Olga Onuch, Henry Hale, Volodymyr Kulyk, Gwendolyn Sasse

“Trump Gets Misinformed on Zelensky”

63% of Ukrainians Approve of President Zelensky … and he remains the most popular politician in Ukraine.

www.IBIFUkriaine.com

February 19, 2025

N.B.: All survey information at end.

UoM Press Release

University of Manchester Professor Olga Onuch, along with her colleagues Professors Henry Hale of George Washington University, Volodymyr Kulyk of the Kyiv School of Economics, and Gwendolyn Sasse of Humboldt University and ZOiS, as part of the IBIF, MOBILISE, UCEPS project teams, have conducted dozens of surveys in Ukraine since 2014. Working with the most reputable firm in Ukraine, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, and having polled Ukrainians for years, they have a good handle on what Ukrainians think.

Ukrainians’ approval of President Zelensky

When Onuch’s IBIF Project team (funded by the British Academy) recently asked Ukrainians, “Do you approve or disapprove of the actions of the following politicians: Volodymyr Zelensky as President?” they found that President Zelensky’s support has slightly gone up from their previous survey with 63% of Ukrainians completely or tending to approve of his actions as President.

* Please note that the graph shows data on approval. This indicator is close to the indicator of trust, but they are not completely identical (for example, you can approve of a person’s activities, but not trust them).
Also, these indicators (both approval and trust) differ from the electoral rating, when a person has to choose from a list who he will vote for. In the case of voting, people apply different evaluation criteria and this reflects a different attitude.

Many people are now manipulating data and present approval/trust levels as electoral ratings, which is not correct. Therefore, please be careful.

Ukrainians’ views of President Zelensky

Moreover, when the team asked Ukrainians about the qualities that President Zelensky poses, large majorities agreed that he embodied positive characteristics: 74% said that he is a patriot of Ukraine, 73% thought he is an intelligent and knowledgeable person, 60% found him to be honest and trustworthy, and 65% found him to be a strong leader. Scores that might be the envy of many Western leaders.

Ukrainians want opposition to work more collaboratively with the President

And while Zelensky remains the most popular politician (even if his popularity has declined from record highs observed in 2022 and 2023), this does not mean that Ukrainians do not want him to work more with opposition forces and vice versa. 70% of all Ukrainians tend to agree or agree completely that "The President should include more opposition politicians in his cabinet?” But even more Ukrainians think the opposition should do more to show a united front in Ukraine. 82% of all Ukrainians tend to agree or agree completely that "Opposition figures should find a way to work collaboratively with the President.” Thus, although a majority of Ukrainians approve of the President, they want to see more cooperation and they firmly also place responsibility on the opposition to do more to achieve this.

Who would Ukrainians vote for?

Zelensky is still the most popular politician - the even more popular generals are neither politicians nor are they currently running for office. Among political leaders, Zelensky leads in polls about prospective elections with an estimated 26%-32% of the Ukrainian population reporting they would vote for him in the first round, placing him well ahead of the next politician and former President Petro Poroshenko, who receives 5-6% (of the whole Ukrainian population reporting). When we look only at decided and likely voters, Zelensky receives 32-41%, and the next politician candidates, Dymytro Razumkov and Petro Poroshenko still trail in the single digits. Whilst this can, of course, change - not least if a new candidate would enter the race when it is announced - this result suggests that it is highly likely that Zelensky would almost certainly be among the final two candidates in a second-round run-off. Moreover, as things stand today, he would be the front runner among politicians. A potential contender in a run-off could be a popular military figure General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former Commander in Chief and current Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK, but he has not voiced publicly any political ambitions.

IBIF Project Overview

Identity and Borders in Flux: The Case of Ukraine” (IBiF) is survey project, funded by The British Academy under the “Tackling the UK’s International Challenges” Funding Scheme grant number IC4/100280, that studies identity, public opinion, and political behaviour in Ukraine in wartime. Based at the University of Manchester and lead by Professor Olga Onuch, the IBIF project brings together scholars from the United Kingdom, Germany, Ukraine, and the United States. The centrepiece of the project is a two-wave face-to-face panel survey conducted in 2023 and 2024. The project also includes a number of cross-sectional surveys and a three wave panel survey of PTSD in wartime with funding from George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian studies (IERES, Washington, DC), ZOiS (Berlin) and KonKoop (Berlin). 

The IBIF project revisits the question of whether ethnonational identity is essentially immutable once formed or whether it remains highly situational and politically plastic even in countries polarized along identity lines. To better test these alternatives, IBIF proposes innovative methods to untangle the complex relationship between identities, actors interested in shaping them, and political outcomes. IBIF Project research explores the relationship between people’s identities and political preferences in today’s Ukraine. 

