CITE REPORT AS

Onuch O., Kulyk V., Hale H., Sasse G. (2025). IBIF PROJECT SURVEY REPORT: 23 January 2025. Identity and Borders in Flux (IBIF): The Case of Ukraine. See: www.ibifukraine.com

 

CITE DATA AS

Onuch O., Kulyk V., Hale H., Sasse G. (2024). “IBIF Project: Wave Two National Representative Panel Survey of the Ukrainian Population (November 2024-January 2025).” Identity and Borders in Flux (IBIF): The Case of Ukraine. See: www.ibifukraine.com

 

For short citation/ internal citation please use as depending on citation practice and type of

reference: Onuch, Kulyk, Hale, Sasse (2025) or IBIF Survey Wave Two (2024)

 

REPORT:

IBIF PROJECT SURVEY REPORT January 23, 2025

 

Headlines

Fresh data - Majority of Ukrainians view Trump’s presidency as generally good for Ukraine

New Data - Majority of Ukrainians agree that any peace deal that compromises Ukraine’s territorial integrity is doomed.

 

 

Ukrainians are hopeful that a Second Trump Presidency will be good for Ukraine. New research finds that a majority of Ukrainians (54%) are generally more positive than negative about Donald Trump’s Presidency.When asked: “The people of the United States recently voted for Donald Trump to return to the U.S. presidency. How good or bad is this for Ukraine?” 5.5% of Ukrainians saw this as extremely good, 11.3% saw it as good, 37.3% saw it as more good than bad, and 14.7% More bad than good. On the other hand, 3.2% saw the election of Trump as bad, 2.9% saw it as extremely bad. But much like many international observers there is still some level of uncertainty about what a second Trump Presidency might mean for Ukraine and for the war with 23.2% saying it is hard to say and 2% refusing to answer the question.

The people of the United States recently voted for Donald Trump to return to the U.S. presidency. How good or bad is this for Ukraine?

(% of the population)

 

 

 

MAJORITY OF UKRAINIANS GENERALLY MORE POSITIVE ABOUT TRUMP

 

When asked: The people of the United States recently voted for Donald Trump to return to the U.S. presidency. How good or bad is this for Ukraine?

 

% of population

 

 

IBIF PROJECT

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY NOV/DEC 2024, 18+ POPULATION, COLLECTED BY KIIS,

CATI, N= 1,600, PERCENT OF POPULATION SHOWN, MARGIN OF ERROR NO GREATER THAN 3.3%

 

 

 

Ukrainians views on Trump’s Presidency by Different Groups

When we look at how this positivity is distributed among different groups in Ukrainian society, we see that younger Ukrainians between 18-29 are more confident about what a Trump Presidency will mean for Ukraine with 64% seeing the election of Donald Trump as more good, good, or extremely good for Ukraine, and older Ukrainians are more uncertain, with on average 28% of those over 40 years old finding it hard to say what Trump’s presidency will mean.

Ukrainians views on Trump’s Presidency by Age Group

 

 

 

UKRAINIANS VIEWS ON TRUMP BY AGE GROUP

 

When asked: The people of the United States recently voted for Donald Trump to return to the U.S. presidency. How good or bad is this for Ukraine?

 

% of population by age group

 

 

 

 

IBIF PROJECT

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY NOV/DEC 2024, 18+ POPULATION, COLLECTED BY KIIS,

CATI, N= 1,600, PERCENT OF POPULATION SHOWN, MARGIN OF ERROR NO GREATER THAN 3.3%

 

 

When we look at how views towards Trump’s presidency are distributed between those residing in different macro regions of Ukraine, we see that western Ukrainians are most positive generally speaking about what a Trump Presidency will mean for Ukraine with 54.6% seeing the election of Donald Trump as more good, good, or extremely good for Ukraine, and Eastern Ukrainians are least positive and most uncertain, with only 35.6% seeing the election of Trump as positive for Ukraine and 42.8% of those residing in the region finding it hard to say what Trump’s presidency will mean.

