KYIV
INTERNATIONAL
INSTITUTE of
SOCIOLOGY
sociological and
marketing
research
tel. 537-3376
office@kiis.com.ua

ESC or click to close

National Exit-Poll 2014: final results

On May 25, 2014, on the day of Presidential elections in Ukraine, the Consortium consisting of Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and Olexander Razumkov Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Studies, conducted the National Exit-Poll’ 2014.

Exponential population of the exit poll: voters who voted at the polling stations at the territory of Ukraine (except for the special polling stations – hospitals, prisons, military units, abroad electoral constituencies). The sampling is representative for Ukraine as a whole and its four regions (West, Center, East, and South). The sampling is two-level cluster: at the first level the number of polling stations with equal contingency are chosen proportionally to the number of polling stations in the region; at the second level the systematic (step by step) selection of voters is conducted at the polling station. The permanent step of selection was used during the day of elections.

The number of respondents is 17 217 voters at 351 polling stations. The method of “secret voting”, when the respondent was marking his choice in the questionnaire and dropped the questionnaire into the ballot box himself. The level of reach is 77%.

Project management, its financial and media management was conducted by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation. Scientific project management, sampling development and survey coordination were carried out by KIIS. The polling at the exits from polling stations was conducted by KIIS and Razumkov Center.

National exit poll became possible due to the financial support of international donors: International Renaissance Foundation, MATRA program of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine, National Endowment for Democracy (USA), PACT, UNITER project, European Union. 

 

Table 1. National Exit-poll’ 2014 and elections results published by the

Central Elections Committee data comparison

Candidates Elections Results National Exit-poll’ 2014, as of18:00 National Exit-poll’ 2014, as of20:00 Final results (received by mail)
Ratings Difference Ratings Difference Ratings Difference
POROSHENKO Petro Oleksiyovytch 54.7 55.9 -1.2 55.7 -1.0 55.9 -1.2
TYMOSHENKO Yulia Volodymyrivna 12.8 12.9 -0.1 12.8 0.0 12.5 0.3
LYASHKO Oleg Valeriyovytch 8.3 8.0 0.3 8.1 0.2 8.0 0.3
GRITSENKO Anatoliy Stepanovytch 5.5 6.3 -0.8 6.3 -0.8 6.3 -0.8
TIGIPKO Sergiy Leonidovytch 5.2 4.7 0.5 4.8 0.4 4.8 0.4
DOBKIN Mykhailo Markovytch 3.0 2.1 0.9 2.1 0.9 2.2 0.9
RABINOVYTCH Vadym Zinoviyovytch 2.3 1.9 0.4 2.0 0.3 2.0 0.3
BOGOMOLETS Olga Vadymivna 1.9 2.0 -0.1 2.0 -0.1 2.0 -0.1
SYMONENKO Petro Mykolayovytch 1.5 1.1 0.4 1.1 0.4 1.2 0.3
TYAGNYBOK Oleg Yaroslavovytch 1.2 1.3 -0.1 1.3 -0.1 1.3 -0.2
YAROSH Dmytro Anatoliyovytch 0.7 0.9 -0.2 1.0 -0.3 1.0 -0.3
GRYNENKO Andriy Valeriyovytch 0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.0
KONOVALIUK Valeriy Illich 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1
BOYKO Yuriy Anatoliyovytch 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.1
MALOMUZH Mykola Grygorovytch 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
KUZMIN Renat Raveliyovytch 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
KUIBIDA Vasyl Stepanovytch 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
TSUSHKO Vasyl Petrovytch 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
KLYMENKO Olexander Ivanovytch 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
SARANOV Volodymyr Georgiyovytch 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0
SHKIRYAK Zoryan Nestorovytch 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
CROSSED EVERYONE OUT, CROSSED THE WHOLE LIST or SPOILED THE BALLOT 1.3 1.4 -0.1 1.4 -0.1 1.4 -0.1

 

The table shows the data obtained on Election Day to 6 p.m. (published immediately after the election in 8 p.m.) and to 8 p.m. (were released on 11 p.m.). These data were made by telephone. The last column of the final data, we received a few days later in the mail.

