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Socio-political moods of the population of Ukraine: the results of the research conducted on June 22-29, 2021 by the method of personal ("face-to-face") interviews

The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, Deputy Director of KIIS

From June 22 to 29, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. Bythemethodofpersonal (“face-to-face”) interviewusing a tablet (CAPI, computer-assisted personal interviews) 2031 respondents living in 107 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) were interviewed by a 3-stage stochastic sample with quota selection at the last stage, which is representative of the population of Ukraine from 18 years.

In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.9% - for indicators close to 25%, 2.2% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%.

           

Main results of the survey:

 

  • If parliamentary elections were held in late June, 7 parties would pass to the parliament. The party "Sluha Narodu" would receive the greatest support (20.6% among those who decided on the choice). The second place with approximately the same support (within the statistical error) is "shared" by "OPZZh" (16.9%), "YeS" (15%) and "Batkivshchyna" (14.7%). Also gaining more than 5% "Syla i Chest" (7%), LRP (5.7%) and "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (5.1%);
  • 64% of Ukrainians believe that affairs in the country are going in the wrong direction (in the right direction – 20%);
  • 71.7% of Ukrainians support holding a referendum to ban the sale of agricultural land. If it is held, 65.2% among all respondents will support the ban (among those who would take part in the voting – 74.9%);
  • 84.1% of Ukrainians do not support the sale of agricultural land to foreigners;
  • 56.4% of Ukrainians believe that the Law on Deoligarchization is not a threat to oligarchs. Believe that it is a threat - 20.4% of respondents;
  • 52.7% do not approve of the activities of President V. Zelenskyi, approve - 34.1%.

 

Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [1]

 

            Table 1 shows the rating of parties if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place at the end of June and these parties took part in them.

            If the elections took place in late June, seven political forces would pass to the Verkhovna Rada (would overcome the 5% threshold): "Sluha Narodu", "OPZZh", "YeS", "Batkivshchyna", "Syla i Chest", O. Liashko’sRadical Party, "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy".

            The party "SluhaNarodu" would receive the greatest support, for which 13.7% among all respondents would vote and 20.6% among those who are going to vote and decided on the choice. By level of support, this political force outperforms other parties over the statistical error, so the "SluhaNarodu" has a "clean" first place.

            Next, at once three political forces have support that differs within the statistical error, so formally they together "share" the second place: "OPZZh" (11.2% among all respondents and 16.9% among those who decided), "YeS" (respectively, 9.9% and 15%) and "Batkivshchyna" (9.7% and 14.7%).

            The other three parties, which would also pass to parliament, have lower support (but their support also differs within the statistical error): "Syla i Chest" (4.6% and 7%), O. Liashko’s Radical Party (3.8% and 5.7%) and "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (3.4% and 5.1%).

            Other parties would not pass to parliament. In particular, 2.5% among all respondents and 3.7% among those who decided vote for the "Sharii’s Party"; for "Svoboda" - 1.5% and 2.2%; for "Holos" – 1.3% and 1.9%.

Table 1

Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

Party / party leader June 22-29
% among all respondents % among those who are going to vote and decided on the choice
"SluhaNarodu" (Oleksandr Korniienko) 13,7 20,6
"Opozytsiinaplatforma– Zazhyttia!" (Yurii Boiko, Viktor Medvedchuk, Vadym Rabinovych) 11,2 16,9
"Yevropeiska Solidarnist" (Petro Poroshenko) 9,9 15,0
"Batkivshchyna" (Yuliia Tymoshenko) 9,7 14,7
"Syla i Chest" (Ihor Smeshko) 4,6 7,0
Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party 3,8 5,7
«Українська стратегія Гройсмана» 3,4 5,1
"Sharii’s Party" 2,5 3,7
"Svoboda" (Oleh Tiahnybok) 1,5 2,2
"Holos" (Kira Rudyk) 1,3 1,9
"Nashi" (Yevhenii Muraiev) 1,1 1,7
"UDAR" (Vitalii Klychko) 1,0 1,6
"Za Maibutnie" (Ihor Palytsia) 1,0 1,5
"ProPozytsiia"  (Borys Filatov) 0,4 0,6
"Ukraine is Our Home"  (Borys Kolesnikov) 0,2 0,4
Another 0,9 1,4
WOULD SPOIL THE BULLETIN 2,1 ---
UNDECIDED 15,9 ---
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 0,7 ---
WOULD NOT TAKE PART IN THE VOTING 14,9 ---

 

The direction of the movement of affairs in Ukraine

 

 

The majority of Ukrainians - 64% - believe that things in the country are going in the wrong direction. Optimistically assess the direction of the affairs - 20% (and another 16% could not or refused to answer the question).

