The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

In this press release, we consider the results of two of our own surveys, which were conducted in February-March 2025 and in which we, on our own initiative, asked questions about the perception of the policy of the West as a whole, Europe and the USA separately, as well as D. Trump, regarding Ukraine.

Both surveys were conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) and are representative of the adult population of Ukraine in the territories controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The first survey was conducted on February 14-March 4, 2025 and 2,029 respondents were surveyed (margin of error 2.4%). The second survey was conducted on March 12-22, 2025 and 1,326 respondents were surveyed (margin of error 2.5%). 

KIIS has been researching public moods in the context of the perception of Western policy towards Ukraine since 2022. And although we saw alarming trends by the end of 2024, it was the 2024 USA presidential election and D. Trump's victory that had an extremely significant impact.

In February-March 2025, we came to understand that among Ukrainians there is a differentiated attitude towards “Europe” and “the USA”, so we conducted an experiment where different respondents were asked either our typical monitoring question about the perception of Western policy (in general, without specifying who exactly we understand by “the West”), or to specify what we were asking about the policy of Europe or the USA.

In addition, in December 2024, as part of our own surveys, as well as in partner surveys, we asked questions about the perception of D. Trump's victory. Given the high intensity of the new USA administration's actions, in February-March and March 2025, we re-asked questions about how Ukrainians' expectations of D. Trump had changed.

So, first, it is worth looking at how respondents' answers to our typical monitoring question about Western policy regarding Ukraine changed from September 2022 to March 2025. So, respondents had to choose one of two options:

• either the West gets tired of Ukraine and its support weakens, and the West itself puts pressure on Ukraine for concessions;
• or the West continues to assist Ukraine and wants the war to end on terms acceptable to Ukraine.

As can be seen, the current moodsare worse than they were in 2022 (i.e., faith in the West has decreased), but the dynamics have been nonlinear and over the past year, on the contrary, we have seen an improvement in the situation. Thus, initially, from September 2022 to February 2024, the share of those who critically assess the West's policy towards Ukraine increased from 15% to 44%. However, their share then decreased to 31% in February-March 2025. That is, now 31% of Ukrainians believe that the West is getting tired and putting pressure on Ukraine (and, accordingly, does not want an acceptable peace).

At the same time, from September 2022 to February 2024, the number of those who believe in the support of the West and believe in its desire for an acceptable peace for Ukraine decreased from 73% to 49%. Then, by February-March 2025, their share increased to 62%. That is, currently the majority of Ukrainians – 62% – consider the West an ally and partner in achieving an acceptable peace.

Graph 1. And with which statement regarding the West's support for Ukraine do you agree to a greater extent?

Currently, the differences in USA and European politics are visible to the naked eye, so as part of the experiment, we asked a randomly selected part of the respondents questions, as before, about the West (results above), another part about the USA, and another part about Europe. We initially asked this question in a survey during February 14-March 4, 2025. Taking all the circumstances into account, we asked this question again about the USA in a survey during March 12-22, 2025.

As can be seen in the graph below, we have a practically “mirror” perception of Europe and the USA. In the case of Europe, 64% consider it an ally of Ukraine that wants peace on acceptable terms, while 28% do not. In the case of the USA, according to the latest data, 67% believe that they are tired of Ukraine and are pressuring for concessions. Believe that the USA is an ally that wants an acceptable peace – 24%.

Given the closeness of the ratings for the “West” as a whole to the ratings for “Europe,” it can be assumed that Ukrainians now mostly understand Europe by the “West.” Perhaps the fact that the perception of the West has improved over the past year means that Ukrainians have improved their attitude towards Europe in particular and its commitment to Ukraine during this period.

Graph 2. And with which statement about Europe/USA support for Ukraine do you agree to a greater extent

The graph and table below show the results for our question, can Ukraine count on a fair peace under President D. Trump? If in December 2024 Ukrainians had cautious and even cautiously optimistic assessments, then since February 2025 we have seen a significant deterioration in their assessments.

