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Attitude of Ukrainians to the creation of a Government of National Unity

The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

 

From December 1 to 9, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, at the request of the public organization Center for Strategic Communications "Forum", questions were added regarding the attitude of Ukrainians to the creation of the Government of National Unity. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 1,000 respondents were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

 


 

Attitude towards the creation of a Government of National Unity

 

In Ukraine, from time to time (especially against the background of growing criticism of the parliament / government), the creation of a government of national unity is discussed. In September 2024, KIIS asked Ukrainians whether they support a broad coalition of parliamentary and extra-parliamentary patriotic forces. In December 2024, we asked this question again.

As can be seen in the graph below, 47% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude towards the initiative to create a Government of National Unity as a broad association of all patriotic forces in and outside parliament. Only 10% have a negative attitude, and 37% have a neutral attitude. Compared to September 2024, there have been practically no changes and interest in such an initiative remains at the same fairly high level.

 

Graph1. How do you feel about creating a Government of National Unity in Ukraine, which will represent a broad unification of all patriotic forces in the parliament and outside it (political parties, public organizations and movements, etc.)?

 

 


In all regions of Ukraine[1] the situation is quite similar and about half of the population (43-51% depending on the region) have a favorable attitude towards this initiative (and no more than 8-12% have a negative attitude).  

 

Graph2. Attitude towards the creation of a Government of National Unity in the regional dimension

 

 


Both among those who trust V. Zelenskyi and among those who do not trust him, a fairly significant proportion favor the idea of a Government of National Unity (although those who do not trust the President are still more favorable to the idea).

 

Graph3. Attitude towards the creation of the Government of National Unity depending on trust in V. Zelenskyi

 

 


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Perhaps the biggest problem in creating a Government of National Unity is the question of who could lead it. In particular, the question of what list we can offer Ukrainians to choose a priority head of the Government of National Unity is an open one. For example, at the end of 2023 we asked questions in an open format (i.e. we did not offer any answers, but from the words of the respondents we recorded what they proposed). However, as it turned out, in this case 76% of Ukrainians cannot offer their vision[2]. Among those who were able to name someone, the most frequently mentioned were P. Poroshenko (6%), V. Zaluzhnyi (3%), Yu. Tymoshenko (2%), D. Shmyhal (1%), D. Razumkov (1%), O. Honcharenko (1%), M. Podoliak (1%).

In the current survey, we used a more formal option. Currently, there are four factions and four deputy groups in the Verkhovna Rada. Therefore, we asked which of the faction/group leaders is most suitable to become the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity (for the “Sluha Narodu”, we asked about the current Prime Minister). As can be seen in the graph below, in this case, the “certainty” with the candidate for the position of Prime Minister is higher, but at the same time, 34% answer that none of them is suitable for the position of Prime Minister, and 16% could not answer the question.

Relatively the largest number of respondents – 20% – believe that P. Poroshenko is the most suitable person from this list for the position of Prime Minister. In conditional second place is D. Shmyhal, who was chosen by 13%. Next are Yu. Tymoshenko (7%), Yu. Boiko (5%) and O. Ustinova (4%).

 

 

 


Graph 4. Imagine that a Government of National Unity is created and its head should be either one of the leaders of the parliamentary factions or deputy groups, or the current Prime Minister. Who of these people, in your opinion, is most suitable to become the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity?

 

 

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

 

In Ukraine, there remains a strong demand for unity in society, particularly among politicians regardless of their “camp.” Ukrainians, for example, on the one hand, are receptive to criticism of possible wrong steps by the government, but on the other hand, they believe that it should remain within a constructive framework[3].

At the same time, the situation with the Government of National Unity demonstrates significant dependence on the wording of the question and the possible configuration of such a Government. At the end of 2023, we asked about the attitude towards such a Government, but specified that it would include a coalition of "Sluha Narodu", "YeS", "Batkivshchyna" and "Holos". In this construction, 37% had a positive attitude and 19% had a negative one[4]. This is apparently due to the critical perception of these political forces. Thus, in a May 2024 survey for NDI, 13% had a positive attitude towards "Sluha Narodu" (48% negative), 23% had a positive attitude towards "YeS" (47% negative), 9% had a negative attitude towards "Batkivshchyna" (57% negative), and 13% had a negative attitude towards "Holos" (29% negative).

According to the results of the current survey, we see that when we are not talking about individual political forces, but about the broad association of various patriotic forces (in particular, outside of parliament), then support is much higher.

           

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

 

How do you feel about creating a Government of National Unity in Ukraine, which will represent a broad unification of all patriotic forces in the parliament and outside it (political parties, public organizations and movements, etc.)?

1 Positively
2 Neither positively, nor negatively / neutrally
3 Negatively
4 DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ)
5 REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ)

 

Imagine that a Government of National Unity is formed and its head is to be either one of the leaders of the parliamentary factions or deputy groups, or the current Prime Minister. Who of these people, in your opinion, is most suitable to become the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity? DIFFERENT READING ORDER

1 Batenko Taras (Za Maibutnie)
2 Boiko Yurii (PlatformaZa Zhyttia i Myr)
3 Kulinich Oleh (Dovira)
4 Poroshenko Petro (YeS)
5 Slavytska Antonina (Vidnovlennia Ukrainy)
6 Tymoshenko Yuliia (Batkivshchyna)
7 Shmyhal Denys (current Prime Minister)
8 Ustinova Oleksandra (Holos)
9 NONE OF THEM ARE SUITABLE (DO NOT READ)
10 DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ)
11 REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ)


[1] The composition of the macroregions is as follows: Western macroregion - Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi oblasts; Central macroregion - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv oblasts, Kyiv city, Southern macroregion - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odesa oblasts, Eastern macroregion - Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts.


20.12.2024
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