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Electoral intentions of voters in the district 214 (the city of Kiev)

KIIS conducted two public opinion polls in the district 214 during periods of August 18–26 and September 23–30, 2012, which cover part of the Dnipro district of Kyiv. Each time sample consisted of 1,000 respondents aged 18 years and older, who were interviewed by the method of computerized telephone interviews (CATI) twice. There was developed two-stage sampling for each wave of the survey. The first stage was to randomly choose telephone number of household by means of RDD; the second stage was to choose respondents according to the quota task.

Statistical sampling error (with probability 0.95, excluding design-effect) does not exceed
3.2% in figures close to 50%,
2,8% — figures close to 25%,
2,1% — figures close to 10%,
1,4% — figures close to 5%.

If parliamentary elections were held in late September, the results of the survey show that residents who are covered by the district 214 in Kiev, would support Oles Dovgiy with his 21.3% and Viktor Chumak with his 14.9%.

The next three places would be taken by Yuri Hanushchak — 6.8%, Anatoly Khmel — 3.3% and Mykola Martynov — 2.8%;

Two more candidates should have got at least one percent of supporters: Oksana Opymah — 1.4% and Oleg Boyko — 1.2%.

In comparison with mid-August results (when the first survey was conducted) late September data showed the biggest increase in the number of supporters of V. Chumak — from 7.3% to 14.9% (by 7.6%), and there is observed a small increase of the number of adherents of O. Dovgiy — from 18, 3% to 21.3%.

Support of other candidates did not statistically significantly changed during this period (mid-August to late September).

The number of those who are undecided yet about their electoral preferences has statistically significantly decreased during the same period: from 37,2% to 31,1%.


Application

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by the majority system were held next Sunday, would you participate in voting? If "yes": What would be your choice if the following candidates participated in the election?*

  % of all respondents % of those who did not deny their participation in the elections
August 18-26 September 23-30 August 18-26 September 23-30
Dovgiy, Oles — self-nominated 18,3 21,3 23,5 25,4
Chumak, Viktor — «UDAR» headed by V. Klychko 7,3 14,9 9,4 17,8
Ganuschak, Iuriy — UNC «Batkivschyna» 6,8 6,8 8,7 8,1
Khmel, Anatoliy — Party of Regions 2,4 3,3 3,0 4,0
Martynov, Mykola — Communist Party of Ukraine 2,1 2,8 2,6 3,3
Opymakh, Oksana — Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists 1,0 1,4 1,3 1,7
Boiko, Oleg — Radical Party headed by O. Liashko 1,4 1,2 1,8 1,5
Smikhun, Valentyn — self-nominated 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,2
Kochkina, Olena — self-nominated 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1
Ratushniy, Mykola — «United Lefts and villagers» 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,1
Samoilenko, Anna — «Socialistic Ukraine» 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1
Stoliarenko, Igor — self-nominated 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,1
Sheliagov, Anatoliy — self-nominated 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,1
Iurchenko, Oleksandr — self-nominated 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,1
Vasylchuk, Vadym — self-nominated 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,0
Vlasko, Olena — self-nominated 0,2 0,0 0,3 0,0
Gavrylenko, Oleksandr — self-nominated 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,0
Golubka, Stepan — self-nominated 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Senchenko, Sergii — self-nominated 0,4 0,0 0,5 0,0
Chobit, Dmytro — self-nominated 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,0
Chubko, Oksana — self-nominated 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Shvachka, Natalia — self-nominated 0,2 0,0 0,3 0,0
Difficult to say/Undecided yet 37,2 31,1 47,9 37,2
I will not vote 22,3 16,4 --- ---
TOTAL 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

* The results are organized according to the candidates’ rankings in the second wave of the survey


8.10.2012
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