESULTS OF THE SURVEY CONDUCTED BY ORDER OF THE "DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES" FOUNDATION

One of the most popular problems faced by sociologists in the modern world is the interpretation of survey results, especially through the prism of loud headlines in the media. The data of the survey published yesterday, which KIIS conducted on behalf of the “Democratic Initiatives” Foundation (which received financial support from the Prague Center of Civil Society), is a vivid example of this. Therefore, we would like to once again provide a more correct sociological interpretation. (We also recommend that you read the post of Tymofii Brik from the Kyiv School of Economics.)

So, first of all, regarding the wording of the question itself. Respondents had to answer the question "Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?", where one of the statements was "The President is directly responsible for corruption in the government, military administrations" (answer options - agree, rather agree, rather disagree, disagree + there was an opportunity to refuse to answer or to say "it's hard to say").

Second, about the "content" behind the question. Many interpreters have equated "responsibility" with "involvement", although this is not the case. There is still a desire among Ukrainians to have a strong leader who is expected to take decisive action. At the same time, there is a tangible demand among the public to fight corruption. In addition, Ukrainians mostly have a poor understanding of public administration and who is responsible for what and where they can exert influence. Therefore, as usual, Ukrainians personalize in the person of the President (especially one who enjoys high support) exactly who, in their opinion, is capable and should bring the necessary changes. That is, now this question reflects the request and call of the public to the President to take decisive actions aimed at fighting corruption.

Thirdly, it is necessary to understand the general political context and political consequences. Currently, V. Zelenskyi maintains a record high level of support (80-85% trust or approval of the activity, depending on the wording of the question). When asked by the population to update the central government, only a quarter would like to change the President after the Victory. That is, now the call to the President to fight corruption does not mean a decrease and a crisis of support (however, of course, in the long term and especially after the Victory and after the change of the agenda, there may be significant changes).

Fourthly, the issue of corruption is complex and it is also important to look at the dynamics of the situation. We recommend that you familiarize yourself with the results of the survey "The state of corruption in Ukraine. Perception, experience, attitude", conducted by the Public Activity Promotion Program "Join!" (within the USAID project). In particular, indeed, for 89% of the population, corruption is now a very or rather a serious problem. At the same time, when asked about responsibility for overcoming corruption, which was in a different format, most respondents also spoke about the President / his Office. Most consider corruption to be widespread in Ukraine, although from 2021 to 2023 the share of those who consider it to be "very widespread" decreased from 63% to 43%. Also, during this period, the share of those who believe that the authorities are rather effective in fighting corruption in Ukraine has increased from 25% to 50%. Therefore, the situation is quite complex and it is worth avoiding noisy simple conclusions.

11
september
2023
Сприйняття загрози корупції громадянами: оцінка влади та вимоги до змін під час війни

У дослідженні представлено результати двох загальнонаціональних опитувань, проведених Фондом «Демократичні ініціативи» ім. Ілька Кучеріва спільно з соціологічною службою Центру Разумкова та Київським міжнародним інститутом соціології у липні та серпні 2023 року. 

 

Детальніше за посиланням.

 

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