Themaximumdifferenceofexit-pollresultsannouncedat 20:00 fromelectionsresultsdoesnotexceed 1.2%, andthefinalverifieddata differ from elections results for not more than 0.9%.


Table 2. Presidentialcandidatesratingsamongmenandwomen

  Men Women
POROSHENKO Petro Oleksiyovytch 56.5 56.0
TYMOSHENKO Yulia Volodymyrivna 10.9 13.8
LYASHKO Oleg Valeriyovytch 8.6 7.8
GRITSENKO Anatoliy Stepanovytch 7.1 5.8
TIGIPKO Sergiy Leonidovytch 4.4 4.9
DOBKIN Mykhailo Markovytch 1.9 2.4
BOGOMOLETS Olga Vadymivna 1.7 2.3
RABINOVYTCH Vadym Zinoviyovytch 2.0 1.8
TYAGNYBOK Oleg Yaroslavovytch 1.5 1.2
SYMONENKO Petro Mykolayovytch 1.3 1.0
YAROSH Dmytro Anatoliyovytch 1.3 0.7
GRYNENKO Andriy Valeriyovytch 0.4 0.3
KONOVALIUK Valeriy Illich 0.3 0.3
BOYKO Yuriy Anatoliyovytch 0.2 0.3
MALOMUZH Mykola Grygorovytch 0.2 0.1
KUZMIN Renat Raveliyovytch 0.1 0.1
TSUSHKO Vasyl Petrovytch 0.1 0.0
KLYMENKO Olexander Ivanovytch 0.1 0.0
SARANOV Volodymyr Georgiyovytch 0.0 0.0
KUIBIDA Vasyl Stepanovytch 0.0 0.0
SHKIRYAK Zoryan Nestorovytch 0.0 0.0
CROSSED EVERYONE OUT, CROSSED THE WHOLE LIST or SPOILED THE BALLOT 1.4 1.2

 

Peculiarities of candidates’ voters

Gender

Men and women equally voted for Petro Poroshenko.

More women than men (13.8% and 10.9%) voted for Yulia Tymoshenko.

More men than women (7.1% – men, 5.8% - women) voted for AnatolyGritsenko.

There were no significant gender differences while voting for Oleg Lyashko and Sergey Tigipko


Table 3. Presidentialcandidatesratingsamong age groups

  18–29 years old 30–39 years old 40–49 years old 50–59 years old 60 years old and older
POROSHENKO Petro Oleksiyovytch 51.2 54.7 56.8 57.5 59.1
TYMOSHENKO Yulia Volodymyrivna 9.6 11.4 11.9 14.0 14.5
LYASHKO Oleg Valeriyovytch 15.6 9.9 7.2 5.5 4.8
GRITSENKO Anatoliy Stepanovytch 5.6 6.0 7.7 6.8 5.7
TIGIPKO Sergiy Leonidovytch 4.7 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.3
DOBKIN Mykhailo Markovytch 2.6 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5
BOGOMOLETS Olga Vadymivna 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.4
RABINOVYTCH Vadym Zinoviyovytch 1.7 2.4 1.6 2.4 1.4
TYAGNYBOK Oleg Yaroslavovytch 1.1 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.1
SYMONENKO Petro Mykolayovytch 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 2.6
YAROSH Dmytro Anatoliyovytch 2.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.2
GRYNENKO Andriy Valeriyovytch 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4
KONOVALIUK Valeriy Illich 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
BOYKO Yuriy Anatoliyovytch 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3
MALOMUZH Mykola Grygorovytch 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
KUZMIN Renat Raveliyovytch 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
TSUSHKO Vasyl Petrovytch 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
KLYMENKO Olexander Ivanovytch 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
SARANOV Volodymyr Georgiyovytch 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
KUIBIDA Vasyl Stepanovytch 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
SHKIRYAK Zoryan Nestorovytch 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CROSSED EVERYONE OUT, CROSSED THE WHOLE LIST or SPOILED THE BALLOT 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.8

 

Peculiarities of candidates’ voters

 

Age dependencies

Petro Poroshenko received a bit more votes from the older voters: 51.2% votes by 18–29 y.o., 57.4% – by 30–39 y.o., 56.8 – 40–49 y.o., 57.9% – 50–59 y.o. and the most 59.1% – among voters older than 60 y.o.

