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There are more patients with Covid-19 in Ukraine than according to official statistics! Opinions of the population of Ukraine on the problems of the COVID-19 pandemic: assessment of morbidity, risk of infection and attitudes to vaccination
The press release was prepared by KIIS PR Manager Tetiana Piaskovska
During April 13-15, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) on the basis of a random sample of mobile telephone numbers 2001 respondents were interviewed living in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea). The sample is representative for the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed 2.4% .
To the question "Have you already been sick or are you currently suffering from COVID 19? / Why do you think it's COVID 19 - did the tests or just by the symptoms?", 65% of therespondents answered that they were not sick, 29% - that they were sick. Of those who were sick, 17% did the test, 12% - experienced symptoms.
Comment by KIIS Director General Volodymyr Paniotto
We finished the survey on April 15. On April 16, according to official statistics (I took the data from Johns Hopkins University) became sick with Covid 1974056, i.e. about 2 million people. According to the survey, 29.1% became sick, of which 16.9% determined it by tests, and 12% only by symptoms. If we take into account only those who did the tests, take into account the error and take the lower border (see table below), then among the adult population (18 years and older) became sick 4.4 million people. This means that in Ukraine, patients are at least twice as many as according to official statistics. If to take into account that 2 million of official statistics include people under the age of 18, and that some of those who believe that they had Covid, but did not do the tests, could also be right, then patients we may havethree times more of us than according to official statistics.
What could this be related to? In my opinion, this cannot be due to the insincerity of the respondents, they are not motivated to say that the tests confirmed that they were ill, if it was not so. I do not know the protocols for collecting information about Covid's cases, but perhaps private clinics and commercial testing centers do not always report Covid's cases and this data does not get into the centralized system? Another, perhaps more substantiated hypothesis, expressed by the expert, looking at these data - the Ministry of Health considers the correct diagnosis only by PCR tests, and our respondents understand the tests as any tests (e.g., antibodies and antigen).
Table. Calculation of the possible number of patients with Covid among the population aged 18+.
ANNEX. Distribution of answers by regions and age. Other questions
The incidence rate of COVID 19, by regions:
The incidence rate of COVID 19, by age:
Table 1.Have you already been sick or are you currently suffering from COVID 19? / Why do you think this is COVID 19 - did the tests or only by symptoms?
Level of readiness for vaccination, by regions:
Graph 4. Are you ready to get vaccinated in the next few months? Distribution by regions of Ukraine, %
 West - Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi and Chernivtsi regions,
Center - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv regions and Kyiv city,
South - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Kherson regions,
East - Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.
Level of readiness for vaccination, by age:
Graph 5. Are you ready to get vaccinated in the next few months? Distribution by age, %
Graph 6. According to your estimates,how the incidence of coronavirus in Ukraine has been changing recently?
To the question "How do you assess the risk of COVID 19 infection in your family over the next 6 months?", 37% answered that the risk is low (31% thought so in March), 35% - medium (39% in March), 15% - that the risk is high (it was 16%, the difference is not significant).
Graph 7. How do you assess the risk of COVID 19 infection in your family over the next 6 months?