Rating of "Batkivshchyna" party ranged from 10 to 15% during the years 2010-2013, from spring 2014 to the parliamentary elections in October 2014 it dropped significantly from 15% to 3% (relative to those who took part in the elections it was 5.7% and party held in parliament). Over the last year there was a significant increase in the rating of "Batkivshchina" from 3% to 11-13% (ie up to 20-25% compared to those who come to the polls).

Dynamics of the block of Petro Poroshenko and Radical Party of Lyashko we can provide since March 2014 (see chart 3). The lowest result party of Poroshenko had in July 2014, but at that time it was the "Solidarity" and the questionnaire didn’t indicate that it was Poroshenko’s party (its leader was Yuri Stets). In addition, research conducted in the summer, especially in July and August, sometimes differ from the other data, because in summer the population moves more, people are in the country, on vacation and sociologists do not interview them. If you do not take into account the fall in July 2014, the rating of the bloc of Poroshenko increased to 18% in September 2014, and then, during the year, fell to about 12%. As for the party of Lyashko, after rising and falling in the first half of September 2014, rating of the party stabilized at 4.6%.

Chart 3. Dynamics of the ratings of Petro Poroshenko Bloc and the Radical Party of Lyashko from March 2014 to September 2015

(ratings calculated concerning all respondents)

 

 

Chart shows 4 ratings of 3 parties - Opposition bloc, Civic position and the Right sector. Opposition bloc was increasing during the year from September 2014 to September 2015 to 6% (again, if not to take into account the July 2015 data). Civil Position fell from 6 to 2.3% and during the last year has not changed. The rating of the Right sector was about 1%, but after the parliamentary elections in October 2014, it rose to almost 4%.

Chart 4. Dynamics of the ratings Opposition bloc, Civic Position and the right sector from July 2014 to September 2015

(ratings calculated concerning all respondents)

 

Chart 5 shows the dynamics of the People’s Front and Samopomich. The rating of the People’s Front after the growth and successful elections in October 2014 was dropping continuously to September 2015 and fell to 0.7%. Samopomich rating increased from September 2014 to March 2015 (the maximum value is approximately 10% concerning all respondents), but then decreased and stabilized at 7%.

Chart 5. Dynamics of ratings of Samopomich and the People’s Front during the year from September 2014 to September 2015

(ratings calculated concerning all respondents)

 

Over the past six months, we can provide information about all parties who participated in the last election, this is largely a summary of what has already been said. Compared with March 2015 the support for "Petro Poroshenko Bloc" decreases continuously among the entire population - 16% supported the party in the spring, till summer the support dropped to 13%, till autumn - to 11.5% (chart 6). Rating Union "Batkivshchina" initially (between spring and summer) rose from 7% to 13%, but then till autumn dropped to 11% (still significantly exceeding the performance of spring). Support for "Samopomich" from spring to summer fell from 10% to 7%, and till the autumn kept relatively stable. "Opposition bloc" had some losses between spring and summer, but till autumn it reached the level of spring again.

The dynamics of ratings of political parties in elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, March-September 2015

(% Among all respondents)

 

 

 

Analysis of the results of parliamentary elections in 2007, 2012 and 2014.

The increasing part of the population of Ukraine has a pro-European orientation, pro-European parties win elections. But this process is not straightforward, the last time the percentage of support for the European way of development declined slightly, but the real situation with the support of pro-European parties disguised the fact that many of the voters who do not support Ukraine's European path, do not go to the polls.

Table 2. Percentage of votes (in relation to the registered voters) which pro-European and pro-Russian parties received in the elections of 2007, 2012 and 2014 (regions ranged by percentage which pro-European parties received in 2014)

	Pro-European parties			Pro-Russian parties
	2007	2012	2014	2007	2012	2014
Ukraine	30%	30%	40%	25%	24%	8%
Lviv region	67%	60%	67%	4%	4%	1%
Ternopil region	69%	59%	65%	3%	5%	1%
Ivano-Frankivsk region	66%	55%	60%	3%	4%	1%
Volyn region	56%	49%	58%	7%	13%	3%
Rivne region	50%	44%	53%	9%	13%	3%
Hmelnitsk region	45%	41%	52%	12%	17%	3%
Kyiv region	43%	40%	51%	10%	16%	3%
Vinnitsia region	45%	42%	50%	12%	16%	3%
Kyiv-city	40%	46%	48%	13%	12%	5%
Cherkasy region	38%	40%	48%	13%	17%	4%
Zhytomyr region	33%	35%	47%	18%	20%	5%
Chernihiv region	35%	30%	45%	17%	20%	6%
Poltava region	33%	33%	44%	20%	20%	6%
Sumy region	41%	35%	44%	14%	19%	6%
Kirovograd region	29%	29%	43%	20%	21%	6%
Chernivtsi region	39%	40%	41%	11%	15%	3%
Transcarpathian region	32%	28%	36%	11%	18%	3%
Dnipropetrovsk region	16%	20%	28%	33%	28%	16%
Herson region	18%	20%	27%	30%	26%	10%
Mykolaiv region	13%	18%	25%	37%	30%	13%
Zaporizhya region	12%	17%	25%	40%	34%	18%
Kharkiv region	14%	17%	21%	35%	32%	20%
Odessa region	11%	16%	20%	33%	29%	15%
Donetsk region	4%	7%	12%	53%	49%	18%
Luhansk region	5%	7%	11%	56%	46%	18%

For a more realistic assessment of the situation we have listed the results of parliamentary elections in relation to all registered voters (not in relation to those who took part in the elections, as does CIC). For comparison, data on Crimea is not included in all calculations (not included also a foreign provinces). Some parties were attributed to pro-European, part - to the pro-Russian, the other parties, whose position was unclear, we are not coded[1].

As we see, in the Donetsk and Luhansk region in the 2014 elections on the territory controlled by Ukraine (and elections were held only in that territory) for pro-European parties voted only 12% and 11% percent respectively. Although the percentage of support for pro-Russian parties decreased dramatically (almost 50% to 18%), it is still higher than the pro-European parties. In addition, in the Donetsk and Luhansk region did not vote 67% of registered voters.

In Odessa and Kharkiv regions support for pro-European parties from 2012 to 2014 increased only by 4% (from 16% to 20% and from 17% to 21% respectively), and the percentage of those who did not vote in 2014, in the Odessa region was 61% in Kharkiv - 55%. A bit better in terms of support for pro-European parties situation in Zaporizhzhya and Mykolaiv regions. But in general in these regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Odessa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhya, and Mykolaiv region) support for pro-European parties is not high.

In general we can conclude that in areas where there was considerable support for pro-Russian parties (including the Party of Regions and Communists) support for pro-Russian parties significantly decreased, but the support of pro-European parties grew by only 4.5%, the majority of voters in these regions don’t have parties they would support and they do not participate in elections. It is important, which political forces will be able to attract people of these regions to active political life, will the activities of these political forces in Ukraine promote integration, can the country's leaders engage in dialogue, win the trust of people in these regions and meet their expectations.