The number of Yulia Tymoshenko’s voters grew with age, the older the voters the bigger the number of votes: 9.6% among people aged up to 30 years old and 14.5% among voters older than 60.

Oleg Lyashko, on the contrary, has younger voters: 15.6% among people younger than 30, 9.9% – among people aged 30–39, 7.2% – among aged  40–49, 5.5% – among aged 50–59 and 4.8% – among older than 60 years old. 

Voters of AnatolyGritsenko and Sergey Tigipko are not quite varying in regard of the age.


4. Presidentialcandidatesratingsamong population groups according to the education level

  Incomplete secondary Complete secondary Vocational secondary Incomplete higher Higher
POROSHENKO Petro Oleksiyovytch 51.0 54.4 55.8 51.3 59.1
TYMOSHENKO Yulia Volodymyrivna 18.7 14.5 13.4 10.4 10.2
LYASHKO Oleg Valeriyovytch 10.0 9.8 8.3 13.5 6.1
GRITSENKO Anatoliy Stepanovytch 4.5 4.9 6.0 6.7 7.7
TIGIPKO Sergiy Leonidovytch 3.9 4.0 4.4 3.8 5.3
DOBKIN Mykhailo Markovytch 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 1.5
BOGOMOLETS Olga Vadymivna 1.1 1.8 1.6 3.8 2.3
RABINOVYTCH Vadym Zinoviyovytch 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.9
TYAGNYBOK Oleg Yaroslavovytch 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4
SYMONENKO Petro Mykolayovytch 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.8
YAROSH Dmytro Anatoliyovytch 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.6 1.4
GRYNENKO Andriy Valeriyovytch 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
KONOVALIUK Valeriy Illich 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3
BOYKO Yuriy Anatoliyovytch 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
MALOMUZH Mykola Grygorovytch 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2
KUZMIN Renat Raveliyovytch 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
TSUSHKO Vasyl Petrovytch 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
KLYMENKO Olexander Ivanovytch 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
SARANOV Volodymyr Georgiyovytch 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
KUIBIDA Vasyl Stepanovytch 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SHKIRYAK Zoryan Nestorovytch 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
CROSSED EVERYONE OUT, CROSSED THE WHOLE LIST or SPOILED THE BALLOT 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1

 

Peculiarities of candidates’ voters

 

Dependencies on the education level

Petro Poroshenko receivedthe majority of votes from voters with higher education (59.1%) and fewer votes from voters with incomplete secondary education.

Yulia Tymoshenko received the majority of votes from voters with incomplete secondary education (18.7%) and each next education group gave less votes: complete secondary 14.5%, vocational secondary – 13.4%, incomplete higher – 10.4%, higher – 10.2%.

OlegLyashko received the majority of votes from people with incomplete higher education 13.5% and the minority from voters with higher education (6.1%).

Anatoly Gritsenko received the most votes from voters with higher education (7.7%) and the least votes from people with incomplete secondary education.

Sergiy Tigipko voters did not demonstrate significant differences in educational level.

 

 

 

Table 5. Presidentialcandidatesratings among inhabitants of Ukrainian macro-regions

