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Dynamics of relationships between Ukraine and Russia

Following the schedule of joint project of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Levada Center (Russia), KIIS has conducted a nationwide opinion poll regarding attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and attitude of Russia towards Ukrainian population, which was held during the period of February 8–17, 2013. 2032 respondents were interviewed; the investigation covered all regions of Ukraine, including Kiev and Crimea Region; the sample was random and is deemed to be representative for population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

Statistical sample deviation (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
3.3% for index close to 50%,
2,8% — for index close to 25%,
2,0% — for index close to 10%,
1,4% — for index close to 5%.

Investigation, held by the Levada-Center, is representative for adult population and was conducted during the period of January 18–21, 2013. Sample counts 1601 respondents aged 18 years and covers 127 settlements.

Dynamics of Ukrainians’ answers to the following question: "What is your general attitude to Russia?"; and dynamics of Russians’ answers to the following question: "What is your general attitude to Ukraine?"

  • As before, the Ukrainian attitude toward Russia is better than attitude of Russians toward Ukraine. In comparison with September, 2012, positive attitude of Ukrainians toward Russians has insignificantly increased from 83% to 85% (the difference is statistically insignificant). At the same time, the number of negatively minded toward Russia has slightly decreased from 11% to 8% (statistically significant difference). 7% of respondents could not answer the question.
  • In terms of regional distribution the situation remains the same as before. Positively oriented population toward Russia lives in the Eastern (94%) and Southern regions (92%) of Ukraine; the smallest share of people, who positively perceive Russia, inhabits Western region (68%). Central Region population has positive attitude toward Russia in 86% of respondents. It should be noted that in comparison with September, 2012, this number has statistically significantly increased in the Western (from 63% to 68%) and Eastern regions (from 90% to 94%).
  • Attitude toward Ukraine in Russia has not been statistically changed during this period; and the number of positive minded is 74%, negative — 18%; could not answer the question 10% of respondents.

Dynamics answers of Russians and Ukrainians to the following question: "What relations would you like to see between Ukraine and Russia?"

  • In both countries the vast majority of respondents would like to see both countries independent but friendly states — with open borders without visas and customs (in Ukraine — 68%, in Russia — 64%). In Ukraine, this number has decreased from September by 4%, the opposite situation is in Russia, where this number has increased by 4%.
  • The number of those who prefer the relations between Russia and Ukraine to be more isolated with closed borders, visas and customs is almost the same. Both countries showed 13% of supporters of the idea above.
  • Creation of the united state is desired by 18% of Russians and 16% of Ukrainians. There are no significant changes observed in this index in comparison with the data obtained in September 2012. But during the last year (February 2012 — February 2013), the share of Russians, who would like to see the united state of Russia and Ukraine, has become slightly higher than the corresponding number of Ukrainians, while before the share of Ukrainians who support the idea above, prevailed.

 

Application

Figure 1. Dynamics of relationships between Ukraine and Russia

 

Figure 2. Dynamics of desire to unite both countries into a single state, %

 
 
Ukraine’s Attitude Toward Russia, % Russia’s Attitude Toward Ukraine, %
Date Very Good Very Bad Difficult to Say TOTAL Date Very Good Very Bad Difficult to Say TOTAL
Apr,08 88 7 5 100 Mar,08 55 33 12 100
Sep,08 88 9 3 100 Sep,08 38 53 10 100
Feb,09 91 5 4 100 Jan,09 29 62 10 100
May,09 93 4 3 100 May,09 33 56 11 100
Oct,09 92 6 3 100 Sep,09 46 44 10 100
Mar,10 90 6 4 100 Mar,10 59 29 12 100
Jun,10 92 6 3 100 Jul,10 70 22 9 100
Oct,10 93 4 3 100 Oct,10 67 21 12 100
Nov,11 80 13 7 100 Sep,11 68 23 9 100
Feb,12 85 9 6 100 Jan,12 64 25 12 100
Sep,12 83 11 6 100 Sep,12 74 17 10 100
Feb,13 85 8 7 100 Feb,13 69 21 9 100
 
 
Attitude toward Russia in Ukraine (by region):
  Macroregions
  West Central Area South East
Very Good, Almost Good 68.2 86.0 91.6 93.9
Almost Bad, Very Bad 20.2 6.0 2.8 3.2
Difficult to Say 11.6 8.0 5.6 2.9
TOTAL 100 100 100 100
 
 
"What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?"
  UKRAINE
Date Relation should be the same we have with other countries with closed borders, visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent, but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should unite Difficult to Say TOTAL
Apr,2008 10 67 20 3 100
Sep,2008 17 66 16 2 100
Feb,2009 8 68 23 1 100
May,2009 10 65 23 2 100
Oct,2009 11 67 19 3 100
Mar,2010 11 67 19 3 100
Jun,2010 12 70 16 2 100
Oct,2010 10 67 20 2 100
Nov,2011 13 67 16 1 100
Feb,2012 13 69 16 2 100
Sep,2012 11 72 14 3 100
Feb,2013 13 68 16 3 100
  RUSSIA
  Relation should be the same we have with other countries with closed borders, visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent, but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should unite Difficult to Say TOTAL
Mar,2008  19  56  19  100
Sep,2008  24  52  13  11  100
Jan,2009  29  51  12  100
May,2009  25  55  14  100
Sep,2009  25  55  13  100
Mar,2010  25  55  14  100
Jul,2010  17  64  13  100
Oct,2010  16  60  18  100
Sep,2011 16 63 14 6 100
Jan,2012 16 61 16 8 100
Sep,2012 14 60 20 6 100
Feb,2013 13 64 18 6 100
 

3.4.2013
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