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Are the things in Ukraine going in the right direction now?

Oleksiy Khmelko

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own nationwide opinion poll from April 29 to May 11, 2014. The random sample of 2,022 respondents surveyed in 110 settlements all over Ukraine (excluding Crimea) using face-to-face interviewing method represents the Ukrainian population aged over 18 years.

Statistical sampling error (with probability 0.95, design effect 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for figures close to 50%, 2,8% - figures close to 25%, 2,0% - figures close to10%,1.4%-figures close to 5%

In early May this year the residents of unoccupied territory of Ukraine believed that things in Ukraine are going -

• in the right direction - 20%

• in the wrong direction - 60%

• could not give an answer - 20%.

 

Half a year ago, in the middle of November, among residents of unoccupied territory of Ukraine believed that things in Ukraine go -

• in the right direction - 14%

• in the wrong direction - 68%

• could not give an answer - 18%.

So the number of those who think that things in Ukraine going in the right direction increased by 50% in comparison with late November last year before the protests.

 

In the Western region those who believe that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction, has more than tripled - from 12% in November to 38% in May. Accordingly, the share of those who think that things in Ukraine are going in the wrong direction, decreased from 71% to 39% in the Western region.

In the East, in contrary the share of those who believe that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction declined more than twice - from 10% to 4%. The share of those who think that things in Ukraine are going in the wrong direction, increased from 71% in November 2013 to 86% in May 2014.
APPENDIX

The question about how things in Ukraine are going now was as follows:

Do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

Table 1. Distribution of answers (% of the adult population of Ukraine aged over 18 years)

  Ukraine in total
With AR Crimea Without AR      Crimea Without AR Crimea
November 2013* May 2014
In the right direction 13,7 13,7 20,3
In the wrong direction 68,7 68,5 59,7
I DO NOT KNOW / DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 17,6 17,7 20,0
TOTAL 100,0 100,0 100,0

* During November 9-20, 2013 Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own poll. 2011 respondents residing in all regions of Ukraine (including the city of Kyiv) and Crimea were interviewed, the random sample represents the Ukrainian population aged over18 years.

Table 2. Regional distribution (% of the adult population of Ukraine without AR Crimea)

Macro-regions*:   In the right direction In the wrong direction I DO NOT KNOW / HARD TO SAY
Western November 2013 12,3 70,8 16,9
May 2014 37,8 38,8 23,4
Difference 25,5 -31,9 6,5
Central November 2013 17,7 65,8 16,5
May 2014 23,4 52,3 24,3
Difference 5,7 -13,5 7,8
South November 2013 13,3 67,0 19,7
May 2014 13,8 66,9 19,3
Difference 0,5 -0,1 -0,4
Eastern November 2013 10,1 71,3 18,6
May 2014 3,7 85,8 10,5
Difference -6,4 14,5 -8,1

* Western Region - eight of the most western regions: Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Zakarpatta and Chernivtsi oblasts (24% of voters); Central Region - Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv oblasts and Kyiv city (32% of voters); Southern Region - Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts (23% of voters); Eastern Region - Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (22% of voters).


13.6.2014
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