 

 

 



[1] Until the parties are registered, any list has a right to exist. Meanwhile, the rating of a party depends on how many parties from the same electoral field are on the list - the more of them, the lower the rating of each party. In addition, who is considered the party leader plays a significant role. Therefore, now, before the registration of party lists, all the received data on ratings are conditional and depend on the list offered to respondents. At the same time, the more different the lists, the less substantiated is the comparison of the results obtained with different lists. In addition, the results of the survey are influenced by a number of factors, such as the survey method (telephone survey or "face-to-face" survey, and "inside" these methods are also influenced by the specific implementation - for example, completely random sampling or quota sampling ), the order and context of the questions in the questionna.

 

Diagram 1

In your opinion, affairs are going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now?

Attitude towards the referendum on the ban on the sale of agricultural land and the sale of land to foreigners

 

 

71.7% of Ukrainians support a referendum to ban the sale of agricultural land (do not support - 21%, and another 7.2% were undecided or refused to answer).

Herewith, in the case of a referendum on which the question will be asked "Do you support the ban on the sale of agricultural land?" 65.2% of respondents would vote "yes", and 21.8% would vote "no". Another 6.5% would not take part in the vote, and 6.4% did not decide or refused to answer. So, among respondents who would take part in the voting, 74.9% would support the ban.

 

 

Along with this, the absolute majority of Ukrainians - 84.1% - do not support the sale of agricultural land to foreigners. Support the sale to foreigners - 12.1% (and another 3.8% could not or refused to answer).

 

Diagram 4

Do you support or not the sale of agricultural land to foreigners?

 

Law on Deoligarchization 

 

The majority of Ukrainians - 56.4% - believe that the Law on Deoligarchization is not a threat to oligarchs. Believe that it is a threat - 20.4% of respondents (another 23.2% were undecided or refused to answer questions).

 

 

Diagram 5

As you may know, the President submitted the Law on Deoligarchization to the Verkhovna Rada. In your opinion, this law poses or not a threat to the oligarchs?

 

Approval of the activity of President V. Zelenskyi

 

 

Ukrainians rather negatively evaluate the activity of President V. Zelenskyi: 52.7% do not approve of his activity against 34.1% who approve (another 13.2% were undecided or refused to answer questions).

 

 

Diagram 6

In general, you approve or disapprove of the activity of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi?

Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire

Imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are taking place now, and representatives of the election commission came to you with a bulletinfor voting that includes such parties…, Will you vote or not? IF “YES”: And which party would you vote for?

(% among all respondents)

100% in the column The respondent was shown a card with a list of parties Ukraine as a whole West[1] Center South East Donbas
"Batkivshchyna" (Yuliia Tymoshenko) 9,7 10,8 12,3 8,8 6,5 3,5
"Holos" (Kira Rudyk) 1,3 2,8 1,1 0,8 0,3 0,0
"Za Maibutnie" (Ihor Palytsia) 1,0 1,8 0,4 1,3 0,8 0,7
"Yevropeiska Solidarnist" (Petro Poroshenko) 9,9 16,7 9,2 4,2 7,6 4,2
"Nashi" (Yevhenii Muraiev) 1,1 0,2 0,6 2,1 1,8 4,2
"Opozytsiina platforma – Za Zhyttia!" (Yurii Boiko, Viktor Medvedchuk, Vadym Rabinovych) 11,2 3,3 5,2 21,3 19,6 30,6
"Sharii’s Party" 2,5 0,2 1,1 7,9 3,0 6,9
"ProPozytsiia" (Borys Filatov) 0,4 0,0 0,1 0,8 1,0 0,7
Oleh Liashko's Radical Party 3,8 3,3 5,1 4,6 2,0 2,8
"Svoboda" (Oleh Tiahnybok) 1,5 4,4 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,7
"Syla i Chest" (Ihor Smeshko) 4,6 3,9 6,5 2,1 4,0 4,2
"Sluha Narodu" (Oleksandr Korniienko) 13,7 13,6 14,0 17,9 13,6 5,6
"Ukraine is our home" (Borys Kolesnikov) 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,3 2,1
"UDAR" (Vitalii Klychko) 1,0 1,1 1,6 0,4 0,5 0,7
"Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" 3,4 2,9 6,2 0,8 1,3 1,4
Another 0,9 1,7 0,8 0,4 0,8 0,0
WOULD SPOIL THE BULLETIN (DO NOT READ) 2,1 2,9 2,0 1,7 2,3 0,0
UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ) 15,9 18,0 16,3 14,2 13,9 14,6
REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ) 0,7 0,6 1,1 0,0 0,8 0,7
WOULD NOT TAKE PART IN THE VOTING (DO NOT READ) 14,9 11,6 15,9 10,4 19,6 16,7

 

 

(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)

