During September 15-22, 2022 the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 2,000 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine (within the boundaries controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022). The sample did not include residents of territories that were not temporarily controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022 (AR of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. In particular, if back in May, among all the respondents we interviewed, 2.5-4% lived in the territories occupied after February 24 (and this corresponded to the percentage of those who live there, because the generation of telephone numbers was random), now, due to the occupiers turning off the telephone connection we managed to interview fewer respondents living in occupied settlements, in particular, their number is 0.3%. It is important to note that although the views of the respondents who lived in the occupation were somewhat different, the general tendencies were quite similar. That is, the impossibility of interviewing such respondents does not significantly affect the quality of the results. There are other factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions (see Annex 2).

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of public attitudes.

Right now, we are all witnessing how the aggressor state, Russia, is trying to hold pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine and announce its results as "the real moods of the population." The results of the pseudo-referendum will be used to legitimize the occupation and promote the appropriate narrative for various audiences (including among Ukraine's allies in the West).

There are many arguments that testify to the worthlessness of these pseudo-referendums: according to the legislation of Ukraine, oblasts do not have the right to independently decide on the issue of secession from Ukraine through referendums; half or even the majority of the population left these territories and referendums do not reflect the opinion of the entire population of the oblast; repression of supporters of Ukraine and control of armed people hinder the free expression of people's will, etc. But let's put the question this way – and how people would have voted if the referendum had been conducted correctly and honestly?

KIIS participated in the forecasting of many elections and referendums held in Ukraine, and received quite accurate results (in particular, in the 2019 presidential elections, the deviation of the forecast from the election results was less than 3%, see https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=849&page=7&y=2019). We cannot conduct a full-fledged survey in the occupied territories now, but we can see what the public moods of the residents of the South and East was in the period 2014-2022 before the full-scale invasion.

From 19 to 22 September in Delmenhorst (Germany) a conference "The future of social research in and on Russia and Ukraine" took place. Here the program of the conference. Vladimir Paniotto, General Director of KIIS, acted as a keynote speaker. We publish a fragment of the presentation of his report - only the methodological part, devoted to the methodology of the survey during the war (see).

From September 7 to 13, 2022, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 2,000 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine (within the boundaries controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022). The sample did not include residents of territories that were not temporarily controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022 (AR of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. In particular, if back in May, among all the respondents we interviewed, 2.5-4% lived in the territories occupied after February 24 (and this corresponded to the percentage of those who live there, because the generation of telephone numbers was random), now, due to the occupiers turning off the telephone connection we managed to interview fewer respondents living in occupied settlements, in particular, their number is 0.3%. It is important to note that although the views of the respondents who lived in the occupation were somewhat different, the general tendencies were quite similar. That is, the impossibility of interviewing such respondents does not significantly affect the quality of the results. There are other factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions (see Annex 2).

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of public attitudes.

The survey was designed and deployed by the National Democratic Institute in Ukraine. The fieldwork was conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology during August 2 - 9, 2022, via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) method with 2,510 completed interviews. The survey is representative only of the adult population currently residing in Ukraine who use mobile phones with Ukrainian numbers. Areas that were outside the control of the Ukrainian government before February 24, 2022, were excluded. The average margin of error for the national sample is +/- 2.2%. The research is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Sweden and Global Affairs Canada.