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Electoral moods of Ukrainian voters two weeks before the presidential elections
KyivInternationalInstituteofSociology (KIIS) conductedall-UkrainianpublicopinionpollduringApril29 - May11, 2014. 2022 respondentsweresurveyedwithface-to-faceinterviewingmethodin 110 settlementsinallregionsofUkraine(excludingARCrimea);thesampleisrandomand representative for the Ukrainian population aged 18 years and older.
Statisticalsampleerror(withprobabilityof0.95 andexcludingdesign-effect) doesnotexceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2,8% — for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% — for indicators close to 10%, 1,4% — for indicators close to 5%
Ifthepresidentialelectionswilltakeplacetwo weeks earlier, the votes of Ukrainian citizens aged 18 years old and older would be distributed as follows -
- 33,7% would vote for Petro Poroshenko,
- 5.9% - for Yuliya Tymoshenko,
- 4.1% - for Serhii Tyhipko,
- 4.0% - for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
- 3.3% - for Oleh Liashko,
- 2.6% - for Mykhailo Dobkin,
- 2.4% - for Petro Symonenko,
- 2.1% - for Olha Bohomolets,
- 1.0% - for Oleh Tiahnybok
- forthe other 14 candidates – 2,4 in total%,
- 13,0 % - decided not to participate in voting
- ³ 25,4% - did not decide whom to vote for.
Therefore, ifthepresidentialelectionswouldtakeplace 2 weeksearlier, andallpeoplewhohadnotmadetheirchoiceatthatmoment, thetotalnumberofvoteswouldbearound 62%of the number of voters, while other candidates would get the following distribution of votes:
- 54.7% - for Petro Poroshenko,
- 9.6% - for Yuliya Tymoshenko,
- 6.7% - for Serhii Tyhipko,
- 6.5% - for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
- 5.4% - for Oleh Liashko,
- 4.3% - for Mykhailo Dobkin,
- 3.9% - for Petro Symonenko,
- 3.5% - for Olha Bohomolets,
- 1.6% - for Oleh Tiahnybok.
Therewillbenoneedinthesecondroundofelectionsincaseofsuchdistributionofvotes.
RegionaldistributionofPetro Poroshenko’ssupportersamongallUkrainiancitizensagedover 18 years old is as follows[1]:
- in the Western region – 53%, in the Central– 41%, in the Southern - 25% and in the Eastern – around 11%.
Appendix
The first question regarding assumable elections was asked as follows:
IftheelectionswilltakeplacethisSunday, wouldyouvote?IF «YES» Which candidate would you vote for?
|
Candidates |
May 11Expected participation in the elections62% |
% outofallcitisens aged18 y.o. and more |
% of those who are ready to vote and made their choice |
1 |
Poroshenko Petro |
33.7 |
54.7 |
2 |
Tymoshenko Yuliya |
5.9 |
9.6 |
3 |
Tihipko Serhii |
4.1 |
6.7 |
4 |
Hrytsenko Anatolii |
4.0 |
6.5 |
5 |
Liashko Oleh |
3.3 |
5.4 |
6 |
Dobkin Makhailo |
2.6 |
4.3 |
7 |
Symonenko Petro |
2.4 |
3.9 |
8 |
Bohomolets Olha |
2.1 |
3.5 |
9 |
Tiahnybok Oleh |
1.0 |
1.6 |
10 |
Rabinovych Vadym |
0.6 |
0.9 |
11 |
Yarysh Dmytro |
0.6 |
0.9 |
12 |
Tsariov Oleh |
0.3 |
0.5 |
13 |
Korolevska Natalia |
0.2 |
0.3 |
14 |
Boiko Yurii |
0.2 |
0.2 |
15 |
Konovaliuk Valerii |
0.2 |
0.2 |
16 |
Tsushko Vasyl |
0.2 |
0.2 |
17 |
Hrynenko Andrii |
0.1 |
0.2 |
18 |
Klymenko Oleksandr |
0.1 |
0.2 |
19 |
Kuzmin Renat |
0.1 |
0.1 |
20 |
Saranov Volodymyr |
0.1 |
0.1 |
21 |
Kuibida Vasyl’ |
0.0 |
0.0 |
22 |
Malomuzh Mykola |
0.0 |
0.0 |
23 |
Shkiriak Zorian |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
WOULD NOT VOTE |
13.0 |
- |
|
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER |
25.4 |
- |
|
TOTAL |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Distribution of candidates’ supporters in the regions
(% of all residents of the region aged 18 y.o. and more)
|
Macroregions |
Western |
Central |
Southern |
Eastern |
Poroshenko Petro |
53.0 |
41.4 |
25.3 |
10.5 |
Tymoshenko Yuliya |
7.9 |
8.6 |
4.8 |
1.2 |
Tihipko Serhii |
1.1 |
2.4 |
8.1 |
5.6 |
Hrytsenko Anatolii |
4.1 |
5.7 |
4.4 |
1.2 |
Liashko Oleh |
7.1 |
3.6 |
2.2 |
0 |
Dobkin Makhailo |
0 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
8.6 |
Symonenko Petro |
0 |
1.8 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
Bohomolets Olha |
3.0 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
Tiahnybok Oleh |
1.5 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
Rabinovych Vadym |
0.2 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
Yarosh Dmytro |
1.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
Tsariov Oleh |
0 |
0 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
Korolevska Natalia |
0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0 |
Boiko Yurii |
0 |
0.3 |
0 |
0.2 |
Konovaliuk Valerii |
0 |
0 |
0.7 |
0 |
Tsushko Vasyl |
0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0 |
Hrynenko Andrii |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
Klymenko Oleksandr |
0 |
0.3 |
0 |
0 |
Kuzmin Renat |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.2 |
Saranov Volodymyr |
0 |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
DO NOT KNOW/DIFFICULT TO ANSWER |
17.1 |
24.9 |
28.6 |
31.5 |
WOULD NOT VOTE |
3.6 |
6.5 |
13.4 |
32.2 |
TOTAL |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
[1] Western region - eight most western oblasts: Volynska, Rivnenska, Lvivska, Ivano-Frankivska, Ternopilska, Khmelnytska, Zakarpatska, and Chernivetska (24% of voters);
Centralregion - Zhytomyrska, Vinnytska, Kirovohradska, Cherkaska, Poltavska, Sumska, Chernihivska, KyiskaoblastsandthecityofKyiv(32% of voters);
Southernregion – Dnipropetrovska, Odeska, Mykolaiyvska, Khersonska, andZaporizkaoblasts (23% of voters);
Easternregion - Kharkivska, DonetskaandLuhanskaoblasts(22% of voters).
15.5.2014
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