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Public perception of integration projects

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a nationwide opinion poll during the period of February 10-19, 2012. 2029 respondents were interviewed; the survey covered all regions of Ukraine, Crimea and Kyiv; sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older.

 

Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and a design-effect 1.5) does not exceed 3.3% for index close to 50%, 2,8% - index close to 25%, 2,0% - index close to 10%, 1 4% - index close to 5%.

 

Attitude of Ukrainian population towards Ukraine's accession to the EU and the Union of Russia and Belarus is ambivalent. In particular:

 

# In the event of a referendum on Ukraine's accession to the EU, there are more Ukrainians who are ready to vote "for" than "against" (40% vs. 33%). Supporters of EU membership dominate in the Western and Central regions (67% vs. 13% and 46% vs. 26%); and the ones who are against the accession live in the Southern and Eastern regions (45% vs. 22% and 50% vs. 24%).

 

# In the event of a referendum on Ukraine's accession to the Union of Russia and Belarus, more than half of Ukrainians are ready to support this idea (55%; "against-minded" make up only 27%). Supporters of the idea to join a union dominated in the Eastern, Southern and Central regions (77% vs. 11%, 72% vs. 9% and 48% vs. 31%); and opponents dominate in the Western region (57% vs. 24%).

 

# 39% of Ukrainians support the statement that "the main task of Ukraine's foreign policy is to create opportunities for EU membership"; while 30% of population disagree with the above.

 

# However, 48% of respondents agree with the statement that "the future of Ukraine is in alliance with Russia and Belarus"; while 26% of Ukrainians disagree with the above.

 

# In Ukraine in general the number of those who believe that our nation would be better to live in the union with Russia and Belarus is bigger than number of those who believe that it would be better to become a part of the European Union (44% vs. 29%).

 

# In the Western region [1] 62% of respondents believe that Ukrainians would live better within the EU, and 13% - within the union with Russia and Belarus. In the Central Region the ratio of hopes for a better life in the European Union or in the union with Russia and Belarus is almost parity (33% vs. 35%). In the Southern and Eastern regions hope for a better life in the union with Russia and Belarus dominates (62% vs. 13% and 66% vs. 10%, respectively).

 

# In all age groups the relative majority of respondents believes that the Union of Russia and Belarus will be better for Ukraine than accession into the European Union; however, the younger age group is, the more it supports the idea of joining the European Union and the fewer it desires to unite with Russia and Belarus. 

 

V. Paniotto (General Manager, KIIS) and V. Khmelko (the President, KIIS) comment the data:

 

Now the situation with the attitude of the population towards the EU and the Union of Russia and Belarus is almost the same that we had in December of last year (see V. Paniotto, V. Khmelko "Do Ukrainians want to join the European Union?", Ukrainska Pravda, December 14th, 2011, http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2011/12/14/6837097/). According to a February survey there are about 27% of population who support the idea of joining the EU, and about 41% of those who prefer to get into the Union of Russia and Belarus; and 30% of those who do not have any clear orientations and will take one or another side depending on the specific variants to choose of. In particular, the choice of joining the EU depends on whether or not it affects our relationships with Russia.  

 

[1] Western region: eight westernmost regions of Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Transcarpathian and Chernivtsi (22% of voters);

Central region: Zhitomir, Vinnitsa, Kirovograd, Cherkassy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv city and Kyiv region (30% of voters);

Southern region: Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya Oblast and Crimea (26% of voters);

Eastern region: Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk region (22% of voters).


20.3.2012
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