Analysis prepared by NDI

With the one-year anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked and illegal full-scale war against Ukraine looming this week, Russia continues to launch devastating attacks on Ukrainian territories. Since October, these attacks have focused on critical infrastructure and civilian targets in an ongoing effort to occupy Ukrainian territory and obliterate the very idea of an independent Ukrainian state. 

Recent public opinion research carried out by the National Democratic Institute (NDI), however, shows that Russia’s brutal attacks have not succeeded in breaking the spirit of Ukrainians or shaking their faith in Ukraine’s ultimate victory. NDI conducted its third wave of wartime polling in the first half of January 2023, and the findings clearly illustrate not only the heart-wrenching cost of the war for everyday Ukrainians, but also their indomitable resilience and the utter failure of Russia’s strategy to divide the country and polarize Ukrainian society.

Here are six things that Russia got wrong about Ukraine:

Wrong: Personal hardship will convince Ukrainians to accept Russian domination. 

There is no denying that the full-scale war is taking an enormous toll on lives and livelihoods in Ukraine. Following months of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s civilian energy grid, 92 percent of respondents report having constant, frequent or occasional electricity outages at home. An increasing number of people reported deteriorating physical and mental health, and 37 percent of Ukrainians say they have lost a friend or a family member to the war. 

While these numbers are devastating, NDI’s research shows that Ukrainians remain positive - 89 percent of respondents are optimistic about Ukraine’s future, and the main reason cited for this optimism is Ukraine’s ultimate victory. The number of optimistic Ukrainians has remained strong despite the hardship experienced by everyday Ukrainians over the past year. In fact, Ukrainian optimism has not diminished in the face of prolonged war and hardship. 

Wrong: Ukrainians will recognize Russia’s role and value in determining Ukraine’s future.

Since the beginning of full-scale war, the number of  Ukrainians who thought Russia could determine Ukraine’s future has dropped significantly, from 49 percent directly before the war to 18 percent in January 2023. In contrast, Ukrainians recognize the important role that Western support is playing in Ukrainian victory, and Ukrainians consistently note that “international support” is among the key reasons for their continuing optimism. While Ukrainians are certain that they themselves will determine their country’s future, they are also overwhelmingly positive in their assessment of the influence Ukraine’s Western allies have on determining Ukraine’s future with 72 percent positive assessment of the United States; 79 percent of the United Kingdom; and 73 and 73 percent of the European Union and Canada, respectively. Clearly, the future of Ukraine will be determined by Ukrainians.  

Wrong: Ukraine does not have its own national identity. 

Ukrainians have consistently chosen their own path, often directly opposite to everything that Russia currently represents. Ukrainians have a clear idea of what the future should look like, including Ukraine’s future as a fully functioning democracy. Moreover, Ukrainians can clearly define what democracy means to them, including freedom of speech, equal justice for all, and free and fair elections. 

While Russia’s government is becoming more authoritarian and launching new attacks on sexual and gender minorities, Ukraine is consolidating around its democratic, tolerant, and pluralistic future. Support for gender equality has only strengthened since the full-scale war began, with 74 percent of Ukrainians wanting to see a better balance of men and women in political life. Moreover, the majority of Ukrainians support the same rights for LGBT+ people, including civil partnerships. Fundamentally, Ukrainians have chosen their own path and their own values, independent of those historically imposed by Russia. 

Wrong: Ukrainians’ commitment to Euro-Atlantic integration is weak, especially in regions closer to Russia. 

One of the main goals of Russian disinformation and propaganda has been to divide Ukraine and undermine its western aspirations while trying to convince Ukrainians that the west will abandon Ukraine and suspend its support. This strategy has backfired - support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration skyrocketed since the beginning of full-scale war, with 92 percent supporting Ukraine’s EU membership and 86 percent supporting NATO membership. What used to be one of the most divisive topics in Ukraine is now equally supported across the country, including in the East and South. In fact, Ukrainians are more committed to EU and NATO membership than ever.

Wrong: Increased missile attacks will erode Ukrainian resistance and force territorial concessions.

Russia is trying to wear down Ukrainians’ resilience with prolonged war and regular missile attacks, but NDI research shows that those techniques have not been effective. Across demographic and geographic groups, the only “acceptable” outcome of the war continues to be the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. All other scenarios are rejected by the majority of respondents. Moreover, Ukrainian’s willingness to negotiate with Russia has dropped significantly since the start of full-scale war. In May 2022, 59 percent supported negotiations. That number dropped to 44 percent in August 2022 and 29 percent in the most recent polling. As the war drags on and evidence of Russian war crimes in recently liberated territories becomes known, the Ukrainian appetite for negotiation wanes. Ukrainians are overwhelmingly committed to victory and liberation of annexed and occupied territories.

Wrong: Political differences among leaders will undermine Ukraine’s unity.

Political life in Ukraine is dominated by discussions of Ukrainian victory, war efforts and humanitarian relief, which is also reflected in attitudes toward Ukraine’s political leadership. The four most popular Ukrainian political figures are, respectively, the President of Ukraine (Volodymyr Zelenskyy), the head of the armed forces (Valerii Zaluzhnyi), the most visible civic leader (Serhii Prytula), and the mayor of the capital city (Vitalii Klychko). Hailing from different parties and backgrounds, these leaders have shown remarkable unity and cooperation in unwavering opposition to Russian aggression. Political leaders have remained united throughout the war and will not be subverted.

The survey was designed and deployed by the National Democratic Institute in Ukraine. The fieldwork was conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology during January 4 - 16, 2023, via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) method with 2,508 completed interviews. The survey is representative only of the adult population who use mobile phones with Ukrainian numbers. Areas that were outside the control of the Ukrainian government before February 24, 2022, were excluded. The average margin of error for the national sample is +/- 2.2%. The research is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Sweden, UK Aid and Global Affairs Canada.

The full report in English can be downloaded here.