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Socio-political moods of the population of Ukraine: the results of the research conducted on June 22-29, 2021 by the method of personal ("face-to-face") interviews
The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, Deputy Director of KIIS From June 22 to 29, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. Bythemethodofpersonal (“face-to-face”) interviewusing a tablet (CAPI, computer-assisted personal interviews) 2031 respondents living in 107 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) were interviewed by a 3-stage stochastic sample with quota selection at the last stage, which is representative of the population of Ukraine from 18 years. In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities. The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.9% - for indicators close to 25%, 2.2% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%.
Main results of the survey:
Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [1]
Table 1 shows the rating of parties if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place at the end of June and these parties took part in them. If the elections took place in late June, seven political forces would pass to the Verkhovna Rada (would overcome the 5% threshold): "Sluha Narodu", "OPZZh", "YeS", "Batkivshchyna", "Syla i Chest", O. Liashko’sRadical Party, "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy". The party "SluhaNarodu" would receive the greatest support, for which 13.7% among all respondents would vote and 20.6% among those who are going to vote and decided on the choice. By level of support, this political force outperforms other parties over the statistical error, so the "SluhaNarodu" has a "clean" first place. Next, at once three political forces have support that differs within the statistical error, so formally they together "share" the second place: "OPZZh" (11.2% among all respondents and 16.9% among those who decided), "YeS" (respectively, 9.9% and 15%) and "Batkivshchyna" (9.7% and 14.7%). The other three parties, which would also pass to parliament, have lower support (but their support also differs within the statistical error): "Syla i Chest" (4.6% and 7%), O. Liashko’s Radical Party (3.8% and 5.7%) and "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (3.4% and 5.1%). Other parties would not pass to parliament. In particular, 2.5% among all respondents and 3.7% among those who decided vote for the "Sharii’s Party"; for "Svoboda" - 1.5% and 2.2%; for "Holos" – 1.3% and 1.9%. Table 1 Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
The direction of the movement of affairs in Ukraine
The majority of Ukrainians - 64% - believe that things in the country are going in the wrong direction. Optimistically assess the direction of the affairs - 20% (and another 16% could not or refused to answer the question).
[1] Until the parties are registered, any list has a right to exist. Meanwhile, the rating of a party depends on how many parties from the same electoral field are on the list - the more of them, the lower the rating of each party. In addition, who is considered the party leader plays a significant role. Therefore, now, before the registration of party lists, all the received data on ratings are conditional and depend on the list offered to respondents. At the same time, the more different the lists, the less substantiated is the comparison of the results obtained with different lists. In addition, the results of the survey are influenced by a number of factors, such as the survey method (telephone survey or "face-to-face" survey, and "inside" these methods are also influenced by the specific implementation - for example, completely random sampling or quota sampling ), the order and context of the questions in the questionna.
Diagram 1 In your opinion, affairs are going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now? Attitude towards the referendum on the ban on the sale of agricultural land and the sale of land to foreigners
71.7% of Ukrainians support a referendum to ban the sale of agricultural land (do not support - 21%, and another 7.2% were undecided or refused to answer). Herewith, in the case of a referendum on which the question will be asked "Do you support the ban on the sale of agricultural land?" 65.2% of respondents would vote "yes", and 21.8% would vote "no". Another 6.5% would not take part in the vote, and 6.4% did not decide or refused to answer. So, among respondents who would take part in the voting, 74.9% would support the ban.
Along with this, the absolute majority of Ukrainians - 84.1% - do not support the sale of agricultural land to foreigners. Support the sale to foreigners - 12.1% (and another 3.8% could not or refused to answer).
Diagram 4 Do you support or not the sale of agricultural land to foreigners?
Law on Deoligarchization
The majority of Ukrainians - 56.4% - believe that the Law on Deoligarchization is not a threat to oligarchs. Believe that it is a threat - 20.4% of respondents (another 23.2% were undecided or refused to answer questions).
Diagram 5 As you may know, the President submitted the Law on Deoligarchization to the Verkhovna Rada. In your opinion, this law poses or not a threat to the oligarchs?
Approval of the activity of President V. Zelenskyi
Ukrainians rather negatively evaluate the activity of President V. Zelenskyi: 52.7% do not approve of his activity against 34.1% who approve (another 13.2% were undecided or refused to answer questions).
Diagram 6 In general, you approve or disapprove of the activity of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi? Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire Imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are taking place now, and representatives of the election commission came to you with a bulletinfor voting that includes such parties…, Will you vote or not? IF “YES”: And which party would you vote for? (% among all respondents)
(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)
In your opinion, affairs are going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now?
(% among all respondents)
In general, you approve or disapprove of the activity of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi?
(% among all respondents)
As you may know, the President submitted the Law on Deoligarchization to the Verkhovna Rada. In your opinion, this law poses a threat to the oligarchs?
(% among all respondents)
In 2020, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine passed a law according to which the sale of agricultural land is allowed from July 1 this year,
do you support or not a nationwide referendum to ban the sale of agricultural land?
(% among all respondents)
Please imagine that a nationwide referendum is being held now, with the following question: "Do you support the ban on the sale of agricultural land?" You can vote "yes", "no" or abstain - do not take part in the voting. What is your choice?
(% among all respondents)
Do you support or not the sale of agricultural land to foreigners?
(% among all respondents)
[1] Composition of macroregions: Western macroregion - Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions; Central macroregion - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv regions, Kyiv city, Southern macroregion - Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odesa regions, Eastern macroregion - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions, Donbas - Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
5.7.2021
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