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Ukrainians' perception of Russia's purpose in the war against Ukraine
The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS
From May 16 to 22, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, on its own initiative, added a question about what, in the opinion of Ukrainians, Russia's purpose in the war against Ukraine is. By the method of computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews(CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 1,067 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (territory under the control of the Government of Ukraine) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine (at the same time, out of 1,067 respondents 22 before February 24, 2022, lived in the territory that is currently occupied), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who went abroad after February 24, 2022. Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 3.4% for indicators close to 50%, 3.0% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%. Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS. In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.
What is Russia's purpose in the war against Ukraine
A full-scale invasion of Russia is accompanied by vague and often contradictory "explanations" of what purpose the aggressor wants to achieve. In addition to the statements of Russian officials, Ukrainians see and feel the horrors of the Russian invasion from their own experience. We asked the Ukrainians what, according to their feelings, Russia's ultimate purpose is in relation to Ukraine. Respondents were offered six options (from a conditionally pro-Russian interpretation of the invasion with a subsequent increase in the degree of threat to Ukraine and Ukrainians). As can be seen in graph 1 below, the majority of Ukrainians - 60% - believe that Russia seeks to destroy the Ukrainian nation (26%) or even carry out physical genocide of the majority of the population (34%). Another 6% of Ukrainians believe that Russia wants to subjugate all territories, although leaving them a certain cultural autonomy within Russia. According to 12% of Ukrainians, Russia seeks to change the government and create a puppet state that will be obeyed throughout Russia. Only 7% of Ukrainians believe that the aggressor seeks to keep the already occupied territories and does not actually claim all or most of the territories of Ukraine. In addition, one of the answer options was formulated in such a way as to be close to Russian propaganda, namely, the "denazification" and demilitarization of Ukraine without encroaching on Ukraine's independence. Only 5% of respondents chose this option.
Graph1. According to your feelings, what is the ultimate purpose of Russia regarding Ukraine? Choose one answer that best fits.
Below in the table, the data are given in the regional dimension. In all regions, most respondents (62% in the West and Center, 56% in the South and 49% in the East) believe that Russia seeks to destroy the Ukrainian nation or even commit physical genocide. Moreover, a third of the population in all regions feels that Russia wants to physically destroy the majority of the population. Answers ranging from genocide to the creation of an obedient puppet state actually mean that, according to the respondents, Russia has not achieved its purpose, that is, it will continue its aggressive actions. Depending on the region, the share of respondents who think so varies from 85% in the West to 61% in the East. That is, the majority of the population in all regions understand that Russia does not seek to stop its actions. At the same time, from West to East, the share of those who believe that Russia no longer claims most of the territories of Ukraine and seeks only to keep the already occupied territories is increasing from 3% to 13%. It is important to note that in the East there is a relatively large number of those who believe that Russia wants to "denazify" and demilitarize Ukraine without encroachment on independence - 11% versus 3-6% in other regions. At the same time, in the South and East, respectively, 16% and 15% of the respondents could not answer the question, and perhaps some of them evaded the answer on purpose in order not to express their pro-Russian position. However, even if a certain part of them really takes a pro-Russian position, it still means that such residents are an absolute minority in the region. That is, in any case, the majority of residents of the South and East have completely pro-Ukrainian views.
Table 1. Perception of Russia's purpose in the war against Ukraine in a regional breakdown
In the table below, the data are presented in terms of which language the respondents mostly speak at home. Although Russian-speaking Ukrainians were somewhat less likely to talk about Russia's intentions to destroy the Ukrainian nation, 62% of them believe that Russia has unrealized hostile intentions that will continue (in particular, 37% believe that Russia seeks to destroy the Ukrainian nation or kill the majority of Ukrainians). In addition, only 7% of Russian-speaking Ukrainians share the Russian narrative that Russia "simply" wants to "denazify" and demilitarize Ukraine without encroaching on its independence.
Table 2. Perception of Russia's purpose in the war against Ukraine in terms of the language of communication at home
A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:
From West to East, Ukrainians understand the existential nature of Russia's war against Ukraine. In May 2023, 78% of Ukrainians had relatives or acquaintances who died or were injured as a result of the invasion. Most have someone currently serving in the Defense Forces. Millions of Ukrainians were forced to leave Ukraine and millions became forcibly displaced persons within Ukraine. Pain and tears are daily realities of Ukrainians in all regions. Ukrainians' awareness of the destructive and murderous aspirations of Russia and Russians is a powerful factor that maintains the stability of the understanding that the struggle must continue. It is possible to have different strategic and tactical views on the conduct of the struggle (for example, whether it is worth going to negotiations, which compromises are more or less acceptable, etc.), but Ukrainians remain united on the issue that we must continue to fight back against the brutal enemy. In addition, such results should provide another unambiguous explanation to our Western friends, why Ukrainians do not want "any" peace with Russia. Ukrainians do not need "any" peace - Ukrainians just want to survive. Therefore, we need a peace that would give guarantees that the war will not be repeated again and again with the capture of new territories until there is nothing left of Ukraine.
Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire
According to your feelings, what is Russia's ultimate purpose regarding Ukraine? Choose one answer that best fits.
13.6.2024
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