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Socio-political situation in Ukraine: March 2015

Main findings:

 

  • In case of elections, tree parliamentary parties (Petro Poroshenko Bloc, Samopomich and Batkivschyna) could get the most increase, while “Narodnyi front” is at the biggest risk of losing support.
  • Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko and Andriy Sadovyi are the leaders of presidential rating.
  • If to compare with the previous parliamentary election, Batkivschyna nearly doubled their support, and Samopomich raised popularity by one third.
  • People in Ukraine generally have negative expectations for the next twelve month, but are cautiously optimistic for a long term period.
  • A relative majority of Ukrainian citizens support European integration course of Ukraine, as well as accession to NATO, but there are significant regional differences in opinions on these issues (especially regarding NATO accession).

Between February 26  and March 11, 2015 Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted the nation-wide public opinion poll on a client’s request. The poll was conducted in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) using a four-stage stratified sampling design with quota selection at the last stage, which is representative for adult population of Ukraine (aged 18 and over). Totally 2040 respondents were interviewed face-to-face during the field stage.

In Donetsk and Luhansk regions the poll was conducted only in territories controlled by Ukraine’s government forces.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed 3.3% for indicators close to 50%; 2.8% for indicators close to 25%; 2.0% for indicators close to 10%; 1.4%  for indicators close to 5%.

Electoral attitudes of Ukrainian people: parliamentary election

If the parliamentary election for the Verkhovna Rada in Ukraine were held in the middle of March 2015, voting-age citizens (18+) were likely to act as follows:

  • 16.1% were going to vote for “Petro Poroshenko Bloc”,
  • 10.3% – for Self-Reliance party (“Samopomich”),
  •  7.0% – for All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (“Batkivshchyna”),
  •  6.2% – for Opposition Bloc,
  •  5.0% – for Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko,
  •  4.0% – for People's Front (“Narodnyi front”),
  •  3.1% – for Right Sector party (“Pravyi sector”),
  •  2.9% – for Civic Position party (“Gromadyanska pozitsiya“),
  •  2.5% – for All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
  •  1.6% – for Communist party of Ukraine,
  •  0.7% – for UDAR,
  •  1.0% expressed a support to other parties,
  •  2.8% were going to cross out all parties / spoil the ballot,
  • 16.0% decided not to participate in voting,
  • 19.7% were unsure or have not decided yet for whom to vote,
  • 1.2% refused to answer the question.

Details.

Presentation you can see here (ukr)


26.3.2015
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