The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

From December 2 to 17, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, on its own initiative, added a question about how much longer Ukrainians are ready to bear the burden of war. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 985 respondents were surveyed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

In wartime, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the results obtained still retain a high level of representativeness and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public moods of the population.

A little earlier, KIIS published data on the level of optimism of Ukrainians[1]. However, in addition to optimism (or pessimism) about the future of the country and the perception of unity in society, in the context of the Russian invasion, it is also important to assess how much Ukrainians subjectively feel the opportunity to continue the resistance. KIIS regularly asks the question “How much longer are you ready to endure the war?”, and we can assess the dynamics of public moods, in particular, during the difficult year of 2024.

From the beginning of the invasion until February 2024, the situation remained practically unchanged: around 71-73% consistently answered that they were ready to endure the war as long as necessary (and another 2-3% said about 1 year). During the same period, 18-21% said that they had a shorter margin of safety (several months to half a year). At the same time, between February and October 2024, we recorded for the first time a decrease in the share of those who are ready to endure as long as necessary - to 63%.

Between the beginning of October and December 2024, we also see a slight but significant decrease in the share of those who are ready to endure as much as necessary, down to 57%. It is worth noting that the share of those who talk about a shorter period of several months to six months has changed insignificantly – 21% in December versus 18% in early October, i.e. the current indicator remains approximately within the same range of 18-21% that we have been recording since the beginning of the invasion. On the other hand, the number of those for whom it is “hard to say” how much longer they are ready to endure has increased from 12% to 18%.

Thus, between October and December, there was not a decrease, in fact, in the margin of safety of Ukrainians, but rather an increase in uncertainty. (which reflects the high uncertainty of a combination of external factors, such as the USA election, and internal circumstances).  

Graph 1. How much longer are you ready to endure the war?

The graph below shows the situation by region[2] and changes during this year (it should be taken into account that there are not very many respondents in each region, so the dynamics may partly be due to a higher margin of error). If between February and the beginning of October the decline in the margin of safety was observed primarily in the South and (especially) the East, then by December there was an "equalization" between the regions. Thus, in the West from 71% to 57% and in the Center from 70% to 59%, there were fewer people who are ready to endure as much as necessary.

At the same time, the situation in the South and East has even improved somewhat, and currently 57% in the South and 51% in the East said they are ready to endure as much as necessary (in early October, it was 50% and 38%, respectively).

As a result, now (in December 2024) the difference between the regions has become much less noticeable (although in the East there are slightly fewer people who are ready to endure as much as necessary, as well as higher uncertainty).

Graph 2. How long are ready to endure war in the regional dimension

The graph below shows the respondents' answers in terms of their family's wealth. On the one hand, there is a tendency that the wealthier the respondent's family, the higher the margin of safety.

On the other hand, it is worth emphasizing that even among respondents with low wealth (who are, accordingly, quite vulnerable) 51% answered that they are ready to endure as long as necessary. Among respondents with average wealth, this is 58%, among respondents with high wealth - 70%. Regardless of the family's wealth, no more than a quarter speak of shorter terms, such as a few months or half a year.

It is also important to note that these data show that the readiness to endure war is only partially related to material living conditions and that in reality other factors have a greater influence on the margin of safety.

Graph 3. How long are ready to endure the war in terms of the prosperity of the family

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

The decrease in the share of those who are ready to endure military difficulties as long as necessary is certainly an alarming trend that requires the attention of the authorities and society. Moreover, we see that the readiness to endure is not reduced to socio-economic conditions, but in fact other factors are more significant and determine the population's margin of safety.

At the same time, taking into account the negative (and sometimes almost apocalyptic) "forecasts" that were predicted for Ukraine and Ukrainians during 2024, as of December 2024, Ukrainians demonstrate high resilience and a fairly strong will to fight on.

2025 has already come and there is no doubt that Ukrainians will continue to steadfastly resist the enemy. In 2022, we often heard "Be Brave Like Ukraine". Almost three years have already passed since the full-scale invasion, and Ukrainians are further confirming their courage.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from questionnaire

How much longer are you ready to endure the war?