  Western Central Southern Eastern
POROSHENKO Petro Oleksiyovytch 62.4 59.8 46.3 39.0
TYMOSHENKO Yulia Volodymyrivna 14.2 13.8 10.0 7.1
LYASHKO Oleg Valeriyovytch 9.7 9.6 4.5 3.6
GRITSENKO Anatoliy Stepanovytch 6.1 6.9 6.2 4.9
TIGIPKO Sergiy Leonidovytch 1.1 2.5 12.2 9.1
DOBKIN Mykhailo Markovytch 0.2 0.4 2.7 17.3
BOGOMOLETS Olga Vadymivna 1.5 1.6 3.3 2.5
RABINOVYTCH Vadym Zinoviyovytch 0.6 1.2 4.8 3.4
TYAGNYBOK Oleg Yaroslavovytch 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9
SYMONENKO Petro Mykolayovytch 0.4 0.5 2.5 3.5
YAROSH Dmytro Anatoliyovytch 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.5
GRYNENKO Andriy Valeriyovytch 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.0
KONOVALIUK Valeriy Illich 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6
BOYKO Yuriy Anatoliyovytch 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3
MALOMUZH Mykola Grygorovytch 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
KUZMIN Renat Raveliyovytch 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3
TSUSHKO Vasyl Petrovytch 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
KLYMENKO Olexander Ivanovytch 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
SARANOV Volodymyr Georgiyovytch 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
KUIBIDA Vasyl Stepanovytch 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
SHKIRYAK Zoryan Nestorovytch 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
CROSSED EVERYONE OUT, CROSSED THE WHOLE LIST or SPOILED THE BALLOT 0.5 0.6 2.4 5.4


Peculiarities of candidates’ voters

Regional differences

Petro Poroshenko has won in all regions of Ukraine. He received more votes in the Western (62.4%) and the Central (59.8%) and fewer votes in the Southern (46.3%) and the Eastern (39.0%) regions.

Yulia Tymoshenko had more support in the western (14.2%), the Central (13.8%) regions, and less support in the Southern (10.0%) and the Eastern (7.1%) regions.

Oleg Lyashko was more popular in the Western (9.7%) and the Central (9.6%) regions and less popular in the Southern (4.5%) and the Eastern (3.6%) regions.

Anatoly Gritsenko received equal support in the Western (6.1%), the Central (6.9%) and the Southern (6.2%) regions, and a bit less in the Eastern (4.9%).

Sergiy Tigipko was supported in the Southern (12.2%) and the Eastern (9.1%) regions and weakly supported in the Western (1.1%) and the Central (2.5%) regions.

Mykhailo Dobkin possessed the second place in the Eastern region (17.3%) and scored few votes in the rest of the regions.


Table
6. When did the voters of the main candidates decided for whom to vote

   % among all voters on May 25 % of those, who voted for …
POROSHENKO Petro Oleksiyovytch TYMOSHENKO Yulia Volodymyrivna LYASHKO Oleg Valeriyovytch GRITSENKO Anatoliy Stepanovytch TIGIPKO Sergiy Leonidovytch DOBKIN Mykhailo Markovytch RABINOVYTCH Vadym Zinoviyovytch BOGOMOLETS Olga Vadymivna SYMONENKO Petro Mykolayovytch TYAGNYBOK Oleg Yaroslavovytch YAROSH Dmytro Anatoliyovytch
I was a supporter of this candidate long before the elections 40.0 39.1 62.0 32.7 33.5 39.1 36.5 13.5 24.6 62.4 50.2 35.4
As soon as elections campaign started, more than three months ago 16.1 19.3 8.3 14.8 12.4 11.6 15.4 10.7 18.0 10.9 9.6 18.3
More than a month prior to the elections 11.8 12.9 7.1 13.5 12.6 13.8 13.6 10.0 7.7 4.2 9.6 11.3
During the last month before elections 12.1 12.4 6.5 14.5 15.2 12.0 11.4 24.1 13.7 4.9 10.2 12.5
During the last week before the elections 8.2 6.7 5.7 11.2 13.8 9.8 9.5 24.6 11.4 3.0 10.2 7.7
During the last day before elections 4.8 4.0 5.4 6.5 6.1 5.8 3.7 5.2 7.6 7.3 4.8 3.8
At the polling station 3.7 2.7 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.2 5.6 9.0 12.4 5.0 3.9 8.6
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY / I DO NOT KNOW 3.2 2.9 2.1 3.2 2.1 2.9 4.3 2.9 4.5 2.3 1.5 2.3

 

In general, 40% of the voters have made their choice before the elections campaign was started.

The biggest percentage of voters that made their choice in advance was among the voters of Yulia Tymoshenko (62%), Petro Symonenko (62.4%) and Oleg Tyagnybok (50.2%).