• Prof. Olga Onuch (University of Manchester), Principal Investigator. 
• Prof. Gwendolyn Sasse (ZOiS/University of Oxford), Co-Investigator.
• Prof. Henry Hale (George Washington University), Co-Investigator.
• Dr. Volodymyr Kulyk (Kyiv School of Economics), Co-Investigator.

Main contact Principal Investigator Professor Olga Onuch olga.onuch@manchester.ac.uk

1. In US: Henry Hale hhale@email.gwu.edu
2. In Germany: Gwendolyn Sasse gwendolyn.sasse@zois-berlin.de
3. In Ukraine: Volodymyr Kulyk v_kulyk@hotmail.com

Survey Methodology

British Academy Funded IBIF Project Panel Survey is a two wave nationally representative survey carried out by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Survey fieldwork for second wave took place November 22, 2024 – January 7, 2025 (n=1600). The survey was conducted via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI). The second wave of the IBIF Project Panel Survey follows up with a baseline conducted in July 2023. The purpose of the survey was to reach as many 2023 survey respondents as possible and supplement the sample with new respondents (i.e. complete at least 1,600 interviews in total).

Data collection started with attempt to reach 2023 survey respondents. After the database has been exhausted, the sample for new entries has been generated. The universe for the National Representative Pollconsists of all adults in age 18 years old and older, who were the residents of one of the 24 Ukrainian oblasts or city of Kyiv by February 23, 2022 (before Russian full-scale invasion). The temporarily occupied territories by February 23, 2022 (Autonomous Republic of Crimea, city of Sevastopol, and occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) are excluded from the sample. The respondents resided abroad have not been caught by the survey. The respondents residing on the territories that were occupied after February 24, 2022, could have been interviewed in case there were Ukrainian mobile network working and if they felt safe to answer the questions.

To meet survey aims, one-staged sample based on random generation of mobile phone numbers was developed. No quota / strata were use (except age no less than 18 years and living on Government-controlled area by February 23, 2022). Interviewers continued calling respondents and conducting interviews until 1600 completed interviews were conducted. At least 4 attempts were made to establish a contact with panel respondents and newly generated mobile phone numbers. Total, 1600 interviews have been conducted (531 with 2023 panel respondents and 1069 with newcomers). Minimum response rate for the total sample was 9.6%; cooperation rate was 15.9%.

KIIS prepared weights that consider different sampling probabilities (due to different number of mobile phone numbers) and correct region-type of settlement-gender-age structure (to meet data from State statistical service). Respondents were asked where they lived by February 23, 2022, and during the weights procedures these parameters were used to adjust to the official statistics (reflecting the situation before Russian full-scale invasion). All data is weighted to the population for the analysis.

CITE AS

Onuch O., Kulyk V., Hale H., Sasse G. (2024-2025). “IBIF Project: Wave Two National Representative Panel Survey of the Ukrainian Population (November 2024-January 2025).” Identity and Borders in Flux (IBIF): The Case of Ukraine. See: www.IBIFUkraine.com

For short citation/ internal citation please use as depending on citation practice and type of

reference: Onuch, Kulyk, Hale, Sasse (2024) or IBIF Survey Wave Two (2024-2025)

MOBILISE Project Overview

1. Project Title: Determinants of ‘Mobilisation’ at Home & Abroad
2. Funding: This research was in part funded by the Open Research Area funded MOBILISE project (www.mobiliseproject.com) Grant Ref ESRC ES/S015213/1. The 2024 data were collected by the French team.
3. Survey Objectives: The MOBILISE Project aims to understand the determinants of ‘mobilisation’ at home and abroad through a multi-wave, nationally representative panel survey. The survey collects data on citizens’ attitudes towards protests, migration, political engagement, and sociopolitical factors. This project spans four countries: Ukraine, Poland, Argentina, and Morocco. Thus, the primary aim of the MOBILISE survey is to collect information on citizens’ attitudes towards and personal experiences of protest and migration, along with other political, sociological, and demographic factors. This survey series also provides insights into shifts in attitudes over time, especially in the context of ongoing war in Ukraine.

General MOBILISE Project Methodology

Questionnaire: The questionnaire was designed by the MOBILISE Project PIs/CoIs and reviewed by an external Expert Advisory Board. It includes five sections:

1. Media Consumption
2. Political dispositions and engagement
3. Migration experience and intention
4. Other issue positions, policy preferences, and item opinions
5. Demographics

The questionnaire also includes questions related to the ongoing war (in the context of Ukraine) and several pre-registered experiments to assess various sociopolitical attitudes.