So, in December 2024, 31% believed that under D. Trump, Ukraine could count on a rather unfair or completely unfair peace (moreover, not many expected a more or less fair peace, and a significant part had vague expectations, which included expectations for at least partial justice for Ukraine). Between February 14 and March 4, 2025, the share of those who say the peace is rather or completely unfair increased to 58%. Between March 12 and 22, 2025, there were only slightly fewer of them, and still the majority expressed critical opinions – 55%.

Currently, according to the latest data, only 18% expect a more or less fair peace, while another 21% believe that it will be partly fair and partly not.

Graph 3. And how do you feel, under USA President Trump, Ukraine can count on...?

Table 1. How do you feel, under USA President Trump, Ukraine can count on…? (full results)

In December 2024, KIIS also conducted a survey as part of the IBIF project for a team of researchers: Onuch O., Kulyk V., Hale H., Sasse G.[1] One of the questions was “Recently, citizens of the United States voted to return Donald Trump to the position of President of the United States. Do you think this is good or bad for Ukraine?” We decided to repeat their question in our own survey in March 2025 in a slightly modified form: “As of January of this year, Donald Trump is the new President of the United States. Do you think this is good or bad for Ukraine?” The results are shown in the graph and table below.

We see even more pronounced changes since December 2024. For example, before the New Year, 54% of Ukrainians believed that it was generally good for Ukraine that D. Trump would be the President of the United States. However, in March 2025, only 19% thought so. Instead, the share of those who believe that it is bad for Ukraine that D. Trump became President increased from 21% in December 2024 to 73% in March 2025.

Graph 4. Since January of this year, Donald Trump is the new President of the USA. Do you think this is good or bad for Ukraine?

Table 2. Since January of this year, Donald Trump is the new President of the USA. Do you think this is good or bad for Ukraine? (full results)

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

For Ukraine, maintaining constructive and partnership-based relations with Europe and the United States is a vital necessity. From the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainians perceived the war as a joint cause of Ukraine and its Western allies. In particular, successes on the battlefield were also perceived as a joint achievement of Ukrainians and our friends in the West.

Tectonic changes in USA foreign policy in 2025 affect both Ukraine and a number of other states and associations (such as Canada, Denmark, the European Union, etc.). However, we are in the midst of a bloody war, so for the average Ukrainian such changes in the rhetoric and actions of USA officials are especially painful. A number of observers rightly point out (such as, for example, S. Sydorenko from the UP) that current events may lay the foundation for anti-Americanism in Ukraine. In Ukraine, even before 2025, there was a certain disappointment with USA actions, and the Trump administration is quite resolutely cementing the disapproving perception of the USA.

It is important that this is not currently being passed on to Europe, and the latter continues to be perceived primarily as a partner and ally of Ukraine. However, if Europe does not take strong enough steps, and in particular if there is no sufficient progress towards Ukraine’s accession to the EU, frustration and ultimately anti-Western moods may develop among Ukrainians. This scenario would be a strong and devastating shock for Ukraine, as well as for Europe and the entire Western world. Therefore, it is important to make every effort to avoid it and maintain optimism about Ukraine’s European future (and in addition to the “homework” for Ukraine, there is certainly a persistent call for Europe to be decisive).

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from questionnaire

Survey February 14-March 4, 2025:

And with which statement regarding support …Ukraine do you agree to a greater extent? RANDOMIZATION OF THE ORDER OF STATEMENTS

RESPONDENT INSTEAD OF … IS RANDOMLY GIVEN ONE OF THESE OPTIONS (HIGHLIGHT IT IN RED):

А. By the West / The West        

Б. By Europe / Europe

В. USA

And how do you feel that under USAPresident Trump, Ukraine can count on …

Survey March 12-22, 2025:

RESPONDENT RANDOMLY IS GIVEN OPTION A OR Б

А: Since January of this year, Donald Trump is the new President of the USA. Do you think this is good or bad for Ukraine?

Б: And how do you feel that under USAPresident Trump, Ukraine can count on …

And with which statement regarding the USA's support for Ukraine do you agree to a greater extent?