100% in the column The respondent was shown a card with a list of parties Ukraine as a whole West Center South East Donbas
"Batkivshchyna" (Yuliia Tymoshenko) 14,7 16,2 19,0 11,9 10,3 5,1
"Holos" (Kira Rudyk) 1,9 4,1 1,8 1,1 0,4 0,0
"Za Maibutnie" (Ihor Palytsia) 1,5 2,7 0,7 1,7 1,2 1,0
"Yevropeiska Solidarnist" (Petro Poroshenko) 15,0 25,0 14,2 5,6 11,9 6,1
"Nashi" (Yevhenii Muraiev) 1,7 0,3 0,9 2,8 2,8 6,1
"Opozytsiina platforma – Za Zhyttia!" (Yurii Boiko, Viktor Medvedchuk, Vadym Rabinovych) 16,9 4,9 8,1 28,8 31,0 44,9
"Sharii’s Party" 3,7 0,3 1,8 10,7 4,8 10,2
"ProPozytsiia" (Borys Filatov) 0,6 0,0 0,2 1,1 1,6 1,0
Oleh Liashko's Radical Party 5,7 4,9 7,9 6,2 3,2 4,1
"Svoboda" (Oleh Tiahnybok) 2,2 6,6 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0
"Syla i Chest" (Ihor Smeshko) 7,0 5,8 10,1 2,8 6,3 6,1
"Sluha Narodu" (Oleksandr Korniienko) 20,6 20,3 21,7 24,3 21,4 8,2
"Ukraine is our home" (Borys Kolesnikov) 0,4 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,4 3,1
"UDAR" (Vitalii Klychko) 1,6 1,6 2,4 0,6 0,8 1,0
"Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" 5,1 4,4 9,6 1,1 2,0 2,0
Another 1,4 2,5 1,3 0,6 1,2 0,0

 

In your opinion, affairs are going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now?
(% among all respondents)
 
100% in the column  Ukraine as a whole West Center South East Donbas
In the right direction 20,0 23,5 21,5 19,2 16,1 11,1
In the wrong direction 64,0 60,7 59,9 67,5 69,0 76,4
DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ) 16,0 15,8 18,4 13,3 14,9 12,5
REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ) 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0

 

In general, you approve or disapprove of the activity of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi?
(% among all respondents)
 
100% in the column  Ukraine as a whole West Center South East Donbas
Approve 34,1 37,7 35,0 35,4 30,7 22,9
Disapprove 52,7 51,1 51,0 49,2 54,9 67,4
DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ) 13,0 11,0 14,0 15,4 14,4 7,6
REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ) 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,1

 

 

As you may know, the President submitted the Law on Deoligarchization to the Verkhovna Rada. In your opinion, this law poses a threat to the oligarchs?
(% among all respondents)
 
100% in the column  Ukraine as a whole West Center South East Donbas
Yes, it poses a threat to the oligarchs 20,4 21,3 20,5 21,3 19,1 18,1
No, it is not a threat to the oligarchs 56,4 55,7 57,6 57,1 52,9 61,8
DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ) 22,9 23,0 21,7 20,8 27,7 18,8
REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ) 0,3 0,0 0,1 0,8 0,3 1,4

 

In 2020, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine passed a law according to which the sale of agricultural land is allowed from July 1 this year,
do you support or not a nationwide referendum to ban the sale of agricultural land?
(% among all respondents)
 
100% in the column  Ukraine as a whole West Center South East Donbas
Yes, I support 71,7 68,6 69,3 80,4 74,3 73,6
No, I do not support 21,0 23,9 22,8 15,8 18,1 18,1
DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ) 7,1 7,4 7,8 3,8 7,6 7,6
REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ) 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,7

 

Please imagine that a nationwide referendum is being held now, with the following question: "Do you support the ban on the sale of agricultural land?" You can vote "yes", "no" or abstain - do not take part in the voting. What is your choice?
(% among all respondents)
 
100% in the column  Ukraine as a whole West Center South East Donbas
Yes 65,2 66,2 59,9 74,2 66,5 68,8
No 21,8 20,4 25,2 20,0 20,9 16,0
Would not vote 6,5 7,2 7,2 1,7 6,5 9,0
DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ) 6,4 6,3 7,6 4,2 6,0 5,6
REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,7

 

Do you support or not the sale of agricultural land to foreigners?
(% among all respondents)
 
100% in the column  Ukraine as a whole West Center South East Donbas
Yes, I support 12,1 15,4 8,5 9,2 14,6 14,6
No, I do not support 84,1 81,4 87,0 87,5 81,1 82,6
DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ) 3,7 2,9 4,5 3,3 4,3 2,1
REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ) 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,7


[1] Composition of macroregions: Western macroregion - Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions; Central macroregion - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv regions, Kyiv city, Southern macroregion - Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odesa regions, Eastern macroregion - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions, Donbas - Donetsk and Luhansk regions.


5.7.2021
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