Temporal Scope of Main Panel: The main panel surveys were conducted in four different waves:

• Wave 1: March-April 2019 for Ukraine.
• Wave 2: October 2020 – April 2021 for Ukraine.
• Wave 3: December 2021 – February 2022 for Ukraine.
• Wave 4: 11th September 2023 - 29th September 2023 for Ukraine.

Sampling Procedure The sampling design includes a three-stage stratified random sampling approach:

1. First Stage: Stratification by regions (e.g., oblasts in Ukraine).
2. Second Stage: Differentiation between urban and rural populations.
3. Third Stage: Selection of voting precincts proportional to the adult population.

In Ukraine, the sample includes all regions controlled by the Ukrainian government, excluding Crimea and occupied territories. The sample is representative of the 18+ population with mobile phones, excluding those serving in the army, imprisoned, or in medical facilities.

Data Collection Mode The survey employs different modes depending on the wave:

• Wave 1: CAPI (Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing) for face-to-face interviews.
• Wave 2: CAPI and CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing) for face-to-face and phone interviews.
• Wave 3: CATI for phone interviews due to COVID-19 and other logistical reasons.
• Wave 4: CATI for phone interviews as per the ongoing conditions.

Weights: Weights were applied to correct for overrepresentation of certain demographics (e.g., older individuals and urban residents). Probability weights were estimated to correct for the overrepresentation of men, older individuals, and urban residents.

Response Rates and Representativeness

• Wave 1 Ukraine: Complete Interviews - 2011; Response Rate - 52%.
• Wave 2 Ukraine: Complete Interviews - 1450; Response Rate - 60%.
• Wave 3 Ukraine: Complete Interviews - 1218; Response Rate for new entries - 12.1%, for panel participants - 55%.
• Wave 4 Ukraine: Complete Interviews - 2025; Response Rate for new entries - 10.1%, for panel participants - 14.6%.

The samples are representative of the respective 18+ permanent residents, excluding certain groups as mentioned above.

General Overview of MOBILSIE KIIS Omnibus Surveys

The MOBILISE project included a battery of 15-25 questions in three nationwide Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) OMNIBUS surveys conducted in Ukraine, spanning from July 2022 to May 2024. These surveys aimed to capture the opinions and views of the adult population (aged 18 and older) on various socio-political and socio-economic issues. The surveys were conducted using the computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) method, which involved randomly generating mobile phone numbers for all major mobile operators in Ukraine and subsequently contacting respondents for interviews.

MOBILSIE KIIS Omnibus Survey Methodology

Sampling and Data Collection

• Sample Size: Each survey targeted approximately 2000 respondents.
• Geographic Coverage: The surveys covered all regions of Ukraine except for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and regions temporarily not controlled by Ukrainian authorities until February 24, 2022 (some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
• Language: Interviews were conducted in Ukrainian or Russian, based on respondent preference.
• Exclusion: The surveys did not include citizens who had gone abroad after February 24, 2022.
• Random Generation of Numbers: Mobile phone numbers were generated randomly, with proportional representation for each mobile operator.
• Verification: An “invisible” SMS message was sent to verify the existence of generated numbers.
• Interview Invitations: Interviewers called the verified numbers and invited respondents to participate in the survey.
• Post-Survey Adjustment: After data collection, the sample distribution was compared with official statistics on macroregions, settlement types, gender, and age to ensure representativeness. Special statistical weights were applied to align the sample structure with the overall population structure of Ukraine.

Sampling Method

Weighting and Adjustment

Detailed Survey Information

1. July 2022 Survey

• Field Stage: July 06 to July 18, 2022
• Sample Size: 2000 respondents
• Margin of Error:
  • ±2.4% for indicators close to 50%
  • ±2.1% for indicators close to 25% or 75%
  • ±1.5% for indicators close to 10% or 90%
  • ±1.1% for indicators close to 5% or 95%
  • ±0.5% for indicators close to 1% or 99%

1. February 2023 Survey

• Field Stage: February 22 to March 06, 2023
• Sample Size: 2007 respondents
• Margin of Error:
  • ±2.4% for indicators close to 50%
  • ±2.1% for indicators close to 25% or 75%
  • ±1.5% for indicators close to 10% or 90%
  • ±1.1% for indicators close to 5% or 95%
  • ±0.5% for indicators close to 1% or 99%

1. May 2024 Survey

• Field Stage: May 26 to June 01, 2024
• Sample Size: 2011 respondents
• Margin of Error:
  • ±2.4% for indicators close to 50%
  • ±2.1% for indicators close to 25% or 75%
  • ±1.5% for indicators close to 10% or 90%
  • ±1.1% for indicators close to 5% or 95%
  • ±0.5% for indicators close to 1% or 99%