20% of voters made their choice during the last month before elections; the majority of such voters are in the electorate of Vadym Rabinovytch (49%), Anatoly Gritsenko (29%) and Oleg Lyashko (26%).

8.5%of the voters made their choice during the last day before elections and at the polling station.  The majority of these “spontaneous” voters among the voters of Olga Bogomolets (20%, at that 12% at the polling station) and Vadym Rabinovytch (14.2%, 9% at the polling station).

Table7CharacteristicsofthePresidential candidates’ voters

    % among those who voted for the certain candidate
    % among all voters on May 25 POROSHENKO Petro TYMOSHENKO Yulia LYASHKO Oleg GRITSENKO Anatoly TIGIPKO Sergiy
Gender Man 46.1 46.3 40.3 48.6 51.2 43.6
Woman 53.9 53.7 59.7 51.4 48.8 56.4
Age 18-29 y.o. 16.4 15.0 12.6 31.5 14.6 16.6
30-39 y.o. 18.7 18.2 17.0 22.7 17.6 20.4
40-49 y.o. 19.2 19.4 18.3 17.0 23.3 19.2
50-59 y.o. 21.4 22.0 24.1 14.5 22.8 21.3
60 y.o. and older 24.2 25.4 28.0 14.2 21.7 22.6
Region of residence Western 29.9 33.5 34.0 36.6 29.1 7.0
Central 39.3 42.1 43.2 47.0 42.6 20.1
Southern 22.9 18.9 18.3 12.9 22.3 58.1
Eastern 7.9 5.4 4.4 3.5 6.0 14.7
Education Incomplete secondary 6.0 5.4 8.8 7.2 4.2 5.0
Secondary 18.2 17.6 20.9 21.9 14.1 15.8
Vocational secondary 33.8 33.6 36.0 34.5 31.9 32.3
Incomplete higher 5.5 5.0 4.6 9.1 5.8 4.5
Higher 36.5 38.4 29.8 27.3 44.0 42.4
Locality type City 56.7 57.8 48.1 49.1 63.2 63.2
Town 9.2 8.2 7.9 8.1 9.8 11.6
Village 34.1 34.0 44.0 42.8 27.1 25.2

 

Table7 (continued)

    % among those who voted for the certain candidate
    DOBKIN Mykhailo Markovytch RABINOVYTCH Vadym Zinoviyovytch BOGOMOLETS Olga Vadymivna SYMONENKO Petro Mykolayovytch TYAGNYBOK Oleg Yaroslavovytch YAROSH Dmytro Anatoliyovytch
Gender Man 41.0 47.9 37.7 52.6 51.9 60.9
Woman 59.0 52.1 62.3 47.4 48.1 39.1
Age 18-29 y.o. 20.1 14.5 19.1 8.9 13.2 38.7
30-39 y.o. 14.2 23.8 21.6 5.9 26.9 22.5
40-49 y.o. 16.5 16.6 22.6 14.7 20.3 17.4
50-59 y.o. 21.6 27.2 19.6 15.9 19.2 16.0
60 y.o. and older 27.6 18.0 17.0 54.6 20.4 5.4
Region of residence Western 2.2 9.2 21.4 11.5 31.7 26.8
Central 7.3 23.4 31.8 16.7 41.6 33.9
Southern 28.6 54.2 37.3 48.7 21.1 28.3
Eastern 61.9 13.2 9.5 23.1 5.5 11.0
Education Incomplete secondary 8.2 3.4 3.3 8.2 6.3 4.1
Secondary 22.4 17.3 16.6 25.3 18.9 11.1
Vocational secondary 37.5 35.4 27.6 37.5 31.3 24.5
Incomplete higher 6.5 6.4 10.4 3.0 5.8 8.5
Higher 25.4 37.4 42.0 26.0 37.7 51.7
Locality type City 55.3 68.8 66.0 53.0 60.1 74.4
Town 19.5 7.5 8.1 14.0 7.0 5.8
Village 25.3 23.8 25.9 33.0 32.9 19.8

10.6.2014
Go up | Back
FILTR BY DATE
Year:
Month: