The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During October 12-16, 2023, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a public opinion survey of Kyiv residents. Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviews(CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with further statistical weighting), 805 respondents living in all districts of Kyiv were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) residents of the capital, who at the time of the survey lived and were registered in the city of Kyiv.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and without taking into account the design effect) did not exceed 3.5% for indicators close to 50%, 3.1% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1 % - for indicators close to 10%, 1.6% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. There are various factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions, which were cited by KIIS earlier. In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public mood of the capital's population.

To the question of who will win the war, 91% of respondents from Kyiv answer that Ukraine will win, in particular, 74% are definitely convinced of this. Only 1% of respondents believe that Russia will win.

Graph 1. How do you feel, in the end of the war, Ukraine or Russia will win?

The majority of respondents - 55% - believe that the war will continue for more than a year. Another 25% believe that the war will last from half a year to a year, and only 4% expect the war to end in the coming months.

Graph2. And how much time, in your opinion, will pass until the end of the war?

The majority of respondents believe that in the next 12 months the situation will improve both in Ukraine (58% expect changes for the better) and in Kyiv (60%). At the same time, 21% expect the situation to worsen in Ukraine, 15% – in Kyiv. The rest of the respondents either believe that there will be no changes or could not answer the question.

Graph3. What changes in general do you expect during the next 12 months …?

Currently, elections in the city of Kyiv are not planned, and it is not known who could potentially compete for the post of mayor of the capital. Respondents were offered a list of 9 people who could be participants in local races (and the respondent could also name his option). As can be seen, V. Klychko has the most support, for whom 29% of all respondents and 53% of those who have decided on their choice would vote. A. Illienko, I. Vereshchuk, M. Tomenko, and M. Poroshenko follow with a considerable gap and approximately equal support (the difference is within the margin of error). Other candidates have lower support.

At the same time, it is important to note that 29% of all respondents did not object to voting, but did not decide who they would vote for.

Table 1. Imagine, please, that the war has ended and the elections for the mayor of Kyiv are taking place, in which the following candidates are participating: ... . You would participate in the elections or not? IF "YES": Which candidate would you vote for?

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

The residents of Kyiv, as well as the general population of Ukraine, despite the prolonged hostilities, maintain high optimism - they believe in Ukraine's victory and in changes for the better in the coming year. At the same time, the majority are determined for a long military campaign. Such an awareness that hostilities can continue for a long time (and, accordingly, one's own preparation for this) is an important element of maintaining and preserving optimism for the future.

Our recent sociological polls and polls of our colleagues show that, in the opinion of Ukrainians, elections during the war are not timely. The priority is to win the war. However, in the context of high-profile cases about the possible inefficient use of local budgets, the level of support for mayors is a notable indicator of public moods. We see that V. Klychko maintains a high level of support in the city of Kyiv, although at the same time there is a high proportion of those who have undefined views in the city. In addition, as in previous years, it is an open question who will try to compete with V. Klychko.    

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

How do you feel, in the end of the war, Ukraine or Russia will win?

And how much time, in your opinion, will pass until the end of the war?

What changes in general do you expect during the next 12 months …?

• In Ukraine
• In Kyiv

Although it is too early to talk about it now, we would like to know about the current sympathies of the people of Kyiv.

В1. Imagine, please, that the war has ended and the mayoral elections of Kyiv are taking place, in which such candidates are participating: [READ IN DIFFERENT ORDER]. You would participate in the elections or not? IF "YES": Which candidate would you vote for? ONE ANSWER