Ukrainians views on Trump’s Presidency by Macro Region of Residence

	West	Centre	South	East
Extremely good	8%	4%	5%	6%
Good	11%	9%	13%	17%
More good than bad	41%	35%	39%	32%
More bad than good	14%	17%	14%	9%
Bad	3%	4%	1%	6%
Extremely bad	2%	3%	4%	3%
Hard to say	21%	25%	24%	24%
Refuse to answer	1%	2%	1%	4%

 

 

 

UKRAINIANS VIEWS ON TRUMP BY REGION

 

When asked: The people of the United States recently voted for Donald Trump to return to the U.S. presidency. How good or bad is this for Ukraine?

 

% of population by region

 

 

 

 

IBIF PROJECT

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY NOV/DEC 2024, 18+ POPULATION, COLLECTED BY KIIS,

CATI, N= 1,600, PERCENT OF POPULATION SHOWN, MARGIN OF ERROR NO GREATER THAN 3.3%

 

 

Which language do you typically speak in your private life? If you speak several languages in your private life, please, tell me, which one you consider the main one. (% of the population)

                                                                            

When we distinguish between those Ukrainians who speak Ukrainian in their private lives and those who speak Russian in their private lives, we see little difference and generally views on trump are not distinguished by language spoke. This is significant as what divides Ukrainians views on Trump is not based in ethno-linguistic practice or identity. And regional differences are likely more about different experiences of war of those residing in different regions further (western Ukraine) and closer (easter Ukraine) to the front lines of the battlefield.

Ukrainians views on Trump’s Presidency by Language Spoken in Private Life

 

 

UKRAINIANS VIEWS ON TRUMP BY LANGUAGE SPOKEN IN PRIVATE LIFE

 

When asked: The people of the United States recently voted for Donald Trump to return to the U.S. presidency. How good or bad is this for Ukraine?

 

% ofpopulationby language spoken in private life

 

 

 

 

IBIF PROJECT

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY NOV/DEC 2024, 18+ POPULATION, COLLECTED BY KIIS,

CATI, N= 1,600, PERCENT OF POPULATION SHOWN, MARGIN OF ERROR NO GREATER THAN 3.3%

 

 

A MAJORITY OF UKRAINIANS (57%)AGREE THAT ANY PEACE AGREEMENT THAT DOES NOT RESTORE THE FULL TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF UKRAINE IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

 

% of population

 

 

IBIF PROJECT

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY NOV/DEC 2024, 18+ POPULATION, COLLECTED BY KIIS,

CATI, N= 1,600, PERCENT OF POPULATION SHOWN, MARGIN OF ERROR NO GREATER THAN 3.3%

 

 

 

 

Territorial commitment remains strong in Ukraine

57% of all Ukrainians agree that “any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure”. And once again this majority holds across different age groups, regions of residence, and language practice in private life. Simply put a peace deal that compromises Ukrainian territorial integrity is not one that a majority of Ukrainians support or confidence. It is seen as an approach that will not bring about a lasting and sustainable peace.

 

Any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure

 

 

 

MAJORITY OF UKRAINIANS OF ALL AGES AGREETHAT ANY PEACE AGREEMENT THAT DOES NOT RESTORE THE FULL TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF UKRAINE IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

 

% of population by age group

 

 

 

 

IBIF PROJECT

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY NOV/DEC 2024, 18+ POPULATION, COLLECTED BY KIIS,

CATI, N= 1,600, PERCENT OF POPULATION SHOWN, MARGIN OF ERROR NO GREATER THAN 3.3%

 

 

 

Any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure by Age Group

	18-29	30-39	40-49	50-59	60-69	70+
Completely Agree	34.1%	34.5%	28.3%	36.9%	45.0%	42.0%
Somewhat Agree	24.6%	23.7%	20.6%	20.6%	17.5%	13.5%
Somewhat Disagree	31.6%	22.7%	30.1%	16.1%	13.1%	10.2%
Completely Disagree	6.7%	13.4%	10.0%	13.4%	9.1%	15.8%
Hard to Say	2.7%	3.8%	9.6%	11.9%	14.0%	17.5%
Refuse to Answer	0.3%	2.0%	1.4%	1.3%	1.3%	1.0%

 

 

MAJORITY OF UKRAINIANS IN ALL REGIONS AGREE THAT ANY PEACE AGREEMENT THAT DOES NOT RESTORE THE FULL TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF UKRAINE IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

