Press releases and reports - Dynamics of changes in the attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia and the population of Russia to Ukraine in the first half of 2017

ESC or click to close

Press releases and reports

Dynamics of changes in the attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia and the population of Russia to Ukraine in the first half of 2017

PressreleasebyTetianaPiaskovska

The attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia remains to be better than the attitude of the population of Russia to Ukraine: the amount of positively minded Ukrainians grows (February 2017 – 39%, May 2017 – 44%). The situation in Russia is opposite – the amount of positively minded toward Ukraine decreased by 8 percentage points since the beginning of the year (January 2017 – 34%, May 2017 – 26%). The amount of those who want closed borders between two states decreased in Ukraine (February – 47%, May – 43%) and increased in Russia (January – 33%, May – 35%).

The press release contains the results of a conjoint project of Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and Russian non-governmental research company “Levada-Center”.

On May 20 – 29. 2017 Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2040 respondents living in 108 settlements (PSU) in all oblasts of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic and is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed:

3.3% — for indexes close to 50%,

2.8% — for indexes close to 25%,

2.0% — for indexes close to 10%,

1.4% — for indexes close to 5%.

“Levada-center” conducted the poll with the sample representative of the population of Russia: 1601 people aged 18 and above, in a period 19-22 of May 2017.

During the study, the Ukrainians as before were asked “What is your general attitude to Russia now?”, the Russians – “What is your general attitude to Ukraine now?”.

The attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia remains to be better than the attitude of the population of Russia to Ukraine: the amount of positively minded Ukrainians grows (February 2017 – 39%, May 2017 – 44%). The situation in Russia is opposite – the amount of positively minded toward Ukraine decreased by 8 percentage points since the beginning of the year (January 2017 – 34%, May 2017 – 26%).
Compared to February 2017. the number of negatively minded to Russia Ukrainians decreased, in February it was 46%, in May – 37%. In Russia, the number of people with such attitude to Ukraine increased from 54% in January to 59% in May.
Compared to February 2017. the number of the Ukrainians who are positively minded to Russia increased in all regions except for the Eastern region (see Table 5 in the Addition): Western (was 20%, now 25%), Central (was 32%, now 39%), Southern (was 55%, now 68%). Regarding the Eastern region, the number of those who have a positive attitude towards Russia has decreased (was 68%, now – 48%), but the number of those for whom it is difficult to say doubled approximately (from 16% to 33%, that is for 17 percentage points). Perhaps this means that the positive attitude towards Russia in the Eastern region has not significantly decreased, but the respondents do not want to say that they are positive about Russia and choose the answer "difficult to say".
Compared to February 2017. the number of the Ukrainians who are negatively minded towards Russia significantly decreased in all regions except for the Eastern: Western region (it was 69%, now - 56%), Central region (it was 55%, now - 42%), Southern (it was 25%, now 19%). In the Eastern region, the number of negatively minded to Russia practically did not change (it was 16%, now - 19%, but this difference is insignificant).

Graph 1. Dynamics of the positive attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia and of the population of Russia to Ukraine (% of those who have very positive and mostly positive attitude)

The dynamics of answers to the question “What type of the relations between Ukraine and Russia would you prefer?”

Compared to February 2017. the number of those who want closed borders and customs with Russia decreased (it was 47%, now - 43%). On the contrary, the number of those who want friendly relations between two independent states with open borders without visas and customs has increased (it was 43%, now - 47%). Union of two states in one is preferred by 4% of the polled Ukrainians (in February it was 2%).
In Russia, the number of those who want closed borders and customs with Ukraine slightly increased compared with January 2017 (it was 33%, now – 35%), but the number of those who wished friendly relations with Ukraine decreased insignificantly (it was 53%, now - 50%). In the rest the situation has not changed, the union in one country, as in January, is the desired option for 9% of the Russians.

Graph 2. What type of the relations with Russia does the population of Ukraine prefer?*

* Line on the graph «Ukraine and Russia should be independent states” is a sum of the first two columns of Table 6, that is, the percentage of those who want the independence with closed borders and customs and of those who prefer independence without borders and customs (see tables below).

By regions:

The greatest number of those who believe that relations with Russia should be the same as with other states - with closed borders, visas and customs - are observed in the Western (65%) and Central (46%) regions, the least - in the Southern (21%). In the Eastern region, 30% of the respondents chose this option.
The largest number of those who consider Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states - with open borders, without visas and customs - are observed in the Southern (72%) and Eastern (56%) regions, the least - in the Western region (27%). In the Central region, 43% of the respondents chose this option.
The largest number of those who believe that Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state, is among the inhabitants of the Southern region (6%), slightly less of them are in the Eastern (4%) region, even less there are in the Central region (3%). The least of these answers are in the Western region (1%).

Addition 1.Formulation of the questions from the questionnaire

What type of the relations between Ukraine and Russia would you prefer? ONE ANSWER

Relations should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs	1
Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states - with no visa, no customs and with open borders	2
Ukraine and Russia should unite in one country	3
DIFFICULT TO SAY/ REFUSAL FROM ANSWERING	9

What is your general attitude toward Russia now?

Very positive	1	Mostly negative	3	DIFFICULT TO SAY	9
Mostly positive	2	Very negative	4

TABLES

Table 1. What is your general attitude toward Russia/Ukraine now?

IN UKRAINE TOWARD RUSSIA, %					IN RUSSIA TOWARD UKRAINE, %
Date	Very positive/ mostly positive	Mostly negative/very negative	DIFFICULT TO SAY	TOTAL	Date	Very positive/ mostly positive	Mostly negative/very negative	DIFFICULT TO SAY	TOTAL
Apr.08	88	7	5	100	Mar.08	55	33	12	100
Sep.08	88	9	3	100	Sep.08	38	53	10	100
Feb.09	91	5	4	100	Jan.09	29	62	10	100
May.09	93	4	3	100	May.09	33	56	11	100
Oct.09	92	6	3	100	Sep.09	46	44	10	100
Mar.10	90	6	4	100	Mar.10	59	29	12	100
Jun.10	92	6	3	100	Jul.10	70	22	9	100
Oct.10	93	4	3	100	Oct.10	67	21	12	100
Nov.11	80	13	7	100	Sep.11	68	23	9	100
Feb.12	85	9	6	100	Jan.12	64	25	12	100
Sep.12	83	11	6	100	Sep.12	74	17	10	100
Feb.13	85	8	7	100	Feb.13	69	21	9	100
May.13	81	10	9	100	May.13	72	18	9	100
Nov.13	82	10	8	100	Sep.13	69	22	8	100
Feb.14	78	13	9	100	Jan.14	66	26	9	100
May.14	52	38	10	100	May.14	35	49	17	100
Sep.14	48	41	11	100	Sep.14	32	55	13	100
Dec.14	37	48	16	100	Jan. 15	24	63	13	100
Feb.15	34	51	15	100	Mar.15	31	56	13	100
May.15	30	56	14	100	May.15	26	59	14	100
Sep.15	34	53	13	100	Sep.15	33	56	11	100
Feb.16	36	47	13	100	Feb.16	27	59	14	100
May.16	42	43	15	100	May.16	39	47	13	100
Sep.16	40	46	14	100	Sep.16	26	56	17	100
Dec.16	40	47	13	100	Dec.16	34	54	13	100
Feb.17	39	46	15	100	Jan.17	34	54	13	100
May.17	44	37	19	100	May.17	26	59	15	100

Table 2. What is your general attitude toward Russia now? Distribution by macro regions of Ukraine, %

	Ukraine in general, %	Western	Central	South	Eastern
Very positive	5.3	3.6	3.2	7.6	9.5
Mostly positive	38.4	21.1	35.7	60.9	38.6
Mostly negative	22.0	26.4	28.7	12.7	12.9
Very negative	15.1	29.5	13.5	6.5	5.7
DIFFICULT TO SAY	19.0	19	19	12	33
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100

Table 3. What type of the relations between Ukraine and Russia would you prefer?

