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Dynamics of the rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and candidates in the elections of the President of Ukraine: the results of a telephone survey conducted on June 1-7, 2021
The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, Deputy Director of KIIS
During June 1-7, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) 2003 respondents were interviewed living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR Crimea). The sample is representative for the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.
Until the registration of parties and candidates, any list of candidates has the right to exist. Meanwhile, the rating of a candidate depends on how many candidates from the same electoral field are on the list - the more of them, the lower the rating of each candidate. The same applies to parties. In addition, a significant role is played by who is considered the party leader. Therefore, now, before the registration of the lists of candidates / parties, all the obtained data on the ratings are conditional and depend on the list offered to the respondents. At the same time, the more different the lists, the less substantiated is the comparison of the results obtained with different lists. In addition, the results of the survey are influenced by a number of factors, such as the survey method (telephone survey or face-to-face survey, and "inside" these methods are also affected by a specific implementation - for example, completely random sampling or quota sampling), the order and context of the questions in the questionnaire (including the influence of which question is asked earlier - about the parliamentary or presidential elections), etc.
As a result, often surveys conducted by different companies, as well as surveys conducted by the same company, cannot be correctly compared with each other due to these factors. That is, such surveys give a reliable overview of the current situation, but more problematic is the analysis of the dynamics.
The purpose of the poll was to find out the dynamics of the rating of parties in the parliamentary elections and candidates in the presidential elections compared to previous polls. To obtain the correct dynamics, the current survey used a similar list of parties as in the surveys conducted in April 2021, February 2021 and December 2020. A similar list of candidates was also used as in the April 2021 poll. Although since December 2020 the political situation in the country is quite dynamic, which, in particular, involves "updating" the lists, but the lists were deliberately left identical for a correct analysis of the dynamics. All polls were conducted in an identical manner and all polls had a similar order of questions (first about the parliamentary elections, then about the presidential elections). Then the ratings of the parties in the parliamentary elections are considered first, then in the presidential elections.
Table 1 shows the rating of the parties if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in early June and these parties participated in them. In addition, a comparison of the rating of parties with the results of previous surveys. Asterisks * and bold are the ratings of June 1-7 and April 16-22, which are statistically significant (i.e. above error) differ. That is, these are cases when the results of the survey on June 1-7 indicate a significant change.
As of June 1-7 the “Sluha Narodu” party has relatively the most support, supported by 14.2% among all respondents and 20.3% among those who are going to vote and decided, as well as “Yevropeiska Solidarnist”, which is supported by 12.9% among all respondents and 18.5% among those who decided. The difference in support for these parties is within the statistical error, i.e. formally, according to the results of the survey, these parties with approximately the same support "share" the first - second place. “Batkivshchyna” (8.4% and 12%) and “OPZZh” (8.3% and 11.9%) share the third and fourth places (the difference in support for these two parties is within the statistical error). The “Syla i Chest” party (5.1% and 7.2%), would also overcome the barrier. Support for other parties is below the barrier, although relatively close to it "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (3% and 4.2%), "Opozytsiinyi Blok" (leaders were noted Ye. Muraiev and V. Novynskyi) (3% and 4, 2%) and the Radical Party (2.9% and 4.2%).
If between April and February there was an increase in support for the party "Sluha Narodu" (to a lesser extent - also "Hromadianska Pozytsiia" and "Natsionalnyi Korpus") and at the same time a decrease - "OPZZh", "Batkivshchyna", "Holos" (for "YeS" were no changes), then now in the case of all parties compared to April changes - within the statistical error, ie formally the current ratings of all political forces do not differ from the ratings as of April.
However, if in April the difference in support for "Sluha Narodu" and "YeS" was more than an error, i.e. "Sluha Narodu" formally really had the most support and was in the first place, now the support of both parties within the statistical error, and therefore both parties "share" leadership with about the same support.
Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Table 2 shows the rating of candidates in the presidential election in the first round, if these candidates participated in the election. A similar list of candidates was used only in the survey in April, so the data are compared only with April.
In the presidential election, if it took place in early June and if these candidates participated in them, V. Zelenskyi would receive the most support - 23% among all respondents and 30.6% among those who are going to vote and decided on the choice. In second place - P. Poroshenko, who would be supported by 13% among all respondents and 17.4% among those who decided. Next are Yu. Tymoshenko (respectively, 9.5% and 12.7%), Yu. Boiko (8% and 10.6%) and I. Smeshko (6.1% and 8.1%). Support for other candidates is lower.
Compared to April, only in the case of I. Smeshko and K. Rudyk there are changes - I. Smeshko's rating decreased from 10.4% among those who decided to 8.1%, and K. Rudyk's rating increased from 0.1%. up to 0.5%. Change in support for other candidates - within the statistical error, ie formally the current ratings do not differ from the ratings as of April 16-22.
Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine
Comment by Anton Hrushetskyi, Deputy Director of KIIS:
The obtained results allow to record trends in public moods, but at the same time do not provide information on the specific reasons for the stabilization / dynamics of ratings, this requires separate research. It can be assumed that the increase in the government's rating between February and April is a consequence of the government's active (at least in the media) activity. At the same time, the fact that there were no changes between April and June may indicate a certain "exhaustion" of the effect of the measures taken by the authorities recently. However, these measures may play a role in stabilizing ratings at a new, higher level reached by April.
As before, it is advisable to pay special attention to the reduction of support for "OPZZh" (and stabilization is now at a lower level than before). The decline may be the result of a ban on the broadcasting of certain TV channels and sanctions against V. Medvedchuk, as well as Russia's escalation of the situation at the borders. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that some "OPZZh" supporters began to "hide" their real views during the polls. For example, in the first round of the 2019 presidential election, exit polls underestimated Yu. Boiko's support, as some of his voters are less likely to participate in polls and respond honestly. A similar trend towards "OPZZh" candidates / the party itself could be observed in the local elections. Therefore, perhaps, even now, given the ban on TV channels and Russia's aggressive actions, some respondents simply do not want / are afraid to name their orientations. In addition, the party's rating may be affected by whether V. Medvedchuk is indicated as the leader of this political force.
Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire
Please imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada are taking place now, in which such parties participate: [READ THE LIST. PARTIES READ BY RANDOM. BE SURE TO READ LEADERS]. Would you take part in the elections or not? IF “YES”: Which party would you vote for? ONE RESPONSE (% among all respondents)
(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)
And now imagine that the presidential elections are also taking place in which are running: [READ CANDIDATES RANDOMLY]. Would you take part in the elections or not? IF “YES”: Which candidate would you vote for? ONE RESPONSE (% among all respondents)
(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)
 In particular, for the reasons considered here, we do not compare the current ratings with the results of a survey conducted on May 27 - June 1 (http://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1044&page=1). In this survey, significantly different lists of parties and candidates, as well as polls differ in the order of questions and methodological features of implementation.