 

% of population by region

 

 

 

75% of Ukrainians residing in west, 61% of Ukrainians residing in centre, 61% of Ukrainians residing in south, 58% of Ukrainians residing in east agree or somewhat agree

 

IBIF PROJECT

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY NOV/DEC 2024, 18+ POPULATION, COLLECTED BY KIIS,

CATI, N= 1,600, PERCENT OF POPULATION SHOWN, MARGIN OF ERROR NO GREATER THAN 3.3%

 

 

Any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure by macro region

	West	Centre	South	East
Completely Agree	36%	39%	39%	27%
Somewhat Agree	19%	21%	21%	22%
Somewhat Disagree	20%	21%	20%	26%
Completely Disagree	14%	9%	10%	16%
Hard to Say	11%	9%	10%	6%
Refuse to Answer	0%	2%	1%	3%

 

 

 

AGREEMENT THAT ANY PEACE AGREEMENT THAT DOES NOT RESTORE THE FULL TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF UKRAINE IS DOOMED TO FAILURE BY LANGUAGE SPOKEN IN PRIVATE LIFE

 

% of population

 

 

 

IBIF PROJECT

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY NOV/DEC 2024, 18+ POPULATION, COLLECTED BY KIIS,

CATI, N= 1,600, PERCENT OF POPULATION SHOWN, MARGIN OF ERROR NO GREATER THAN 3.3%

 

 

 

 

Any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure by language spoken in private life

 

	Ukrainian	Russian	Ukrainian & Russian equally	Other language
Completely Agree	39.3%	26.8%	33.6%	27.0%
Somewhat Agree	20.6%	11.4%	25.0%	21.1%
Somewhat Disagree	18.1%	32.2%	23.1%	26.3%
Completely Disagree	10.6%	17.3%	10.7%	12.7%
Hard to Say	10.1%	10.5%	6.9%	10.0%
Refuse to Answer	1.3%	1.8%	0.6%	2.9%

 

 

 

What does divide Ukrainians in their views of what Trump’s second presidency means for Ukraine is their commitment to the territoriality of Ukraine and belief that “any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure”. In fact even though a majority (54.8%) of those who completely or somewhat agree that “any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure” see the election of Donald Trump as more good, good, or extremely good for Ukraine, when we run statistical analyses (Ordinary Least Squares, with marginal effects) we see that this view on territorial integrity distinguishes between those who see Trump’s Presidency as generally more negative for Ukraine from all others. Those who completely agree or somewhat agree that “any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure” are 6 percentage points more likely to see Trump’s election as negative. Thus, Trump and his administration still must prove their capacity to negotiate a deal that is perceived to be one that can lead to lasting and sustainable peace.

 

Any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure by positive to negative view on Trump’s presidency

	Completely agree	Somewhat agree	Somewhat disagree	Completely disagree
Extremely good	4.4%	3.0%	5.0%	15.7%
Good	12.7%	8.5%	11.7%	14.3%
More good than bad	36.5%	45.4%	44.9%	34.0%
More bad than good	19.4%	16.2%	9.4%	9.8%
Bad	3.8%	2.3%	2.4%	5.3%
Extremely bad	3.2%	2.0%	3.3%	1.8%
Hard to Say	18.9%	21.7%	21.5%	17.8%
Refuse to Answer	1.0%	0.9%	1.9%	1.4%

 

 

VIEWS ON TRUMP OF UKRAINIANS WHO AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT ANY PEACE AGREEMENT THAT DOES NOT RESTORE THE FULL TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF UKRAINE IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

 

(The people of the United States recently voted for Donald Trump to return to the U.S. presidency. How good or bad is this for Ukraine?)

 

% of population

 

 

 

IBIF PROJECT

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY NOV/DEC 2024, 18+ POPULATION, COLLECTED BY KIIS,

CATI, N= 1,600, PERCENT OF POPULATION SHOWN, MARGIN OF ERROR NO GREATER THAN 3.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Project Overview

Identity and Borders in Flux: The Case of Ukraine” (IBiF) is survey project, funded by The British Academy under the “Tackling the UK’s International Challenges” Funding Scheme grant number IC4/100280, that studies identity, public opinion, and political behaviour in Ukraine in wartime. Based at the University of Manchester and lead by Professor Olga Onuch, the IBIF project brings together scholars from the United Kingdom, Germany, Ukraine, and the United States. The centrepiece of the project is a two-wave face-to-face panel survey conducted in 2023 and 2024. The project also includes a number of cross-sectional surveys and a three wave panel survey of PTSD in wartime with funding from George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian studies (IERES, Washington, DC), ZOiS (Berlin) and KonKoop (Berlin). 

The IBIF project revisits the question of whether ethnonational identity is essentially immutable once formed or whether it remains highly situational and politically plastic even in countries polarized along identity lines. To better test these alternatives, IBIF proposes innovative methods to untangle the complex relationship between identities, actors interested in shaping them, and political outcomes. IBIF Project research explores the relationship between people’s identities and political preferences in today’s Ukraine. 

• Prof. Olga Onuch (University of Manchester), Principal Investigator. 
• Prof. Gwendolyn Sasse (ZOiS/University of Oxford), Co-Investigator.
• Prof. Henry Hale (George Washington University), Co-Investigator.
• Dr. Volodymyr Kulyk (Kyiv School of Economics), Co-Investigator.

Main contact Principal Investigator Professor Olga Onuch olga.onuch@manchester.ac.uk

1. In US: Henry Hale hhale@email.gwu.edu
2. In Germany: Gwendolyn Sasse gwendolyn.sasse@zois-berlin.de
3. In Ukraine: Volodymyr Kulyk v_kulyk@hotmail.com

 

Survey Methodology

British Academy Funded IBIF Project Panel Survey is a two wave nationally representative survey carried out by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Survey fieldwork for second wave took place November 22, 2024 – January 7, 2025 (n=1600). The survey was conducted via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI). The second wave of the IBIF Project Panel Survey follows up with a baseline conducted in July 2023. The purpose of the survey was to reach as many 2023 survey respondents as possible and supplement the sample with new respondents (i.e. complete at least 1,600 interviews in total).

Data collection started with attempt to reach 2023 survey respondents. After the database has been exhausted, the sample for new entries has been generated. The universe for the National Representative Pollconsists of all adults in age 18 years old and older, who were the residents of one of the 24 Ukrainian oblasts or city of Kyiv by February 23, 2022 (before Russian full-scale invasion). The temporarily occupied territories by February 23, 2022 (Autonomous Republic of Crimea, city of Sevastopol, and occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) are excluded from the sample. The respondents resided abroad have not been caught by the survey. The respondents residing on the territories that were occupied after February 24, 2022, could have been interviewed in case there were Ukrainian mobile network working and if they felt safe to answer the questions.

To meet survey aims, one-staged sample based on random generation of mobile phone numbers was developed. No quota / strata were use (except age no less than 18 years and living on Government-controlled area by February 23, 2022). Interviewers continued calling respondents and conducting interviews until 1600 completed interviews were conducted. At least 4 attempts were made to establish a contact with panel respondents and newly generated mobile phone numbers. Total, 1600 interviews have been conducted (531 with 2023 panel respondents and 1069 with newcomers). Minimum response rate for the total sample was 9.6%; cooperation rate was 15.9%.

KIIS prepared weights that consider different sampling probabilities (due to different number of mobile phone numbers) and correct region-type of settlement-gender-age structure (to meet data from State statistical service). Respondents were asked where they lived by February 23, 2022, and during the weights procedures these parameters were used to adjust to the official statistics (reflecting the situation before Russian full-scale invasion). All data is weighted to the population for the analysis.

 

CITE AS

Onuch O., Kulyk V., Hale H., Sasse G. (2024). “IBIF Project: Wave Two National Representative Panel Survey of the Ukrainian Population (November 2024-January 2025).” Identity and Borders in Flux (IBIF): The Case of Ukraine. See: www.ibifukraine.com

 

For short citation/ internal citation please use as depending on citation practice and type of

reference: Onuch, Kulyk, Hale, Sasse (2024) or IBIF Survey Wave Two (2024)