The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

On April 30, 2025, an Agreement was signed between the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States of America on the establishment of the American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund.

On May 2, 2025, KIIS began its own pre-plannedsurvey (using the method of telephone interviews among a nationwide sample of adult citizens living in the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), to which we added a question about the perception of the consequences of this Agreement at the last moment. The field phase of the survey is scheduled to last until mid-May 2025, but as of May 6, 561 interviews had been conducted. This number is sufficient to understand the preliminary results (taking into account the margin of error, which is 5.4% at a confidence level of 95% and a design effect of 1.3) and, in our experience, the final results will not fundamentally differ..

Since on May 8, 2025 (according to media reports) there may be a vote in the Verkhovna Rada on the ratification of this Agreement and taking into account the separate discussions that arise around the Agreement, we decided to publish the preliminary results (which may be useful for participants in the discussions and legislators if they want to understand public moods on this issue and take them into account when making decisions).

Respondents were asked the question: “How, in your opinion, will the Minerals Agreement that Ukraine signed with the USA affect Ukraine?” Respondents were also offered options such as “rather positively”, “rather negatively”, “will not affect at all”.

So, as of early May 2025, 47% of Ukrainians had rather positive expectations from the signing of the Agreement. 22% said it would have rather negative consequences, and another 19% said that the signing of the Agreement would have no impact on Ukraine. The remaining 12% could not decide on this opinion.

Graph 1. How do you think the Minerals Agreement that Ukraine signed with the USA will affect Ukraine?

In the graph below, the results are shown by region of residence[1]. There are slightly fewer positive expectations in the East and West, although in both cases the share of those with negative expectations does not exceed a quarter, and the balance of positive-negative expectations is positive (and we must also take into account the rather small sample in each region).

Graph 2. Perception of the consequences of the Minerals Agreement in the cross-section of the region

Also in this survey, we asked questions about trust in individual Ukrainian public figures (this will be the subject of our publication in the second half of May), so we can see how those who trust a particular person perceive the Minerals Agreement.

As can be seen, in the case of all public figures, no more than a third of those who trust them believe that this Agreement will have rather negative consequences for Ukraine. At the same time, in almost all cases, the share of those who expect rather positive consequences outweighs the share of those who expect rather negative consequences (i.e. the balance of assessments is positive).

The only exception is those who trust Yu. Boiko. Among them, the fewest have positive expectations and slightly more have negative expectations of the Agreement[2]. There is also slightly less optimism among those who trust O. Arestovych (although in his case the balance of expectations is still positive). However, these results are less reliable due to the small number of their supporters in the sample

In the case of all other public figures, among those who trust them, almost a half or more believe that signing the Agreement will have more positive consequences for Ukraine.

Graph 3. Perception of the consequences of the Minerals Agreement among those who trust individual Ukrainian public figures

* Few respondents (less than 50) trust these public figures in the sample, which limits the reliability of the results. Therefore, the data is presented indicatively to understand general trends.

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

The survey results show that currently Ukrainians mostly have positive expectations from the Minerals Agreement and a minority has negative expectations. Moreover, we also see that among those who trust well-known public figures, in particular leaders of the political opposition, positive expectations from the Agreement also prevail. The exceptions are supporters of Yu. Boiko and (to a lesser extent) O. Arestovych.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

How, in your opinion, will the Minerals Agreement signed by Ukraine with the USA affect Ukraine?