	IN UKRAINE
Date	Relations should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs	Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states - with no visa, no customs and with open borders	Ukraine and Russia should unite in one country	Difficult to say	Total
Apr.08	10	67	20	3	100
Sep.08	17	66	16	2	100
Feb.09	8	68	23	1	100
May.09	10	65	23	2	100
Oct.09	11	67	19	3	100
Mar.10	11	67	19	3	100
Jun.10	12	70	16	2	100
Oct.10	10	67	20	2	100
Nov.11	13	67	16	1	100
Feb.12	13	69	16	2	100
Sep.12	11	72	14	3	100
Feb.13	13	68	16	3	100
May.13	11	69	14	5	100
Nov.13	12	73	9	6	100
Feb.14	15	68	12	5	100
May.14	32	54	8	5	100
Sep.14	45	44	5	6	100
Dec.14	50	42	3	5	100
Feb. 15	48	43	4	6	100
May.15	45	46	2	7	100
Sep.15	46	45	2	7	100
Feb.16	42	43	4	11	100
May.16	44	44	3	9	100
Sep.16	49	43	3	6	100
Dec.16	45	46	3	7	100
Feb.17	47	43	2	7	100
May.17	43	47	4	6	100

	IN RUSSIA
Date	Relations should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs	Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states - with no visa, no customs and with open borders	Ukraine and Russia should unite in one country	Difficult to say	Total
Mar.08	19	56	19	6	100
Sep.08	24	52	13	11	100
Jan.09	29	51	12	8	100
Jun. 09	25	55	14	6	100
Sep. 09	25	55	13	7	100
Jan. 10	25	55	14	6	100
May. 10	17	64	13	6	100
Sep. 10	16	60	18	6	100
Sep.11	16	63	14	6	100
Jan.12	16	61	16	8	100
Sep.12	14	60	20	6	100
Feb.13	13	64	18	6	100
May.13	19	58	15	8	100
Sep.13	23	55	16	6	100
Jan.14	19	59	16	6	100
May.14	28	54	12	6	100
Sep.14	26	62	7	5	100
Jan. 15	32	53	7	8	100
May.15	30	54	10	6	100
Sep.15	25	59	8	7	100
Feb.16	32	52	11	5	100
May.16	36	53	7	4	100
Sep.16	39	48	8	6	100
Dec.16	33	53	9	5	100
Jan.17	33	53	9	5	100
May.17	35	50	9	5	100

Western macroregion – Volynska, Zakarpatska, Ivano-Frankivska, Lvivska, Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Khmelnytska, Chernivets`ka oblasts; Central macroregion – Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, Kirovohradska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Chernihivska oblasts; South macroregion – Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizka, Mykolaivska, Odeska, Khersonska oblasts; Eastern macroregion – Kharkivska, Donetska, Luhanska oblasts (only the regions controlled by Ukraine).

Table 4. What is your general attitude toward Russia now? Comparison of distribution by macro regions of Ukraine in February and May 2017.%

2017		Very positive	Mostly positive	Mostly negative	Very negative	DIFFICULT TO SAY	Total
Ukraine	February	7.6	31.5	24.8	21.2	14.8	100.0
Ukraine	May	5.3	38.4	22.0	15.0	19.3	100.0
Western	February	2.5	17.1	28.2	40.9	11.3	100.0
Western	May	3.6	21.1	26.4	29.5	19.5	100.0
Central	February	3.0	29.0	33.9	20.8	13.4	100.0
Central	May	3.2	35.7	28.7	13.5	19.0	100.0
Southern	February	16.5	38.6	16.3	8.6	20.0	100.0
Southern	May	7.6	60.9	12.7	6.5	12.3	100.0
Eastern	February	13.6	54.7	9.8	5.7	16.2	100.0
Eastern	May	9.5	38.6	12.9	5.7	33.3	100.0

Table 5. What type of the relations between Ukraine and Russia would you prefer? Distribution by regions, May 2017. %

	4 Macroregions
	Western	Central	Southern	Eastern
Relations between Ukraine and Russia should be the same as with other countries	65	46	21	30
Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states	27	43	71	56
Ukraine and Russia should unite in one country	1	3	6	4
DIFFICULT TO SAY	6	5	0	0
REFUSAL FROM ANSWERING	1	3	2	10
TOTAL	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0