The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During February 17-28, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which a question about who Ukrainians consider the leader of the opposition was added at the request of the public organization Center for Strategic Communications "Forum". Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviews(CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 2,008 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine, and the survey was not conducted with citizens who went abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. In particular, if in May 2022, among all the respondents we interviewed, 2.5-4% lived in the territories occupied after February 24 (and this corresponded to the percentage of those who live there, because the generation of telephone numbers was random), now due to the occupiers turning off the telephone connection, not a single respondent who currently lives in occupied settlements was included in the sample (along with this, out of a total of 1,052 respondents, 33 respondents lived in a settlement that is currently occupied until February 24, 2022). It is important to note that although the views of the respondents who lived in the occupation were somewhat different, the general trends were quite similar. That is, the impossibility of interviewing such respondents does not significantly affect the quality of the results. There are other factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions, which were cited by KIIS earlier.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

During the survey, respondents were asked who they consider to be the leader of the opposition from the list of public figures. A total of six names were read to the respondents and we asked them to choose one person whom the respondents consider to be the leader of the political opposition in the country (or the respondent could name his or her own version). It is important to note right away that this question is not identical to the electoral rating or level of trust. For example, Ukrainians may consider someone to be the leader of the opposition, but not trust him or vote for him or her. In addition, someone can be considered the leader of the opposition, but at the same time support the current government.

As can be seen in the graph 1, relatively the largest number of respondents – 26% among all respondents – consider P. Poroshenko to be the leader of the opposition. S. Prytula is in conditional second place with a result of 17%.

They are followed by D. Razumkov (7%), Yu. Tymoshenko (5%), O. Arestovych (2%), Yu. Boiko (2%). In addition, 4% of respondents named their option, of which 3% answered that in their opinion the leader of the opposition is V. Zaluzhnyi.

The rest of the respondents (a third of those surveyed) could not determine who is the leader of the opposition or believe that there is no political opposition in Ukraine at all.

Graph 1. In your opinion, which of these politicians is the leader of the political opposition? (the respondent could choose only one answer)

*  V. Zaluzhnyi was not among the options that were read to the respondents. However, some respondents chose the "another" option and named V. Zaluzhnyi.

In the table below, the data are given in the regional dimension. In all regions, relatively the largest number of respondents called P. Poroshenko the leader of the opposition, and S. Prytula came second everywhere.  

Table 1. Perception of factors of Ukraine's success in the war in the regional dimension

* V. Zaluzhnyi was not among the options that were read to the respondents. However, some respondents chose the "another" option and named V. Zaluzhnyi.

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

To analyze the perception of the political opposition, it is also necessary to take into account the level of trust in the relevant actors. Yes, earlier in February 2024, we conducted a survey where a question was asked about trust in certain public figures, and therefore these results should be kept in mind (they, in particular, demonstrate changes in public opinion in dynamics)[1].

At the same time, it is important to remind that 93% of Ukrainians want to see Ukraine as a fully functioning democracy, and 70% believe that the authorities should be criticized for possible wrong decisions and actions. Therefore, the functioning of the political opposition is important for the development of Ukraine, and we see that currently most Ukrainians believe that there is an opposition in Ukraine and have their own opinion on who is its leader.

Along with this, in February 2024 we asked about the factors of Ukraine's success in the war with the Russian aggressor, and many Ukrainians talk about preserving social unity (both along the government-society line and the government-opposition line). Therefore, although opposition activity is important, it should be kept within a constructive framework.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

In your opinion, which of these politicians is the leader of the political opposition? DIFFERENT ORDER OF READING