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Electoral intensions of the population of 211 district (Holosiyivsky District, Kyiv): Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine

On September 18 - 23, 2014 Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducted the public opinion survey in a district ¹211. It was held using the method of computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) with the random sample with quota selection at the last stage. The sample is deemed to be representative for population of the district aged 18 and above, 803 respondents were interviewed.

Statistical sample deviation (with probability of 0.95 without design-effect) does not exceed:
3.5% — for index close to 50%;
3,1% — for index close to 25%;
2,3% — for index close to 10%;
1,6% — for index close to 5%.


If the elections to the parliament (Verkhovna Rada) of Ukraine through the majority system took place in the end of September, the following results for the population of the district aged 18 and above would be obsereved:

  • 26,5% would vote for the candidate of the political party “Block of Petro Poroshenko” – E. Rybchynskyi;

  • 6,9% - for the candidate from the Ukrainian Union "Batkivshchyna" - S. Teryokhin;

  • 3,1% - for the candidate from the Radical party of O. Lyashko – V. Yanson;

  • 2,4% - for the candidate from the political party “Narodnyi front” – M. Danevych;

  • 0,5% - for the candidate from the political party “Sylna Ukraina” – A. Chornyh;

  • 11,1% would spoil the ballot;

  • 15,4% would not participate in the elections;

  • 34,1% have not decided yet for whom to vote.


Therefore, if the elections to the Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) of Ukraine through the majority system took place in the end of September and those, who has not decided yet, did not come to the elections, about 40% of the voters would participate and their votes would distribute in the following way:

  • 67,1% would vote for the candidate from the political party “Block  of Petro Poroshenko” – E. Rybchynskyi;

  • 17,6% - for the candidate from the Ukrainian Union "Batkivshchyna" - S. Teryokhin;

  • 7,8% - for the candidate from the Radical party of O. Lyashko – V. Yanson;

  • 6,2% - for the candidate from the political party “Narodnyi front” – M. Danevych;

  • 1,3% - for the candidate from the political party “Sylna Ukraina” – A. Chornyh;

 

Addition

The question about nominal parliamentary elections through the majority system was asked as follows:

What would you choose, if the list of candidates was like this one?

  % of all citizens aged 18 and above % of those, who is ready to participate and to make a choice
Mykola Danevych  («Narodnyi front») 2.4 6.2
Yevgen Rybchinskyi («Blockof Petro Poroshenko») 26.5 67.1
Sergii Teriohin (UU «Batkivshchyna») 6.9 17.6
Victoria Yanson (Radical party of O.  Lyashko) 3.1 7.8
Andrii Chornyh  («Sylna Ukraina») 0.5 1.3
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 11.1 ---
WOULD NOT VOTE 15.4 ---
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 34.1 ---

3.10.2014
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