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Dynamics of the attitude of the population of Ukraine to sociological surveys, December 2019

Прес-реліз підготував Володимир Паніотто, генеральний директор КМІС. 

On December 1-12, 2019, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an All-Ukrainian public opinion poll. The survey was conducted in 110 settlements (PSUs) in all regions of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea), 2043 people were personally interviewed. The sample was stochastic and is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above. In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, polls were conducted only in the territories controlled by Ukraine.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% - for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% - for indicators close to 5%.

 

KIIS inestigates the population's attitude to sociological polls once a year, each December. A poll of December 2019 found that 42% of respondents trusted sociological organizations that have been operating for a long time already, 21% percent do not trust, and others do not have a clear opinion about this. The level of confidence in opinion polls has hardly changed over the last year (in 2018 it was 43% and in 2019 - 42%). The balance of trust and mistrust (the percentage of those who trust, minus the percentage of those who do not trust) is + 21%, a year ago it equaled +23% (a small statistically insignificant decrease).

 

In particular, the survey showed that:

  • Over the past 17 years, the level of trust in the results of sociological surveys conducted by organizations that have been working and publishing the results of their research for a while, at first, increased significantly (from 36% in 2002 to 47% in 2004), then remained more or less stable with some fluctuations (49%, +/- 2%) until 2017, and finally decreased to 43% in 2018 among the population of Ukraine.

 

Graph 1. Dynamics of the level of trust and mistrust in sociological organizations from 2002 to 2019, %

 

 

 

  • The balance of trust and distrust in sociological centers (percentage of those who trust, minus the percentage of those who do not trust) increased from +31% in November 2013 up to +39% in 2014 and +40% in 2015 (see graph 2). Over the last 2 years, the balance has dropped from +36% in 2017 down to +23% in 2018 and +21% in 2019.

 

Graph 2. Balance of trust and mistrust in sociological centers (percentage of those who trust, minus the percentage of those who do not trust) in 2002-2019

 

 
    • The level of trust in sociological surveys is somewhat bigger among women than among men (45% vs. 39%).
    • There is practically no difference in confidence in sociological research by type of settlement, age, and education.

     

    Commentary of Volodymyr Paniotto, CEO of KIIS,  NaUKMA professor:

     The 2019 election campaign was surprisingly successful for the sociologists. Despite the lack of up-to-date statistical data for sample planning (it has been about 20 years since the last census was conducted, the territory available for the survey has changed and the migration rate has increased tremendously as a result of the war in the East), both the pre-election polls and exit polls of professional sociological companies were very accurate. Take a look at the comparison of surveys` data and election results for the 1st round (https://kiis.com/en/?lang=en&cat=reports&id=849&page=1), and in the second round, the survey results were even more precise. I expected that after such successful work, the level of trust in sociological research would increase. But the results of the poll were disappointing, the level of trust remained virtually unchanged and even slightly decreased.

     

    What is it related to? Most likely, this is due to the widespread use of dirty technologies in the election campaign, the use of fake data, the emergence of pseudosocial companies, and the unfair criticism of professional companies by those who consider the data to be unhelpful to their political power. More than 20 parties and nearly 40 presidential candidates have participated in the elections, and only those who ranked first in the ratings were satisfied with the results, while other political forces tried to cast doubt on sociological data. It was found out that dirty political technologies had influenced public sentiment more than the real facts.

    At the same time, even after some decrease in trust in sociological research, the number of those who trust is twice higher than the number of those who do not trust.


    Addition

     

    Do you trust the results of sociological surveys conducted by organizations that have been working and publishing the results of researches for a long time already? % of respondents

     

    By years:

     

      2002 2004 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
    Yes 36 47 45 51 46 48 50 50 47 43 42
    Difficult to say 32 37 35 34 37 40 36 35 41 35 36
    No 29 13 14 13 15 9 10 14 11 20 21
    Denial from answering 3 3 6 2 2 3 4 2 1 3 1
    Balance of trust and mistrust (percentage of those who trust, minus the percentage of those who do not trust) 7 34 31 38 31 39 40   
    36
      
    36
     
    23
      
    23

     

     


17.2.2020
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